England v Sri Lanka Prediction: Keep faith in the Pope after 8.2 points First Test profit

England start the Second Test against Sri Lanka on Thursday, start time 11am, 1-0 up and with a perfect record so far this summer in Test matches.      

Jamie Pacheco picked 12/1 and 16/5 winners from his three selections last time out for a profit of 8.2 points and is looking at old favourite Ollie Pope and the effervescent Kamindu Mendis this time round as he takes us through his England vs Sri Lanka for the Second Test this week...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

First Test Recap  

England had to work harder for the win than many would have thought. Twice Sri Lanka's top order folded like a pack of cards, twice their lower-middle order showed plenty of fight, discipline and courage to get them to something resembling a competitive score. Their bowlers had their moments too and even a relatively small total to chase on Day Four looked under threat when three England wickets fell for not that many, before the calm head of Joe Root and the aggressive stroke play of Jamie Smith eventually saw them home.  

Speaking of Smith, his first-innings 111 was almost exactly twice as many runs as anyone else (Harry Brook got 56) managed, handing us a 12/1 winner with plenty to spare.  

The winners didn't end there though, with Asitha Fernando's four wickets also handing us a Sri Lanka first innings Top Bowler payout at 16/5. Given the only other bet in the match was Ollie Pope (also for England First Innings Top Bat at 5/1) and the outcome was the absolute best we could have hoped for.   

0.5 points on Smith at 12/1 meant a profit of 6 points, plus a 1-point winner at 16/5 on A Fernando is a 3.2 points profit, minus the 1pt 'losing' bet on Pope means we returned a profit of 8.2 points. Cheers Jamie (Smith) but our work isn't done, so let's hope for more of the same here.   

England 

Smith is already looking the real deal as an extremely competent keeper who can turn the game on its head with fearless batting, good running and a priceless ability to bat well with the tail. His emergence over the last few weeks is arguably more significant than the likely clean sweep of Test wins this English summer, with the Ashes already on everyone's mind.   

Chris Woakes was his usual reliable self with six wickets in the game and some runs, Gus Atkinson looks to be a good find as a reliable wicket-taker and Root played his part in that fourth-innings chase. Dan Lawrence had a mediocre start to his career as a Test opener with 30 and 34. 

Mark Wood will miss out after sustaining a thigh injury but he may have been rested for this match anyway. 20-year-old 6ft 7 left-arm quick Josh Hull of Leicestershire has been called up and would be a far more exciting inclusion than Olly Stone.  

Possible XI:  Lawrence, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Smith, Woakes, Potts, Atkinson, Bashar, Stone/Hull.  

Sri Lanka  

They may have lost but they certainly made a game out of it, and it certainly wasn't for lack of trying that they went down.  

Experienced middle-order duo Angelo Matthews and Dinesh Chandimal both hit good second innings fifties, skipper Dhananjaya de Silva got a superb first-innings 74, while best of all was the counter-attacking 113 from all-rounder Kamindu Mendis which, remarkably, was his third century in just four Tests. And this from a man batting at seven. If only their top-order had got some runs.  

Asitha Fernando bowled well as we already know, while spinner Prabath Jayasuriya took six wickets in the match and will be hoping there's turn in the wicket this time round.  

Keeper Chandimal injured his thumb but still batted and should be ok to play here. If not, Sadeera Samarawickrama will probably take the gloves and bat at Chandimal's spot at five.  

Possible XI: Karunaratne, Madushka, Kusal Mendis, Matthews, Chandimal/Samarawickrama, Dhananjaya, Kamindu Mendis, Rathnayake, A Fernando, V Fernando, Jayasuriya.   

Pitch and conditions  

England have a pretty mixed record at Lord's of late with three wins and three defeats from their last six, going back to 2021. All of India, South Africa and Australia managed to win here over that period.  

121, 416, 172, 165, 132 and 364 (most recent first) are the last six first innings scores, suggesting it really depends on how the wicket is prepared and conditions on the day as to what is a par score batting first, with those totals suggesting that it's far from easy on occasion.  

The forecast is pretty good though, so don't expect many interruptions.  

England vs Sri Lanka Odds

England are 2/9 so slightly bigger than the 1/4 last time. I'm not sure I agree with that. Not only did Sri Lanka put in a better effort than many thought but England's recent record at HQ is not great, as we've just explained.  

The likely absence of rain and some low first innings scores of late at Lord's suggest the 9/1 draw is deservedly the outsider of the three. The 5/1 on Sri Lanka is somewhat of interest especially with Wood's rockets out of the picture. But the tried and trusted strategy of trying to get 1/2 on England in-running, which has worked well all summer, once again looks the way to go.    

England Top Batsman  

My tip on Ollie Pope last time out didn't come off but somewhat perversely, that opened the door to our 12/1 winner Jamie Smith. 

However, Pope got out to a so-called 'jaffa' courtesy of our Top Bowler selection Asitha Fernando and that certainly doesn't mean our man has all of a sudden lost it, or that he's feeling the pressure of captaincy. 

Root, despite his solid 62 in the fourth innings, continues to disappoint England top batsman backers of him and his record of first innings wins is now even worse than it was in my preview last week: now just two from 23! So, you can see why the 13/5 can be dismissed. 

Lawrence (18/5) looked a bit out of sorts batting in a position he's not accustomed to, so I don't fancy him either at the current price.   

So good luck to Ben Duckett (7/2) or Harry Brook (18/5) if they find some form here but Pope continues to look too big at 4/1 for a man of his ability.   

Sri Lanka Top Batsman  

Can third-innings centurion Kamindu Mendis deliver once again? Hard to say, hard to know, but here's what we do know. 

His record of three centuries and two fifties in just seven knocks in Test cricket is exceptional and though an average of 92 will inevitably come down to at least half of that over time, it can't be ignored.  

Nor can the fact that Sri Lank's top order has obviously struggled against the swinging new ball. The highest score their Top 3 produced in six knocks between them at Old Trafford was 27 and there were two ducks and a further two single-digit scores in those six innings. Mathews is to be respected as ever, as is Dhananjaya but 18/5 and 9/2 respectively, look on the short side.  

And with plenty of other betting firms going 9/2 or 5/1 at best on him, I think the 6/1 on Betfred is pretty fair.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...