England vs South Africa Prediction: Bet on the Run Out in 1st IT20

Jamie Pacheco previews the 1st T20I between England and South Africa at Cardiff, start time 18:30, live on Sky Sports Main Event, as England look to bite back after that ODI Series loss.   

Two England batsmen stand out on price while there are good reasons to think we'll witness at least a run out in the match. Jamie takes us through his England vs South Africa Prediction for the 1st IT20...

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

England 

It almost doesn't seem possible that virtually the same XI who featured in the first two ODIs were the same lot who put on a near-perfect performance. That included centuries from Jacon Bethell, again promoted to four, and Joe Root, while Jofra Archer put in a spell of brilliant fast bowling that was one of the best we've seen in a while from him, or anyone else for that matter, putting the game to bed within three or four overs of the chase.  I'm glad I wasn't in charge of picking the Player of the Match award in that one. Archer got it in the end for his 4/18 off nine overs.   

Bad news for the column because we were on the Proteas, giving back almost all our profits from backing SA in the previous match. But that's betting. 

Ben Duckett at least got some runs on Sunday but his 'reward' for that is to be left out of the T20I series. Frankly, he shouldn't have been playing in this Series at all, so at least they recognised the poor bloke needed a rest at some stage. Jamie Smith has also been rested.  

The rest of the squad is largely the same with Joe Root, who hasn't played a T20I for England since 2019, continuing to be overlooked in this format. Sam Currann, who's had an excellent summer at domestic level in white-ball cricket got a late call-up as a replacement for Duckett.  

Jos Buttler seems to prefer bating at three these days in the shortest format so Tom Banton, Phil Salt and Will Jacks will be competing for those two opener slots.  

South Africa  

The third ODI will be remembered as a bit of an embarrassment to the proud Proteas but then again, they'd done all the hard work already and had won the Series before Sunday's hammering.  

There were few positives to take from the match and one big negative: Temba Bavuma suffered a calf injury that stopped him from batting in the chase but then again, he wasn't in the T20I squad anyway.  

Donovan Ferreira, who had a good season with the Hundred-winning Oval Invincibles has been included, as has veteran David Miler and all-rounder Marco Jansen, rested for the ODI leg. Kagiso Rabada didn't feature at all in the Series gone by but might be 'risked' in the shorter format. Lhuan de Pretorius might get a game, having been overlooked in the ODIs.  

Pitch and conditions 

We're at Cardiff for the opener. There have been 11 T20Is played here over the years, 10 of them completed matches. Of those 10- all of which England were involved in- England won nine, so enjoy playing here in this format. The one defeat was to South Africa though, who posted 207 and defended it with ease in 2022.  

The tendency for high-scoring matches here is further backed up by the fact that Australia posted 193 here in Cardiff, which was chased down by England last year.   

Match Winner odds 

England go in as favourites for the fourth consecutive white-ball match between these two teams, this time at 4/6, implied probability of 60%. South Africa are 6/5, or 45.5% if you prefer.  

If you want reasons to back outsiders South Africa, here are three of them: they're 13-12 up on the head-to-head, have won each of the last three and just beat England 2-1 in the ODIs. But we'll leave this market alone.  

*For all the latest and live England vs South Africa Cricket Odds then head over to betfred.com 

England Top Batsman   

As far as the three possible openers go, Banton is 11/2, Salt 7/2 and Jacks 10/1.  Normally we'd go with the bigger price if unsure but England seem to see Jacks as an all-rounder-come-finisher these days so I have a suspicion Jacks will keep his place at seven with Banton asked to keep Salt company at the top of the order. If Banton opens, and I can't see that he'll bat anywhere else, the Somerset man is a cracking bet at 11/2. If he doesn't play at all, you just get your money back.  

Banton is 11/2, Salt 7/2 and Jacks 10/1.  Normally we'd go with the bigger price if unsure but England seem to see Jacks as an all-rounder-come-finisher these days so I have a suspicion Jacks will keep his place at seven with Banton asked to keep Smith company at the top of the order. If he opens, and I can't see that he'll bat anywhere else, Banton is a cracking bet at 11/2. If he doesn't play at all, with Salt preferred, you just get your money back.  

But at 10/1, I have to include Sam Curran as well. He's been batting at four all summer for the Invincibles in the Hundred  and Surrey in the Blast so England may well feel that if they're going to play him, they need to allow him to come in at  position he's familiar with and a position where he impressed, to the extent that he was a last minute re-call to the side. Brook didn't seem to mind dropping down a place in the ODIs to accommodate Bethell, so the same might happen here.  

Splitting stakes between two players at 11/2 and 10/1 who could both bat in the Top 5 and have plenty of ability, looks a sound strategy.  

Total Match Runouts  

A combination of aggressive/reckless running, poor communication among batting partners, sharp fielding and desperation is a good recipe for runouts in a cricket match and a combination of those'-particularly the inexistent communication and the overly-ambitious running – helped muster a runout in each of three ODIs just gone. Tristan Stubbs was sold down the river for one of them while England skipper Harry Brook was on the receiving end of not one, but two runouts!  

You also almost always get a chance of a runout in the final ball of the innings- particularly the first innings- where if it doesn't go for a boundary, batsmen are always looking for a two, whether it's there or not. So that scenario always keeps you interested.  

And yes, T20Is are a shorter format than ODIs but they're also more prone to batsmen taking even bigger risks with their running between the wickets, as every run counts.  

8/11 is a perfectly decent price on us getting another here.