Australia vs South Africa Prediction: Back Brevis to bash more runs

After Australia edged a hard fought T20 series 2-1, attention quickly turns to the longer white-ball format with the first of three ODIs on Tuesday, live on TNT Sports from 05:30. 

Dan Thomas takes a look at two much-changed squads and picks out his best bets as he brings us his Australia vs South Africa predictions for the early hours of Tuesday morning… 

Aussies in transition 

Australia's build-up to this series has been defined by the high-profile ODI retirements of Steve Smith and Glenn Maxwell after the Champions Trophy defeat earlier this year. Their absence signals the start of a new era, with a mixture of established stars and newcomers.  

Mitchell Marsh continues to take the captaincy reins, filling in for Pat Cummins, who is rested for this series. Marnus Labuschagne returns, and will be hoping to make a case for Ashes selection, while the likes of Travis Head and Josh Hazlewood provide further experience and firepower. 

The selectors have retained Mitchell Owen after his impressive T20 displays, though late fitness issues mean he'll be missing for this match, with Aaron Hardie and Xavier Bartlett in contention to feature. 

Proteas turn over a new leaf 

The Proteas have also seen a number of senior departures. The past months witnessed the retirement of Sarel Erwee, while Heinrich Klaasen ended his international white-ball stint, and Quinton de Kock's ODI exit continues to leave a void behind the stumps and in the top order.  

Temba Bavuma resumes the captaincy and is joined by Aiden Markram, both of whom anchor an otherwise youthful batting group. Dewald Brevis, a standout performer in the T20s, is set to earn his ODI debut and could be key if he matches his short-format exploits. 

The bowling, meanwhile, remains formidable, with Kagiso Rabada leading a unit featuring Lungi Ngidi, the returning Keshav Maharaj, and the emerging Nandre Burger.  

Pitch & conditions 

We are back at Cairns for this one, the venue for the third T20, where conditions were broadly good for batting, although there were some signs of the ball holding in the surface.  

When Australia played New Zealand here in an ODI series in 2022 there was help for the bowlers with the highest total across six innings being 267. It will be a humid and dry day, with temperatures expected to reach 27c. 

Key odds  

Despite a poor performance in the Champions Trophy, Australia's home form remains solid, with a 3-0 win over Sri Lanka and a 2-1 victory over Pakistan in their last ODI assignments on familiar turf.  

South Africa claimed a hard-fought 2-1 series win against West Indies earlier this year, but their most recent away trip, to India, ended in a 3-0 whitewash. In the seven ODIs played on Australian soil since 2016, the Proteas have managed just two wins and suffered a 2-1 series defeat in their previous visit.   

Given those form-lines, it's easy to see why the hosts have been chalked up as 2/5 favourites to win the opener, with South Africa at 15/8. While the T20 series was hard fought, the 50-over format tends to expose the weaker side.   

Head is rated the 10/3 to top score for the hosts, with opening partner Marsh and number 3 Green both at 4/1. For South Africa, Bavuma heads the market at 10/3 with the impressive Ryan Rickelton a 7/2 chance, and Brevis 9/2 to top score on debut. Hazelwood and Zampa (both 14/5) are expected to lead the way for the Aussie attack, with Rabada (13/5) the clear favourite for the visitors.  

*You can check out all the latest and live Australia vs South Africa Odds for the 1st ODI over on betfred.com

Best Bets

With no wriggle room in the match odds markets, we'll head to the player-specific markets for our selections for this one.  

Having unsuccessfully backed Brevis for runs in the first T20, we then avoided him for the next two - cue scores of 125 and 53! So, we'll rectify that by backing him to beat his runs line of 23.5 here at 5/6. And we'll top up by backing the classy Bavuma - who has scored five half-centuries in his last seven international innings - to score over 28.5 at 5/6. 

Dan Thomas 2025 Cricket P/L:

• Staked: 23pts 
• Returned: 13.63pts 
• P/L: -9.37pts 

Find more Cricket Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights