England vs Sri Lanka 1st Test Prediction: Go with stand-in Pope at a stand-out 4/1

England start their second Test series of the summer at Old Trafford on Wednesday, with a start time 11.00 on Sky Sports Cricket, against a Sri Lankan side fresh from a 3-0 ODI Series win over India, but who should find this a very different sort of challenge.    

Jamie Pacheco has found some value in a Sri Lankan for first innings top bowler honours and thinks stand-in skipper Ollie Pope can come good at 4/1 as he takes us through his England vs Sri Lanka Predictions...

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England 

England are fresh from a somewhat predictable 3-0 win over the West Indies, but it should be remembered that the Windies had their moments in that Series and that with slightly cooler heads, a bit more experience and a couple of slices of luck, they may have won one of those.  

We all knew there would be no James Anderson here after his international retirement immediately after the First Test last month. But what we didn't know was that Zak Crawley and Ben Stokes would miss the Series as well, Crawley injured his finger in the Third Test while fielding, while skipper Stokes damaged his hamstring playing in the Hundred last week.  

England were quick to announce that Dan Lawrence (normally a middle-order batsman) would take Crawley's place at the top of the order. Vice-captain Ollie Pope will lead the side but what about replacing Stokes, the player?  

England have decided to promote Jamie Smith to six, bat Chris Woakes at seven and bring in Matthew Potts.  

Possible XI:  Lawrence, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Smith, Woakes, Potts, Atkinson, Bashar, Wood.  

Sri Lanka  

Sri Lanka will be full of confidence after beating India 3-0 at home in an ODI Series, their first win over their neighbours in a bilateral series in 27 years.  

But that was Sri Lanka the ODI team, not the Test team, and a move to the longer format in conditions that couldn't be more different to those in Colombo a few weeks ago almost feel like they're playing a totally different sport.  

Legendary hard-hitting opener Sanath Jayasuriya is now in charge as coach on an interim basis, and it will be interesting to see what brand of cricket he wants his side to play in Tests though again, how they play at home and how they play at home, may be totally different styles.  

Batsmen Angelo Matthews, Dinesh Chandimal and Dimuth Karunaratne are all in their mid-thirties and have toured England twice before. They'll need their experience of playing here against the moving ball and for that reason, Sri Lanka should play all three of them.  

Other than that, it's hard to know who exactly will play beyond skipper Dananjaya de Silva and the two Fernandos (no relation) – Vishwa and Asifa – a task not made easier by the fact the squad contains no fewer than four keepers.  

Possible XI: Karunaratne, Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Dananjaya, Chandimal, Matthews, Kamindu Mendis, K Rajitha, A Fernando, V Fernando, Jayasuriya.   

Pitch and conditions  

England have an excellent record at Old Trafford.  

You'd need to go back to Pakistan in 2001 for the last time they lost here. The next 17 Tests produced 14 England wins and three draws, the latter curiously all against Australia.   

This isn't the easiest ground to work out in terms of runs.  

In 2022 a decent South African side were twice bowled out for less than 200 runs while England only needed to bat once, posting 415.  

Back in 2020 England won a tight one against Pakistan (who scored 326 and 129) only for England to chase 277 courtesy of some lower-middle order heroics from Jos Buttler (remember him?) and man of the match Chris Woakes, who hit an unbeaten 84.  

In that drawn Ashes match last year, Australia scored a decent 317 first up only for England to post a monster 592, before running out of time to bowl Australia out in the second innings.  

The forecast is surprisingly good on Wednesday with very little chance of rain but Thursday should see a couple of interruptions, Friday and Saturday looks somewhat decent with a low chance of rain, but it may well return on Sunday; though many will feel there will be no play at all on Sunday as England may well have wrapped up the game by then.  

England vs Sri Lanka Odds

England are 1/4, no surprise there. They've won seven of their last eight (home and away) against Sri Lanka, the odd one out being a draw in 2016 at Lord's.  

The draw is 9/2 and the tourists are 8/1 to cause what would be one of the biggest upsets in this format for a few years.  

It's hard to see an angle on this market. If England bat first, the aggressive duo of Duckett and Lawrence could score quickly against an attack looking to find its feet in these conditions, while if England bowl first, they could swing the ball and generate extra bounce and have the tourists three or four down by lunch. Either way, there's something of a chance that the 1/4 may be the biggest price you see on the hosts all match.  

Then again, we thought that about the West Indies series and on all three occasions the England price drifted, the problem being 'when' that will happen and to 'what' extent. So, the advice is simple: if you can get 1/2 on England at any stage, take it.    

Sri Lanka Top Bowler 

I think we can discount Angelo Matthews here (12/1) and spinners Dananjaya (6/1) and Jayasuriya (23/10), who are all unlikely to bowl much in general, with the latter two probably not finding much turn in the first innings even if they do get through a few overs.  

Assuming our prediction of their XI is correct, it's then a choice between the two Fernandos and Rajitha.  

From a small sample (Sri Lanka haven't played much Test cricket over the past two years) Asitha (Fernando) has 3 wins from 11 and is the type of swing bowler who may be best suited to these conditions. So the 16/5 looks pretty decent given he'll at least give you a good run for your money in terms of sharing the new ball and getting plenty of overs.  

England Top Batsman  

It's hard to see how or why Ollie Pope (4/1), comfortable at three and as good as anyone on his day, is the same price as Dan Lawrence, who has played just 11 Tests and is batting in a new position for him as an opener.  

Of course, whether he can beat all of Joe Root (11/4), Harry Brook and Ben Duckett (both 18/5) is another story.  

But the stats certainly don't lie about Root: despite being a run machine, he has won this heat (first innings top bat) just twice in his last 22 attempts. Perhaps he's been a bit unlucky. In the First Test against the Windies in the first innings he scored 68 but Crawley scored 76, and in the Third Test he got to 87 only for Jamie Smith to smash 95.  When in the Second Test he scored 122 that was in the second innings so that doesn't count. You get the picture.  

Either way, Pope doesn't seem like a man to be burdened with the responsibility of captaincy and the 4/1 looks too big.  

Having said all that, I can't resist a saver on Jamie Smith at 12/1. He looks the real deal as a sort of pretender to be the 'next Adam Gilchrist' with fearless batting and plenty of big hits. I wouldn't discount him punishing a tired Sri Lankan bowling attack and batting at six rather than seven is a significant plus.    

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...