India vs West Indies Prediction: 9/2 Axar right at home in Ahmedabad

Jamie Pacheco previews the India v West Indies First Test played at Ahmedabad on Thursday, with a start time of 05:00 and live on TNT Sports 3.

Jamie has just one bet for the match but it’s one he really likes with Axar Patel boasting superb numbers at this ground and available at 9/2 to be their first innings top bowler, so let’s find out his reasoning behind those as we go through his India vs West Indies Predictions...

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

India

Just a few days ago India were in action at the Asia Cup in the UAE, beating rivals Pakistan in the final in a match that had a bit of everything but most importantly, one that India ended up winning, a reminder that they’re very much top dogs in ICC events.

Or are they? Well, it depends on the format. India have so far played and lost two World Test Championship finals, so will be desperate to make amends and remind everyone it’s not just in white-ball cricket that they have the upper hand.

This two-Test Series counts towards the next cycle of the WTC, so they’ll be keen to win it 2-0. In fact, anything other than that scoreline will be seen as a major disappointment.

A reminder there’s no Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma or Ravi Ashwin in Test cricket anymore. There’s no Rishab Pant either, as he continues to reiver from an injury sustained in that England series.

In his absence, Dhruv Jurel will probably keep wicket. Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel should have important roles to play with both bat and ball.

Jasprit Bumrah will probably be ‘rested’ for the First Test.  I know he’s their premium fast bowler and has had plenty of back injuries over the years, but he seems to get as much time off as he has time ‘on’ and actually playing. But yes, there’s no particularly good reason why he should play here.

West Indies

West Indies have hit rock bottom in Test cricket. Then again, we’ve said that many a time over the past few years only for them to sink even lower.

The latest embarrassment was a 3-0 defeat at home to Australia. They’re not the first team to suffer that sort of fate but it was the manner of it that was so worrying. That included being bowled out for just 27 in the second innings of the Third Test in a scorecard that included seven ducks, of which four were golden ducks. Justin Greaves top-scored with 11.

Since then, Kraig Brathwaite, the 100-Test man, has been dropped. It’s fair enough if they feel he’s had his time, and they want to find the next generation of openers. But you’d think that someone like Jason Holder would have been just the sort of player whose wise head and experience would be good for a group of young players. Instead, he’s playing a T20 Series against Nepal.

Roston Chase leads the side but there’s no Joseph of either variety, with both Alzarri and Shamar (Joseph) out with injuries.

Pitch and conditions. 

We're at Ahmedabad for this one. There have been three matches played here in the last four years, with India beating England twice and drawing with Australia a couple of years ago.

The first of those two wins over England was a low-scoring affair in which Axar Patel took 11 wickets in the match. Just two weeks later India dismissed Egland for just 205 and 135, in the process India needing to bat just once after scoring 365 mostly thanks to a brilliant century from Pant. Axar took nine wickets in that game, too.

Then two years ago Australia posted 480, India responded with 571 and the game inevitably petered out into a draw.

So not the easiest wicket to predict but we know spin is the way to go here with the ball.

Match Winner odds 

India are 1/8, which is implied probability of 88.9%. The West Indies are 11/1, which is 8.3%, and the draw is 6/1, or 14.3%.

There aren't many reasons to think it will be anything other than an India win. And a comfortable one at that. India in India is just about the toughest test in Test cricket and though a toss going your way here or there can level things out a bit, you still need the personnel to go out and make it count. And that's what New Zealand had when they beat India 3-0 here last year.

Not that we're expecting any other side to do that to India again anytime soon, but you can see how a side containing the likes of Tom Latham, Rachin Ravindra, Darryll Mitchell, Ajaz Patel, Matt Henry and co can fight fire with fire on their day in India conditions. It's hard to see many players from this West Indies side that fits that bill.

And we're obviously not going to be playing India at that price, so on we go.

*For all the latest and live India vs West Indies Odds then head over to betfred.com 

Top Indian Bowler

Axar Patel has an excellent record in Test match cricket in general with 55 wickets from 14 Tests, a small number of appearances for a player of his quality. But then again, it's not easy to get into a side that for the last 10 years or so has been able to call on fellow spinners Jadeja, Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav and Washington Sundar, among others.

But if there's one wicket he wishes he could carry around with him and bowl on every match, it's probably this one at Ahmedabad.

Against England here in 2021 he took 6/38 and 5/32 in the match, winning as top bowler both times. Then a couple of weeks later he took 4/47 and 5/48, winning in the first innings and tying with Ashwin in the second. He then had a considerably quieter Test against Australia in 2023 with just one wicket in the first innings as Ashwin took six, and one in the second, though that was enough to tie with Ashwin.

So that's three wins and two ties from six innings here, which is outstanding. I'll happily take the 9/2on offer and if 12/5 Bumrah doesn't play, as we suspect, that's even better.

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

• Points Staked: 107.5
• Points Returned: 96.25
• Current P/L: -11.75