England v Australia Prediction: Aussie part-time bowlers in the mix at big prices in 4th ODI

It's the fourth match of the Series as England host Australia at Lord's on Friday with the tourists currently 2-1 up. It's a start time of 12:30 for this one again, a match broadcast live on Sky Sports Cricket.     

Jamie Pacheco thinks Cameron Green is too big for Top Aussie bat at 6/1 while Glenn Maxwell at 8/1 and Aaron Hardie at 15/2 may prove to be value bets in their own right for top bowler honours as he takes us through his England vs Australia Predictions for Friday's match...

3rd ODI Recap  

A good win for England, mostly thanks to an excellent unbeaten 110 from Harry Brook, his first in the format. This is a player who had come under quite a lot of scrutiny these last few weeks both as batsman and stand-in captain, mostly for his comments regarding how he didn’t care how batsmen were getting out as long as they were being positive in the first place, after the First ODI. So he’ll have felt he proved a few doubters wrong at Durham.  

In the end, England won via DLS but they were miles ahead when the rain eventually came so take nothing away from them just because (on paper), it was a DLS win.  

Mitch Marsh made a good start for us before edging a good one from Brydon Carse to the keeper.  

So it was left to the other Mitch (Starc), our other bet, to come good. On the one hand we can feel a little unlucky that he didn’t win outright after taking the first two England wickets and with the only other two to fall both coming off the same bowler, Cameron Green. On the other hand, Green went for less runs than Starc did and other bookies would have settled that as a Green win, rather than a dead-heat.  

So we got paid out at half the 11/4 / 3.75 odds on Starc (profit of 1.375 points) minus the 1 pts lost on Marsh meant a profit of 0.375 points on the day. We’re ever so slightly in the red after three games so let’s try to improve on that.  

England  

The fact that England pulled one back and are still alive in the Series may mean the unfortunate Jordan Cox may have to carry on waiting for his chance. Or will he? Phil Salt has been on a poor run with scores of 17, 12 and 0 this Series so they might consider promoting Will Jacks to open and bring Cox in at three with Salt sitting it out. Or just open with Cox.  

Bringing him in would also be a chance to see what Cox could do with the gloves, allowing the ever-improving Jamie Smith to just focus on his batting. Let’s see.  

Jofra Archer took two wickets but was a bit expensive on Tuesday. But it’s likely the plan was always to rest him for this one and bring him back for game five.  That could mean a return for Olly Stone, or a first match of the Series for either John Turner or Saqib Mahmood.   

Possible XI:  Salt/Cox, Duckett, Jacks, Brook, Smith, Livingstone, Bethell, Potts Carse, Rashid, Stone/Mahmood/Turner.   

Australia  

Travis Head was feeling ‘sore’ ahead of Tuesday’s match but should be fine for this one. That could mean Matt Short finally gets a break after playing every match against England so far across two formats and Mitch Marsh opening alongside Head, if that’s the case.  

Adam Zampa should also come back with any one of Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc or Sean Abbott missing out. Aaron Hardie has proved to be a big asset with both bat and ball and there are no fitness concerns over him, so is likely to keep his place.  

Possible XI: Head, Marsh, Smith, Green, Labuschagne, Carey, Maxwell, Hardie, Abbott/Starc, Hazlewood, Zampa.  

Pitch and conditions  

England have played at Lords’ three times since 2021 and won the lot, beating Pakistan, India and New Zealand.  

During the 2019 World Cup, Australia played here twice, beating England after posting 285 and then New Zealand after a rescue act from Alex Carey, who scored 71 off 72. Sound familiar?  

This was of course also the venue for that tie between England and New Zealand in the 2019 final.  

In their last three here England posted 247 which they defended easily against Pakistan, 246 against India (won by 100 runs) and 311/9 (curiously also beating New Zealand by exactly 100 runs).  

The latter score was considerably above par for this ground and anything above 270 should be competitive first up.  

There’s more rain forecast for Friday (50 to 70% chance for most of the match) so it’s very possible we’ll get a repeat of Tuesday’s game: either shortened to begin with or DRS-affected, but with a completed match one way or another.  

England vs Australia 4th ODI Odds

England have been cut to 5/4 from 11/8. Australia are 8/13.    

That’s a significant move but justified after how the hosts went about the chase at Durham.  

It’s a somewhat tempting price on England and in a strange way, this Series just has that feel about it that it deserves a decider at Bristol on Sunday.   

But it should be remembered that Australia were without two key players in Head and Zampa on Tuesday and that their returns, alongside the likely absence of Archer for England, could mean Australia come into the game stronger.  

If we’re indecisive, we don’t play.  

*You can check out all of our markets and Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

Australia Top Batsman

I’m not entirely sure why Australia think Cameron Green is a better option at four than say Marnus Labuschagne or even Carey. But they do. Maybe it’s a case of wanting to split Smith and Labuschagne for fear of those two not scoring quickly enough at times, while they prefer Carey as a finisher batting with the tail.   

So, whether his batting position is justified or not, he’s likely to carry on at four and that makes the 6/1 on him being Top Aussie bat look big.    

He’s scored 32 and 42 so far this Series so is in some sort of form and an average of 39 in the format after 28 games is proof that he’s well-suited to it. There’s even a possibility that he’ll open (which he’s done before) if Short is given a rest and Marsh doesn’t fancy the job, so that would theoretically improve his chances.  

Head (13/5) is always a threat and has been their best batsman so far across both Series but he’s less than half the price of Green. Carey has to be respected as well after back-to-back wins on this market and it’s surprising he’s still 17/2. But sooner or later the top order will fire and he won’t be at the crease long enough to win. Green it is.