Australia v India Predictions: Boland and Bumrah are Boxing Day bowlers bets

Australia host India on Wednesday night live on TNT Sports 1 with a start time of 23:30 at the MCG, with both sides looking to go 2-1 up after sharing the spoils across the first three games, the last of which was a draw at Brisbane.    

Jamie Pacheco is showing a strong profit for the Series and has 6/5 and 11/4 selections to get stuck into ahead of this one as he previews the action and gives us his best Australia vs India Predictions for the Fourth Test...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

3rd Test Recap  

Rain robbed Australia of what should have been a relatively straightforward win given what they both scored when batting first but it didn't rob us of a small profit.  

A 1pt bet on Travis Head to pass 30.5 runs (he scored 152 for back-to-back top bat wins and two man-of-the-match awards in a row) cancelled out a 0.5 point bet on Nitish Reddy to be India top bat and still allowed for a bit of a profit given the third bet on Ravi Ashwin, also for top bat (more on him in a bit) was void, as he didn't play.  

So a small profit this time round to add to the big profit from the Second Test as we move to Melbourne.  

Australia  

Australia have axed Nathan McSweeney after just three Tests. True, he didn't get to 50 in six attempts, but he did look like he at least had the temperament for Test match cricket, so it's a bit of a surprise they didn't stick with him at least until the end of the Series.  

What it does show is that Australia are absolutely desperate to win this Series and will pick who they think will give them the best chance of doing that rather than worrying too much about the future.  

So, in comes 19-year-old Sam Konstas for his debut. He'll be joined by Scott Boland as a new player coming into the side (sort of, Boland did play the Second Test) which in his case, is at the expense of the injured Josh Hazlewood.  

As good as Hazlewood is, Boland never lets you down with his probing lines and lengths, so it's not necessarily the worst thing to have happened.  

The rest of the side remains unchanged. Mitch Marsh could do with a performance after struggling with both bat and ball so far.  

Possible XI:  Konstas, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Marsh, Carey, Starc, Cummins, Lyon, Boland. 

India  

Ashwin has called it a day. The timing of his international retirement is a bit odd given this Series is still very much up for grabs but then again, this is a man who has always marched to the beat of his own drum. Presumably he had the feeling he wasn't going to get a game in the remaining matches and at 38 years old, didn't have the patience to be carrying drinks anymore given he has 537 Test wickets and six centuries. But who knows?   

He was unlikely to play here anyway, especially after a fine 77 from Ravindra Jadeja in the only time he batted at Brisbane, though Jadeja did go wicketless.  

Akash Deep might get hooked with Reddy keeping his place due to his superior batting.  Harshit Rana could come in for him with Washington Sundar, the other spinner in the squad, also a viable alternative to gatecrash the XI.  

Rohit Sharma seems set on not upsetting the apple cart in terms of splitting the two openers, meaning he's likely to stay at six. It hasn't worked so far.  

Possible XI: Rahul, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Pant, Sharma, Jadeja, Reddy, Deep/Rana/Sundar, Bumrah, Siraj.  

Pitch and conditions  

Here are the last five first innings scores Tests here at the MCG: 318-189-185-195-467.  

Three scores under 200 suggests this isn't an easy track to bat on. It's a view backed up by this season's Sheffield Shield matches where in eight completed innings here, no team has passed 250 in any of them.  

So, bear in mind that batting first and being all out for 220 or so by no means game over for the team doing so. It could be a better score than it first looks.  

Australia vs India Fourth Test Odds

The hosts are 4/7, implied probability of 63.6%. India are 13/8 (38%) while the draw is 10/1. A word on the latter: we were perhaps a bit too quick to dismiss it last time round but then again, the weather forecast suggested we wouldn't get as much rain as we did. There may be some showers on Day 4 but other than that, the weather should be pretty good this time round.  

You'll see worse bets than Australia this week at Betfred. They have a good record here and their bowlers are more suited to these conditions, as you'd expect. India look a little (a lot) over-reliant on Jasprit Bumrah because no-one else has really got going so if he doesn't play to his usual standard or tires, it's hard to see where their wickets are going to come from.  

Sharma and Gill are just two of the batsmen struggling at the moment for them and it's not obvious where their runs are going to come from, either.  

Australia should really win but the price is short enough, at least pre-match.  

Australia First Innings Top Bowler 

You will have picked upon the fact that we're big Boland fans over here. His record suggests that's justified.  

He's only played 11 Tests despite being 35, a result of that untouchable trio of Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood almost always being fit and available for Test match duty. But Boland has made the most of the few chances he's had, with 40 wickets in those 11 games. His figures look even better when playing ion Australia, considering that in seven home Tests he's taken 33 wickets. He had a good game in the Second Test with 2/54 and 3/51 so he's in decent form and for good measure, he's on his home ground.  

At 11/4, he's also a considerably bigger price than Cummins (15/8) and Starc (2/1) while Lyon (7/2) is unlikely to get through too much work in the first innings here given the MCG doesn't generally take turn from early on. Boland rates a very solid bet.  

First Innings India Top Bowler  

It's not often you take note of a player being just 6/5 for top bowler honours and get excited about it.  But then again, Bumrah is no normal player.  

For starters, he's giving the Aussie boys a beating on their own patch. He has 21 wickets in this Series so far, which is seven more than next-best pair of Starc and Cummins and eight more than the next-best Indian bowler, Mohammed Siraj. 

In five of his six innings so far in this Series he's taken three or more wickets, normally more than good enough to win this betting heat.  And the only one where he didn't was because Australia only had a few runs to knock off to win the game.  

None of this should come as much of a surprise. He is after all the Number 1 ranked Test bowler in the world. Besides, considering plenty of other bookies are going odds-on about him winning here, the 6/5 is actually bigger than the market average.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...