India v Bangladesh Prediction: Big-priced Tigers’ lower-middle order batters could be in business

India host Bangladesh on Thursday at Chennai with a start time of 05:00 as they look to close in on a Top two spot in the WTC. The match is live on TNT Sports 1.

Jamie Pacheco has a 9/2 pick for India first innings top bowler and 11/2 and 18/1 chances for Bangladesh top batsman, which will be lively runners if there’s a Bangladesh batting collapse. You can check out all of his India vs Bangladesh Predictions in his full match preview below...

India  

Having won the T20 World Cup a few months ago, India now turn their attention to trying to secure a Top 2 spot in the ICC Test Championship, a competition in which they’ve twice made the final, and twice lost.  

The last time they were in Test action was back in March, losing the first Test against England before bouncing back to win the next four. Before that, they tied a Series 1-1 in South Africa and beat the West Indies away, so they’ve been in good form over the last couple of years.  

The big guns are all there to make sure there are no slip-ups: Virat Kohli, skipper Rohit Sharma, Ravindra Jadeja, Ravi Ashwin, Jasprit Bumrah and perhaps most significantly of all, Rishabh Pant, finally ready to return to Test cricket after almost two years out as a result of that life-threatening car crash.  

India will play five bowlers. Four of them pick themselves (see below), then it will be a toss-up between Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Akash Deep and Yash Dayal. Given the pitch is likely to have bounce and carry on the first two days, one of the last two on that list will probably play.  

Possible XI: Sharma, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Rahul, Pant, Jadeja, Ashwin, Dayal/Deep, Bumrah, Siraj.  

Bangladesh  

The Tigers couldn’t possibly come into this match in a better mood than they are. Not only did they beat Pakistan in a Test match for the first time in their history last month, but they did so twice in two Tests. Away from home.  

Of course, Pakistan are a notoriously flaky side on their day, capable of brilliance, capable of incompetence.  

But that’s not to take anything away from a side who showed skill, guts, determination, discipline and bottle to get over the line in back-to-back Tests.  

There was a certain irony about winning that Series without a significant contribution from Shakib Al-Hasan, Bangladesh’s best-ever player. After 450 appearances for his country across three formats, he looks a somewhat disinterested figure these days, presumably already thinking about his future career as a politician; but he still adds fantastic balance to the side and may up his game here when it most matters.  

Possible XI: Hasan, Islam, Shanto, Haque, Rahim, Shakib, Das, Mehidi Hasan Miraz, Mahmud, Taskin, Rana.  

Pitch and conditions  

Chepauk in Chennai is a tricky pitch to decipher at the best of times. What we do know is that it will be a red-soil pitch that will offer something in terms of quality carry with the possibility of reverse swing. But it’s been scorching in Chennai of late, so the pitch will surely dry up and the spinners will be bang in the game; but they may have to wait till day three to be a real threat.  

India have won four of their last five here, the odd one out being a win for England here back in 2021.   

There have been some big first-innings scores here over the last few years and if India bat first, expect 400 as a bare minimum.  

India vs Bangladesh Test Match Odds

India have won 11 of their 13 matches against Bangladesh, drawing the other two.  

Curiously, only three of those 11 were played in India and the hosts won the lot.  

The Tigers earned plenty of respect and admiration for that Series win over Pakistan but they’re unlikely to face the same levels of complacency here against a side that’s practically unbeatable at home and doesn‘t switch off. It also has match-winners in it everywhere you look.   

It’s 13/2 the draw, 12/1 a first-ever win for the Tigers against India and just 2/13 on Rohit Sharma’s men. It’s not easy to make a case for the first two and the latter price isn’t the sort to be tipping at.  

India Top Bowler 

The India top bowler market has been priced up as though the wicket is going to be taking spin pretty much from ball one, but that’s unlikely to happen.  

As we know, it’s a red soil pitch, so the quicks should the ones in the game for at least the first three days, which puts us off Ravi Ashwin (9/4), Ravindra Jadeja (13/5) and Axar Patel (3/1); the latter may well not play anyway.  

At least the Betfred odds-compilers have recognised that Bumrah (23/10), probably the best fast bowler in the word in any format, is the man to beat.   

But at almost exactly twice the price, you can back Mohammad Siraj (9/2). His strike rate of 53 in Tests isn’t too far behind the 45 of Bumrah, or at least not far behind enough to justify the gulf in the odds.  

The real value on paper might be 6/1 chance Yash Dayal but he may not play anyway and if he does, he’ll be making his Test debut. So it might be a bit much to expect him to be able to beat the others; but the price certainly looks big.