England vs India Predictions: Back India to win Fifth Test at the Oval at 11/8

It's been an excellent Series so far and we now head to The Oval for its climax with the Series 2-1 in favour of England and all still to play for.  

Jamie Pacheco talks us through the team news, pitch, conditions along with the latest betting odds. Our cricket tipster also gives us his two tips for the match as he takes us through his England vs India Predictions for the fifth and final Test match of what has been a rather enthralling series...   

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

England 

Apparently, Ben Stokes hates draws in Test matches.  

The Fourth Test was a match he probably thought England should have won and the short prices they traded at are proof that he was probably right.  

But flat, lifeless pitches are part of the game, England weren't great with the ball in the second innings and plenty of credit must be given to all the Indian batsmen who dug deep and played for survival to ensure it' still all to play for in the final Test, rather than it being a dead rubber.  

Stokes' visible frustration at the fact India decided to carry on batting to allow Ravindra Jadeja and Washington Sundar to get to their well-deserved centuries was not one of his greatest moments as England skipper and he'll need to learn he can't always have it all his own way. As a Cricinfo contributor put it: cricket must be played by the rules, not Stokes' moral code.  

It's a shame because Stokes had a brilliant game for a second match in a row, scoring 140 with the bat and taking five wickets in the first innings and one in the second, to get his second consecutive man-of-the-match award. Liam Dawson missed a good opportunity to take wickets on a fifth day pitch and by the end of it, England's bowlers looked pretty tired and devoid of ideas.   

Editor's Note: The following was added after publication following the announcement of the team.

Plenty of changes for this one. Dawson paid the price for a quiet game last week and has been replaced by Josh Tongue, meaning England will go into the match without a frontline spinner. Jofra Archer, whose workload is being carefully managed and Brydon Carse are also left out with Gus Atkinson and Jamie Overton coming in for them. Chris Woakes keeps his place, meaning he will have played all Five Tests.

But the biggest absence of all is Stokes himself, who has a shoulder problem that should keep him out of the game for about six weeks. Given he was unlikely to bowl in this one anyway and it's not as big a loss as it could have been though as we know, he did win back to back MOM awards so it's always going to be a big blow to be without him.

Jacob Bethell replaces him at six with Ollie Pope taking over the captaincy.

England XI:  Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Bethell, Smith, Woakes, Atkinson, Overton, Tongue 

India  

We've already praised India's resilience with the bat on the final two days and it was a reminder that despite all their players on show turning up to the IPL every year, they still value the challenge and grit of Test match cricket, which is great to see.  

Skipper Shubman Gill is proving to be a more resilient and feisty character than many may have thought. He's been up for the fight with the bat and in the field and has shown he's not going to be bullied by Stokes' alpha male persona and attitude to the game, and that Gill and India are going to do things their own way.  

The bad news is that they'll have to make do without Rishabh Pant, who heroically came out to bat with a broken toe but will need a few weeks to recover from that blow. 

DC Jurel will take the gloves off him, but it will be interesting to see where he bats; there's a good chance Jadeja may come in ahead of him.  

Anshul Kamboj had a quiet game so may be replaced by Arshdeep Singh if he's fit, or spinner Kuldeep Yadav, who is yet to feature in the Series.  

Possible XI:  KL Rahul, Jaiswal, Sudharsan, Gill, Jadeja, Durel, Sundar, Thakur, Yadav/Singh, Siraj, Bumrah.   

Pitch and conditions 

England will be kicking themselves about not winning at Old Trafford, a ground where they have an excellent record.  

Especially because their record at The Oval is nowhere near as good. In their last 9 matches here, they've won five and lost four, going down to Australia (twice), Pakistan and Sri Lanka last year, a match where they were accused of complacency with the Series already won.  

First innings scores have been all over the place at The Oval. South Africa were bowled out here for just 118 in 2022 against England but Australia managed a big 469 first up in the WTC final against India in 2023.  

Weather Forecast:

Showers are predicted for days one, two and four but then again, the forecast wasn't great for Manchester last week, yet interruptions were minimal. It will be interesting to see if Stokes sticks to his guns and caries on being aggressive or takes a more pragmatic approach knowing there's rain around and does what he needs to in order to secure the Series win.  

England vs India Fifth Test Odds

England are 11/10, implied probability 47.6%, with India 11/5 (31%) and the draw 2/1, 33%.  

If we thought Stokes would take the pragmatic approach just described above, the draw would be of interest at 2/1 given we suspect there will be quite a few overs lost to rain. But we can't be sure and poor weather or otherwise, we need to go back to 2013 for the last time there was a draw here in south London.  

It would also be a big help to have an insight into Gill's mindset. Will he try to win the match at all costs to level the Series?  Or would he settle for another draw and see a 2-1 loss as a far better result than 3-1 in his first series as skipper on a tough tour? Sadly, we don't know.  

So, here's what we're going to do. If the weather gets the better of things and we can't get a result or if Stokes surprisingly goes on the back foot and is happy to avoid defeat, there's no harm done. That's because we like India on the Match Winner 2-way market at 11/8, meaning that an India win sees us getting paid out at those odds, a draw sees us get our money back and only an England win sees us lose our stake.  

The loss of Pant is of course a big blow to India but the likes of Gill, KL Rahul and Jadeja can hopefully be counted on for runs and with England's mediocre recent record at this ground. 

ground. The absence of Bumrah, in this case one that India have control over, does of course weaken them but they're obviously looking at the bigger picture here and as we know, England are without two of their best players in Stokes and Archer too so you could say the absences on both sides cancel each other out, making that 11/8 a decent price.

England Top Batsman

It says a thing or two about how India shouldn't be 2-1 down given all of the Top 4 batsmen in the series - Gill, Rahul, Pant and Jadeja - are Indian. Somewhat surprisingly, Jamie Smith is top of the pile for the England batsmen with 424, followed by Joe Root (403) and Ben Duckett (365), so really not much to choose between them.   

Preference goes to Duckett who at 9/2 is a considerably bigger price than Root's 10/3. But that isn't the only reason: Root has played well in the first innings in this Series but that sort of goes against the grain because his numbers are normally more impressive in the second innings of the match.  

Duckett missed out on a top bat win last time out when his 94 was pipped by centuries from both Stokes and Root but it shows he's in form. He also scored 86 here last summer against Sri Lanka only for Ollie Pope to get 154 so you'd think sooner or later he'll win, rather than being another near-miss. You could say he's due and that's a good price to find out whether he is, or not.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:

• Points Staked: 59 
• Points Returned: 49.13 
• Current P/L: -9.87  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...