Australia vs England Prediction: All Australia once again in Adelaide for 3rd Ashes Test

Jamie Pacheco previews the much-awaited Third Test between Australia and England, with the latter drinking in the last-chance saloon, a match which will be played at Adelaide from 23.30 on Tuesday, broadcast live on TNT Sports.  

Jamie has a strong Price Boosted 13/5 fancy that includes the Australian win and is splitting stakes between two big-priced Aussie batters for top bat honours. You can check out his Best Betting Tips right here on Betfred Insights in his Australia vs England Predictions piece...    

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

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Australia  

I don't think we need to go into any massive detail regarding what happened in the Second Test, so let's keep it simple: Australia were the better team.  

Of course, it helped that they had Mitchell Starc to count on with the pink ball, and who did much of the early damage, but then again, we suspected that all along, which is why we backed him at 9/4 for first innings top bowler honours.  

He took 6/75 and, for good measure, went on to top score with 77 just at a time when Australia were looking like not getting many more than what England managed.  

But herein lies one of the key differences between the two sides. It wasn't just Starc who put in the hard graft with the bat. 16 from Michael Neser, 21 from Scott Boland, even 13 from Brendan Doggett: they all add up.  

And that's without even mentioning the knocks from the established batsmen like Marnus Labuschagne (65), Steve Smith (61) and Alex Carey (63).  

Other than the fact that every last one of these Australian players will fight till the death, there's more bad news for England. Pat Cummins is likely to return to the side with one of Doggett or Boland, who have both been good, making way.  

Michael Neser had a pretty good game with six wickets and some runs so assuming Nathan Lyon comes back, and he should on a more spin-friendly wicket, Neser may well keep his place, meaning both of Boland and Doggett are left out.   

There's been talk of Usman Khawaja batting in the middle-order but I can't see that happening. The likeable left-hander may have played his last game for Australia.  

England  

Where do we start?  

The most remarkable thing for me is how little preparation and planning there seems to have been for a Series they've had four years to prepare for.  

There's little or no imagination or guile with the pace bowling: the only plan seems to be to bowl fast.  They're still not sure whether to stick with Ollie Pope, and even Jamie Smith's place is coming under scrutiny. Was the plan to play Shoaib Bashir at some stage, or have the goalposts moved, and they now prefer the extra batting they get with playing Will Jacks as a spinning all-rounder?  Why did they not arrive earlier and play some proper warm-up matches? We could go on.  

The Top seven will remain the same for this one, with the only change being Josh Tongue coming in for Gus Atkinson. Jofra Archer can consider himself pretty lucky it wasn't him making way.  

The sad thing if you're an England fan is that in a way, it probably won't matter much either way. The gulf in class, temperament, plans and performances is pretty big at the moment.  

Pitch and conditions

We're at the Adelaide Oval for this one. More bad news for England fans? Sure, why not?  

Australia have won 11 of their last 12 here, the odd one out being a defeat to India back in 2018, with the Australians failing to chase down a stiff total on the final day, falling 31 runs short.  

It was pretty brutal the last time England played here back in 2021, losing by 275 runs; Starc did some damage in that one, too, while Marnus Labuschagne was good for scores of 101 and 51.  

The weather should be extremely warm, which could well bring spin into play on days four and five (if it goes that far). 19 of the 83 matches here have been drawn over the years, which is quite a high proportion, but it's looking unlikely this lot will play in a way that the draw becomes a lively runner.  

Match Winner odds 

Australia are 2/5, implied probability of 71.4% with England 11/5 (31%) and the draw 10/1 (9.1%). That's a pretty poor price on England, who have made more mistakes than we can track of in the first two games, have problems just about everywhere you look and are up against an Aussie side welcoming back their captain and world-class bowler in Cummins. And they'll be at a ground where Australia have an excellent record. Sound like an 11/5 shot? No.  

If backing Australia feels like buying money, then maybe it's because they have no excuse for not winning this match, given all we've said. But I've never tipped a 2/5 shot here and I'm not going to start now.  

*For all the latest and live Australia vs England Third Ashes Test Odds then head over to betfred.com 

Price Boost - Australia To Win, Australia Hit Most Match Fours & England Hit Most Match Sixes @ 13/5  

The bet above would have won in both of the first two matches, albeit narrowly.  

The Australia win is probably the easy part of the bet but it follows that if Australia win this comfortably again (or even more comfortably this time) the other two should fall into place. After all, if Australia match by say 120-150 runs, then it follows they'll probably hit more fours and sixes.  

And for all bravado and hype about Bazball and the big-hitting that comes with it, Australia have just as many boundary hitters and six smashers as England do. The likes of Travis Head, Cameron Green and Alex Carey are hardly careful accumulators. Even the less obvious ones can whack it, with Starc good for 14 boundaries in that first innings knock.   

So the bigger the Australia win, the better for our bet's chances, but even if it's not such a big margin, there are ways it can come good.  

Top Australia Batsman  

There have been two somewhat unlikely winners of the Australia first innings top bat betting heat so far: Alex Carey with just 26 in the First Test and Starc with 77 in the Second. 

That suggests that despite everything, Australia have needed some lower-order rescue acts to get them in winning positions.  

It would be a bit much to expect Starc to come close again, but Carey certainly might. He almost won in the Second Test too, with his 63 not far off that 77 in the only time he batted. So he's in form.  

This is a man averaging 35 with 12 fifties and a couple of centuries, so it shouldn't come as any big surprise that he's made such important contributions. At 8/1 he's definitely worth a punt but we'll also have a small one on Cummins, who looks big at 25/1 for a player of his ability and should bat just below Carey, at eight.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

• Points Staked: 136 
• Points Returned: 130.18 
• Current P/L: -5.82 

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