England vs India Predictions: Pope and Woakes to shine in the Headingley sun

It’s the much-awaited First Test between England and a new-look India at Headingley, start time 11:00 on Friday with live coverage on Sky Sports Cricket and Sky Sports Main Event.    

Jamie Pacheco has picked a veteran with an outstanding record in English conditions to be England top bowler and a somewhat out of form class act at a big price as his two selections for this match. You can check out his England vs India Predictions below...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

England 

This is the start of a new two-year cycle of the Word Test Championship and having hosted the final on all of the first three occasions, Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes will be pretty keen on making sure they're actually participants next time in the final rather than just interested observers; the final is meant to be at Lords' again in June 2027.  

One man who can't be blamed for England's lack of success in this competition is Joe Root. Since it began in 2019, no-one has scored more runs, more centuries or more runs in a single edition of it than the former skipper.  

One thing that's notable is that the likes of Ollie Pope and Zak Crawley are being given plenty of time and faith to get their games right after lengthy lean spells.  

The fact those have been picked and the availability of all the other senior batters gave the selectors a (good) headache because someone had to miss out and, in the end, it was Jacob Bethell, with Pope getting the nod over him to bat at three. 

Chris Woakes slots back into the team at eight, the impressive Brydon Carse will bat nine and are joined by Josh Tongue. Spinner Shoaib Bashar, a surprise man of the match winner in that one off Test against Zimbabwe, completes the side.  

Announced XI:  Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Woakes, Carse, Tongue, Bashir. 

India  

A shock 3-0 Series defeat at home to New Zealand went a long way to denying them a place in the WTC final, swiftly followed by an away defeat in Australia, which was more understandable.  

Ravi Ashwin bizarrely retired from international cricket mid-series in Australia and Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma swiftly followed, with the brilliant Mohammed Shami missing out due to fitness concerns.  Ashwin, often left out in England in favour of Ravindra Jadeja is less of a loss while Kohli and Sharma, despite being past their best in this format, will leave huge gaps to fill.  

Vice-captain Rishabh Pant has confirmed that skipper Shubman Gill will bat at four and only time will tell if that's a good move. All-rounder Nitish Kumar Reddy, who batted beautifully in Australia but didn't bowl so well and IPL star B Sai Sudharsan are likely to fight it out for the number six position, with the experienced Karun Nair almost certain to bat at three. 

India will be praying they can keep star bowler Jasprit Bumrah fit.   

Possible XI:  KL Rahul, Jaiswal, Nair, Gill, Pant, Reddy/Sudharasan, Jadeja, Thakur, Siraj, Rana, Bumrah.   

Weather Forecast:

We're at Headingley for the first one and the forecast is remarkably good, which isn't always something we can say about the Leeds ground.   

When the sun is out here and the pitch is dry, which is likely to be the case, the runs should flow. There is a small chance of showers interrupting play on Saturday but temperatures in the mid to late 20s are expected for at least the opening three days.

Pitch:

The first session may well prove to be the trickiest for batting if history repeats itself, before batting gets easier as the game progresses. That added to the fact that six of the last seven have been won here by the side bowling first should force the captain's hand into wanting to field first.  

England generally prefer to have a fourth innings total on the board to chase anyway, so if it's Stokes winning the toss, expect him to bowl.  

England vs India First Test Odds

England are 3/5, implied probability of 62.5% with India 13/8 (38.1%) and the draw a big-looking 8/1.  

The first problem with the latter is that draws are a rarity in the Bazball era because of the way England play. The second is we're highly unlikely to lose overs to weather. Yet another is that draws are scarce in Leeds. Enough reasons to dismiss the draw, then.  

England's main problem is their bowling. Woakes should enjoy himself here and we like Carse, but this might not be the sort of wicket for him, whereas Tongue is unproven at this level with just three tests to his name. Bashir could be bang in the game on days four and five on a dry surface, but he's mostly played overseas, so will have plenty to work out here in terms of taking Test wickets in English conditions.  

You could argue India's bowling attack is stronger but as ever, preparation hasn't been ideal in alien conditions and those big-name players who have retired leave some big gaps that might not be satisfactorily filled at the first time of asking.  

An argument could be made that if both sides have a few issues to deal with and that we can dismiss the draw, that India are the bet as the considerably bigger price. But I'll leave this one alone for the first game.   

England Top Bowler  

I like Chris Woakes. He's right up there with one of the least flashy, most down-to-earth cricketers in the international game. Year after year he performs for England when fit in home Tests, so often gets ignored for overseas tours and then comes back and does it all again on home soil the next year.  

But the quiet man of English cricket can be a deadly assassin at home with numbers that are every bit as good as those of Stuart Broad and James Anderson throughout their careers and he would have come quite close to matching their wicket tallies if he'd played in all those away Tests that they did.  

But maybe that's missing the point. Similar to players like Rangana Herath of Sri Lanka, maybe he was born to dominate in home conditions at the price of not being able to replicate that form away.  

Either way, he has a remarkable 41%-win rate as England top bowler in first innings over the last two years. Those numbers include both Broad and Anderson playing in some of those matches so without those two, he really doesn't have much to beat in conditions he knows as well as anyone here. The absence of Gus Atkinson from the side helps our cause too because he can be a prolific wicket-taker on his day. Woakes at 2/1 looks a good bet.  

England Top Batsman  

If Woakes is a pick on superb stats, then the second selection for the match is one based primarily on price but also, a bit of gut feel.  

If Pope had been left out at the expense of Bethell who has another string to his bow in that he also bowls, the Surrey man can't have had too many reasons for complaints after a poor few months.  Not that keeping wicket and batting down the order in Pakistan necessarily helped his cause.  

He was probably incredibly relieved to have kept his spot against Zimbabwe and boy did he make the most of his chance, his 171 at better than a run-a-ball trumping centuries from Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett.    

Since then, he's only played four matches - all T20s with a 53 in the last one against Kent – but he's hardly the sort of player who needs lots of time at the crease or long net sessions to find form.  

All the attention will be on Joe Root, a predictable 3/1 favourite but as we've pointed out before, his top bat numbers are much better when batting in the second innings. Cases could be made for the incredibly consistent Ben Duckett (4/1) and as a value bet, Jamie Smith at 9/1 lower down the order, who can score as quickly as anyone in this side.  

But 13/2 for a player of Pope's class batting at three, is just too good to turn down.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

• Points Staked: 49.5 

• Points Returned: 41.63 

• Current P/L: -7.87 

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...