India vs Pakistan Prediction: 21/10 Outsiders to stay afloat in the competition

It’s India v Pakistan on Sunday, June 9 (15:30, Sky Sports Cricket) in New York, not just the biggest game in cricket but arguably the biggest rivalry and most anticipated-contest in the whole of international sport.

James Pacheco thinks the pitch might be a great leveller for Pakistan at 21/10, while Shadab Khan (9/1) and Ravindra Jadeja (5/1) provide value betting options on the side markets in his India vs Pakistan T20 World Cup Predictions...

India

Theirs was a good win over Ireland. Everything suggested it should have been pretty straightforward if you were to look at the teams man-for-man and consider the difference in experience. But then again, tell that to the likes of Pakistan, Namibia, Ireland (against Canada), Sri Lanka and New Zealand, five favourites in a row being rolled over since Wednesday afternoon.

The total India were chasing was so low that it’s not worth discussing the performance of their batters too much, so instead it’s a case of praising their bowlers. Yes, the pitch offered plenty of assistance but then here’s what the likes of Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammad Siraj and Hardik Pandya didn’t offer: any freebies. Nothing wide, nothing too full and then it was just a case of letting the wicket do its thing.

Bumrah walked away with the Player of the Match award for his 2/6 off 3 but the biggest positive will have been that Pandya took 3/27 off 4. His bowling (or lack of it these last couple of years) was one of the areas of concern surrounding India going into the tournament, so they’ll feel better about their chances now.

Rohit Sharma retired hurt on 52 but that’s partly because the game was up anyway when he walked off; he’s not missing this one. If they think they can trust Pandya with four overs, they may be tempted to bring in Sanju Samson for Axar Patel but that would only leave them with Shivam Dube as a sixth-bowling option and he doesn’t bowl much these days.

Possible XI: Kohli, Sharma, Yadav, Pant, Dube, Pandya, Jadeja, Axar/Samson, Bumrah, Singh, Siraj.

Pakistan

Defeat to USA will go down as one of the all-time shocks in a T20 World Cup for those who don’t follow the sport on a daily basis but the signs were there that an upset could be on the cards: chasing was the way to go, USA were on a high after a win against Canada, Pakistan are often guilty of scoring too slowly and preparations for the men in green were limited to two matches in England in soggy conditions.

Still, they should have won. Haris Rauf had four to defend off the last ball and bowled one in the slot when he had numerous other options available given his pace. It shouldn’t have gone to a Super Over if he’d kept his cool. You also have to question the wisdom of giving the Super Over to Mohammad Amir, who conceded seven runs just in wides in that over and 18 in total. Why wouldn’t you bowl your best bowler in Shaheen Shah Afridi?

So plenty of work for Pakistan to do to make the next stage. They’d like to have Imad Wasim available for this one if he recovers from injury because in addition to accurate left-arm spin that can be used in the Powerplay overs, he also bats.

Possible XI: Rizwan, Babar, Usman Khan, Zaman, Shadab Khan, Azam Khan, Ahmed, Afridi, Rauf, Wasim/Shah, Amir.

Pitch and conditions

It’s not just New York that never sleeps. The groundsmen looking after the pitch in the Big Apple has been the subject of much criticism after first-innings scores of 77, 96 and 137 and has been tasked with trying to improve a wicket that at times has been unplayable, so will have been working round the clock to amend that. Not that it’s his fault. Drop-in pitches like this one can go one of two ways and, in this case, has gone the way of having a bit of everything in it: irregular bounce, spin, seam, lateral movement, you name it.

140-145 could be very competitive batting first and though chasing has been the way to go in most cases this tournament, both skippers may fancy runs on the board.

India vs Pakistan Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main India vs Pakistan T20 World Cup market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

So, India are a good bet here at 4/11 considering what happened over the last few days, right? Wrong.

For starters, this has been a tournament for outsiders and plenty of fingers have been burnt backing short-priced favourites.

Secondly, the four matches between these two across two Asia Cups and two World Cups have resulted in two-wins-a-piece so India aren’t as dominant in this fixture as they have been in the past.

And crucially, the New York pitch should prevent India’s batsmen from playing their big shots, a big leveller. Pakistan are always poor favourites but they can be good as outsiders and if they’re not up for this fixture, they shouldn’t even be out there.

Given it’s hard to know whether it’s best batting first or chasing, I’m not too fussed about the outcome of the toss, so will just be taking the straight 21/10 pre-match.

Pakistan Top Batsman

Given the way Arshdeep Singh and Mohammad Siraj bowled at the top of the innings against Ireland, I wouldn’t want to be backing openers Babar Azam (9/4) or Mohammad Rizwan (11/4) here. It will be even worse for them if India decide to unleash Bumrah from the start.

The first two Khans-Usman (4/1) and Azam (10/1) – are a bit new to this sort of fixture so may fold under pressure, while Azam has been particularly out of form, not getting tuns in England and getting out for a golden duck against the USA.

Instead, I prefer the third Khan, Shadab. He just missed out on winning last time out with his impressive 40 off 25 just trumped by Babar’s pedestrian 44 off 43 and batting at five, can give us a good run for our money at a big-looking 9/1.

India Top Bowler

Jadeja was under-used against Ireland, bowling just the one over, not batting and remarkably for him, dropping a catch.

But he’ll have a bigger role to play here for sure with the ball and may find turn from the pitch, without having to provide it itself.

Pakistan may decide to play it safe, keep wickets intact at the top and go after the spinners, which could well play into Jadeja’s hands. At 5/1 he’s alongside Axar (who may not play) the biggest price of the India’s bowlers and that’s good enough for a man who won’t feel the heat of a match like this and loves these occasions.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...