England v Australia Prediction: Nugget Duckett can help hosts go 1-0 up

England host Australia at Trent Bridge on Thursday for the 1st ODI with a start time of 11:00, a match broadcast live on Sky Sports Cricket.     

Jamie Pacheco showed another healthy profit in the recent T20I Series and has two 100/30 selections going here, plus a punt on England at odds-against as part of his England vs Australia Predictions in his full match preview here on Betfred Insights...

England  

England welcome back Harry Brook (who will be captain in the absence of Jos Buttler), Ben Duckett and Jamie Smith, none of whom were involved in the T20I Series. Smith was out first ball for Surrey on Finals Day at the weekend. There’s no Joe Root.  

There are three keepers in the squad - Jordan Cox, Phil Salt and Smith - and the smart money is on two being picked and one playing as a specialist batsman: maybe Smith, with Salt keeping wicket and Cox having to wait for his chance.  

Liam Livingstone was superb with both bat and ball in the T20I Series and should play here, adding good balance. Jacob Bethell is one to keep an eye on while Jofra Archer’s workload will have to be managed carefully but he may well feature first up.  

Possible XI:  Salt, Duckett, Jacks, Brook, Smith, Livingstone, Bethell, Stone, Rashid, Archer, Carse/Stone/Turner.  

Australia  

Australia are bringing back some big guns of their own. And they don’t come much bigger than Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell and Marnus Labuschagne. Add stand-in skipper Mitch Marsh and Travis Head to the equation and that’s pretty much as strong a batting line-up as you’ll see in this format.  

The problem is their fast bowling where they’re dropping like flies. Nathan Ellis, Riley Meredith and Xavier Bartlett are all out injured, so Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc are likely to play at least two games each. The excellent Sean Abbott may well play all three.  

Alex Carey and Josh Inglis will be battling it out for the keeper’s spot.    

Possible XI: Head, Carey/Inglis, Marsh, Smith, Labuschagne, Maxwell, Green, Abbott, Starc, Hazlewood/Dwarshuis, Zampa.  

Pitch and conditions  

England many have thought twice about hosting the first match at Trent Bridge given their patchy recent record here.  

In the last 10, they’ve won four and lost four, with two no results. In the last match here against Ireland last year they put on 334 with Ireland putting in a good effort in the chase, getting to 286.  

Australia went even bigger in 2019 (during the World Cup) scoring 381 mostly down to the now-(internationally) retired David Warner’s 166, against Bangladesh. Also during the World Cup, Australia got to 288 against the West Indies mostly thanks to a surprise 92 not out from Nathan Coulter-Nile (remember him?).  

Either way, 300 first up is very much on the cards and both sides will probably want first use of the pitch.  

England vs Australia 1st ODI Odds

England are 7/5. That’s quite an eye-catching price because you don’t often see them at odds-against in an ODI at home. The absence of Jos Buttler is a big part of that but then again, he hasn’t quite been himself these last couple of years in the format anyway. Joe Root’s form, experience and calm head will be sorely missed, too.  

There are question marks over England’s bowling and that might explain why the odds are the way they are. But that’s a perfectly decent batting line-up even without Buttler and Root, with the likes of Smith and Bethell desperate to prove themselves in this format, while Duckett, Salt, Livingstone and Brook are all very capable already.  

There’s also the danger that as good as that Aussie batting line-up is, three of them (Maxwell, Smith and Labuschagne) won’t have played much cricket recently and certainly not in English conditions, so could be a bit rusty.     

We make it almost a choice affair therefore, so England are the value at 7/5. 

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