Australia v India Prediction: Reddy for a 9/1 winner in the 3rd Test?

Australia host India on Saturday morning live on TNT Sports 3 with a start time of 00:20 at Brisbane, with both sides looking to go 2-1 up after sharing the spoils across the first two games.   

After going 2/2 for winning bets in the Second Test at 11/5 and 4/1, Jamie Pacheco has two big-priced Indian batsmen going for him and thinks Travis Head can be in the runs again in his Australia vs India Third Test Predictions...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

2nd Test Recap  

Australia won the Second Test convincingly to draw the Series at 1-1. I was wondering if I'd made a little too much of the fact that this was a day-night Test played with the pink ball; but maybe not.

Both Mitchell Starc at 11/5 and Travis Head at 4/1 were picked for Australia top bowler and batsman respectively based on their record with the pink ball and both won! Quite convincingly, by the way. Starc took six wickets in the first innings and Head hit 140 when only one other Aussie player passed 50, so neither of those was really ever in any doubt.  

So, a perfect 2/2 in terms of picks and a superb profit of 6.2 points from the match is what we take into this one.  

Australia  

Perhaps more important than Head's century in the context of the Series was the first innings 64 by Marnus Labuschagne. He was badly out of form and that knock will have given him plenty of confidence. It also means the Aussie selectors don't have to make the tough call of axing a man who has been so important to the cause over these last four years or so. Not to mention they didn't exactly have a huge amount of choice when it came to who to replace Labuschagne with.   

Mitch Marsh is a different case. He scored eight the only time he batted in the game and bowled just four wicketless overs, so he really needs to get something happening for him. Yes, he still has some credit in the bank but he's pretty fortunate that Cameron Green is injured or else he'd be out of the team.  

All of which means that the only likely change is the return of Josh Hazlewood with Scott Boland giving away. Boland is one of the unluckier bowlers in Test cricket in that he rarely gets chances, always performs when he does and then gets dropped as soon as one of the others returns from injury. He took five wickets in the match.  

Possible XI:  McSweeney, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Marsh, Carey, Starc, Cummins, Lyon, Hazlewood. 

India  

We did say before the Second Test that India had only ever played one day-night match, and it certainly showed with bowlers not making use of the conditions the way the Australian bowlers did and batsmen struggling to deal with the swing.  

Skipper Rohit Sharma scored just 4 and 6 in his two knocks after returning from India to attend the birth of his child but despite that, will carry on at six despite not having batted there in years.  

Ravi Ashwin came into the side for Washington Sundar but had something of a quiet game by his standards. Maybe Ravindra Jadeja will become the third frontline spinner to be given a game this Series.  

But the one who has made an impression is Nitish Reddy. For all the spinning all-rounders they have - Ashwin, Sundar and Jadeja - they've been a bit light on seaming all-rounders since Hardik Pandya stopped playing Tests so he could be given an extended run in the side, at least when playing overseas. We'll talk about his batting in a bit.  

Possible XI: Rahul, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Pant, Sharma, Ashwin/Sundar/Jadeja, Reddy, Rana, Bumrah, Siraj.  

Pitch and conditions  

Australia have an outstanding record here at Brisbane with 62 Tests here producing 42 wins, 13 draws and just 10 defeats. There was also that rarity of Test cricket: a tie.  The Windies tied here back in 1960 with a certain Sir Garfield Sobers hitting 132 in the first innings.  

Between 2013 and 2019 Australia won seven in a row before losing to India (2021), then winning against South Africa and England, before a shock defeat to the Windies here earlier this year.  

This isn't necessarily a high-scoring ground so anything above 300 in the first innings will be seen as a very competitive total indeed.  

India vs Australia Third Test Odds

The hosts are 3/5, which is implied probability of 62.5%. It's 7/4 about India, implied probability of 36.4% and 7/1 the draw. Given there haven't been any of those in the last 11 and you can see why it's of little interest to us.  

Australia have an excellent record here as we know but the slight fly in the ointment is that India chased 330 in the fourth innings to beat them here back in 2021.  

That aside, you'll see far worse bets than that 3/5 this week. It's hard enough coming to Australia for a Test series and it's particularly tough here at Brisbane, but when you keep on making strange decisions it makes it even harder. Sundar instead of Ashwin and Jadeja in the First Test. Sharma at six?  

If that's not the sort of price for you, you can wait for India to make a decent start and try to get 2.0 on the hosts in live betting, if the opportunity arises.  

India First Innings Top Batsman   

And now to the curious case of Nitish Reddy. He made his debut in the First Test, top-scoring with 41, then scored 38 in the second innings of that match, as Kohli and Jaiswal scored centuries. Then, in the Second Test, he scored 42 in both innings(!), top-scoring for India in the pair of them.  

So, he's struck exactly 42 in three of his four Test innings to date and top-scored in all of those! I didn't make a note of all the prices he went off at, but they were probably around the 14/1 to 20/1 mark, at the very least.

So, on the one hand it seems a little bit of a case of shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted given he's just 9/1 this time round. On the other hand, this is a man with some obvious batting ability who has been prepared to have a go and play his shots before a 'Jaffa' from Starc or Cummins is too good for him. He certainly didn't get to those 42s by taking a book out of Labuschagne's book and batting time.  

But it also makes sense to cover the Ravi Ashwin base, at a huge 40/1. Left out of the First Test, he scored just 22 and 7 in the Second Test but let's remember this is a man with six Test centuries to his name, 14 fifties and with a very respectable average of 25, considering he's mostly seen as a frontline spinner.  

Given Reddy's impressive batting over the last couple of weeks, it will be interesting to see who of the two bats at seven and who comes in at eight. But either way, we have two lower middle-order players at big prices going for us, if there's another top-order India collapse in difficult conditions.  

First Innings Travis Head Total Runs Over/Under 30.5 Runs  

It may be a bit much to expect Travis Head to get back-to-back top bat wins after last week's success at 4/1 given there are plenty of extremely fine batsmen in this Australian side. He's 7/2 this time round, for the record.  

But he should be able to get to 31 runs in the first innings. In his three knocks so far this Series he scored 11, 89 and 110 so has been in good touch. His career average is 43, his average in Australia is 52 and against just India it's 47.75. His average for 2024 in Tests is 39.81. So, some serious numbers to suggest that he performs to his usual level on a ground he knows well, he should get to the 31-run mark at 5/6. 

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...