India vs New Zealand Prediction: Back Kiwi to be top bat in final

| Saturday 7th March 2026, 6:58

Saturday 7th March 2026, 6:58

Jamie Pacheco previews the much-awaited, mouth-watering final of the T20 World Cup between India and New Zealand, starting at 13:30 on Sunday, March 8, and live on Sky Sports Main Event.

Jamie isn’t getting over-excited on the staking front just because it’s a World Cup final, but has found two good bets he likes the look of. Here are his India vs New Zealand Betting Tips...

India vs New Zealand Betting Tips

0.5pts Hardik Pandya India Top Bowler @ 9/2
0.5pts New Zealand as Team of Top Batter @ 8/5

*odds correct at time of publication

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. 00:00 06/03/26 – 23:59 13/03/26. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1)+ on Sports in 7 days. £20 Sports & £20 in Acca Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excls & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

India

Thursday’s game against England was one of the most entertaining matches of cricket you’ll ever see and a fantastic advert for the format.

A feast of runs, endless sixes, a couple of the best catches you’ll ever see (more on that in a bit), some brilliant bowling and a game that swung one way and the other in the chase.

As is often the case, most Indian played their part to an extent, but four deserve special praise.

Sanju Samson followed up his match-winning effort against the Windies with yet another one here by smashing 89 off 42, though of course he should have been out well before when Harry Brook dropped a sitter that could have resulted in a very different, well, result.

Axar Patel took an outstanding catch to get rid of dangerman Brook and then performed more heroics on the boundary, flicking it back to Shivam Dube to complete the catch, while also dismissing Tom Banton with the ball.

Hardik Pandya contributed with a quickfire 27 off 12 and then claimed two wickets as well as helping to run out centurion Jacob Bethell.

And then there was Jasprit Bumrah. With England full of momentum, that 17^th over stopped them in their tracks with some unbelievable bowling, leaving them too much to do in the last two.

As is so often the case, it was Samson ‘the batsman’ walking away with the POTM award, but Bumrah’s 1-33 doesn’t begin to tell the full story of how much he did towards getting that win. Mind you, any of the four would have been deserved winners of the match gong.

And for the record, India very much deserve to be in the final.

They should remain unchanged, unless Varun Chakravrthy’s costly overs and lack of confidence right now bring Kuldeep Yadav into the team.

India Likely XI

Samson, Sharma, Kishan, Sky Yadav, Varma, Pandya, Dube, Axar, Singh, Bumrah, Chakravarthy

New Zealand

Yet again, they’ve flown under the radar, kept themselves to themselves and just focused on finding a route to the final.

The ultimate ‘team’ made up of team players.

You’ll struggle to find a more comprehensive win in the semi-finals of a World Cup than the manner in which they beat South Africa, chasing down what looked like an ok total with the greatest of ease.

Tim Seifert and Finn Allen hit it to all parts in the chase after five of their six bowlers took at least one wicket.

A word on Rachin Ravindra. He started the tournament slowly but has gotten better, and curiously, his contributions have mostly come with the ball. He’s now taken four, three and two wickets in his last three games after hardly bowling at all before that.

James Neesham surprisingly came into the side in the semi for the first time and it could well be a three-way fight for that place between him, Jacob Dufy and Ish Sodhi. The rest of the team picks itself.

New Zealand Likely XI

Seifert, Allen, Ravindra, Phillips, Mitchell, Chapman, Santner, McConchie, Duffy/Sodhi/Neesham, Henry, Ferguson.

Pitch and conditions

We’re at Ahmedabad for the big final. Understandable that they want the biggest cricket stadium in the world, by some distance, to host the big one.

Expect big runs. Maybe not to the same extent as we got in Mumbai on Thursday, but it may not be far off.

The average runs per over here in T20Is is 9.16 but with increasingly bigger bats, more powerful players, more shots and above all, more intent than ever before, I’d say 210 is a minimum batting first.

It will be interesting to see what the skipper winning the toss will want to do, though.

India vs New Zealand odds

India are 2/5, New Zealand are 15/8. No surprise.

In addition to being at home, India have shown these last few years at the last T20 World Cup and multiple Asia Cup finals (plus the recent Champions Trophy, against New Zealand, over 50 overs) that they handle the pressure of big finals well.

Then there’s the Bumrah factor.

It’s the biggest of trump cards to know they can turn to a bowler who is very unlikely to be hit around the park, very likely to take 1-2 wickets every game, can be brought on at any stage, and know that he’ll perform magic.

Then again, if Allen and Seifert get going as they did against a usually strong SA attack once more, who knows? Ravindra, Matt Henry, and Glenn Philips are also elite players, and as we know, their fielding and running between the wickets is always excellent; factors not to be underestimated.

That’s why the prices are he way they are, rather than India being shorter. I hope New Zealand win because I’ve always liked them, but I’ll leave this market alone in terms of putting my money on it.

0.5pts Hardik Pandya India Top Bowler @ 9/2

Hardik Pandya was, curiously, the only player to take two wickets for India on Friday. He could be their top bowler again here.

The first reason is that India have (mostly) only been using five bowlers. It’s true that Dube was given one over, the last, against England, but that was because everyone other than Axar had been bowled out, and they didn’t want to take a chance with Axar’s spin.

But I’m not sure they trust Dube against the very best in normal circumstances, so this is likely to be a five-runner race, meaning Pandya should bowl his four overs.

Chakravarthy’s confidence looks shot, while batsmen respect Bumrah so much that they may focus more on not getting out to him than scoring off him. A bit like what happened with Rashid Khan a few years ago.

Pandya also has the advantage of bowling at the beginning and at the death, the best time to take wickets. He also has the advantage of being 9/2 while all the rest are considerably shorter. A dead-heat with two or three bowlers each taking two wickets would still give us a decent profit.

India vs New Zealand - Top Home Team Bowler

Hardik Pandya

9/2

Bet Here

Odds correct at time of publishing.

0.5pts New Zealand as Team of Top Batter @ 8/5

The other bet that interests me is this one: that a New Zealand player is the game’s top scorer at 8/5.

If this were, say, India v Nepal, then yes, you can see why an Indian batsman may smash a quick 80 or 90 (especially if batting first) and a Nepalese batter may do well to get 40 or 50 when up against the likes of Bumrah or Axar Patel.

But players such as Allen, Seifert, Phillips or Ravindra are just as capable of getting 80-odd or whatever as Kishan, Samson or Sky Yadav are.

Let’s remember that Allen got to 100 against a strong Proteas attack just days ago, for example. Something no Indian batter has done in all tournament.

In other matches, Seifert got 89 not out and Phillips 76 not out, proof that all of those mentioned can get big scores.

The Indian boys are up against some pretty good bowlers in Henry, Lockie Ferguson, Mitch Santner and so on, so just because the boys in blue are hot favourites to win the match, that’s not to say that one of their batsmen is going to get a big one rather than sharing the runs around.

8/5 on a man in black being the top scorer will me just fine.

India vs New Zealand - Team of Top Batter

New Zealand

8/5

Bet Here

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: