Australia vs India Prediction: 8/1 Marsh can be Top Batsman

Australia host India on Friday morning (02:20) in Perth in the much-awaited First Test between two powerhouses of the world game. The match will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 1.

Jamie Pacheco thinks an India batting collapse could open the door to India’s premium all-rounders Ravindra Jadeja (16/1) and Ravi Ashwin (28/1) - while Mitch Marsh at 8/1 could be the one to follow for the Aussies.

Australia

Australia are top of the ICC Test World Championships rankings.

From the eight Tests that count towards the rankings, they’ve won eight, lost three and drawn one. Among those wins were three against Pakistan, two against New Zealand and one against the Windies, though they did also lose to them earlier this year, a real upset. The 2-2 drawn Ashes last year is also included in those results.

David Warner is retired from international cricket, while Cameron Green is injured. Green’s absence means a big gap has to be filled in the Top 6 in the batting, with the ball, and fielding at gully.

Nathan McSweeney won his ‘audition’ against other pretenders to the opening slot throne by getting plenty of Sheffield Shield runs so will come out to bar alongside Usman Khawaja. McSweeney, who will be playing at the WACCA in a red-ball match for the first time in his career on Friday, bowls a bit too.

Mitch Marsh, Travis Head and Marnus Labuschagne do as well so they’ll play four frontline bowlers, an all-rounder in Marsh (though we don’t know exactly how much he’ll bowl) and ask McSweeney, Head and Labuschagne to chip in with a few overs of their own if needed.

Australia’s Big Four – Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon – will all play but it’s likely that only Lyon and possibly skipper Cummins will play all five games, as they manage their workloads.

Possible XI: Khawaja, McSweeney, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Marsh, Carey, Starc, Cummins, Lyon, Hazlewood.

India

Not the best last month or so for Indian Test cricket. They looked well on track for a third ICC Test World Championship final (they lost the first two) but a shock 3-0 defeat to New Zealand at home recently means a re-think is needed. They’re still second but a comprehensive defeat here, always possible when you’re up against Australia away from home, could change all that.

If results haven’t been good over the past few weeks, then neither has the injury news. It’s too soon for the excellent fast bowler Mohammed Shami to return from injury, while skipper Rohit Sharma misses out after becoming a father again, and Shubman Gill sustained an injury in training.

KL Rahul will almost certainly open instead of Sharma with Devdutt Paddikkal, who was in Australia with India A, added to the squad and likely to bat at three, something of a problem position for the tourists.

The inexperienced keeper-batsman Dhruv Jurel, who only has three Tests under his belt and none in Australia, will take KL Rahul’s place in the lower middle-order. It will be interesting to see if they give Jurel the gloves and just ask Pant to focus on his batting, but the smart money is on the latter keeping wicket.

There may however be a last-minute change of mind with Sarfaraz Khan playing at six, instead. It wasn’t so long ago that he hit 222 not out in a First Class match and followed that up with 150 against New Zealand two weeks later, a game India still lost.

As ever, India won’t be able to resist playing the three-dimensional Ravindra Jadeja (and rightly so) with either Ravi Ashwin or Washington Sundar joining him as the other spin option, unless they think Jadeja can do the job by himself.

Jasprit Bumrah is skipper in Sharma’s absence.

Possible XI: Jaiswal, Rahul, Paddikkal, Kohli, Pant, Jurel/Sarfraz, Jadeja, Ashwin/Sundar, Bumrah, Deep/Rana, Siraj.

Pitch and Conditions

We’re at Perth Stadium. Not the WACCA of old with the quickest and bounciest wicket in the world - that one stopped being used in 2018 - but a very typical Australian wicket, nonetheless. Playing well off the back foot is essential here, as is knowing what to leave on length. Keeper and slips are constantly in the game at this ground.

Australia have a flawless record at Perth Stadium with four wins from four matches dating back to 2018, beating India, New Zealand, the West Indies and Pakistan during that period.

A few observations about that 146-run win over India back in 2018. Nathan Lyon was man-of-the-match with eight wickets in the game, Starc took five of his own, Kohli scored 123 despite ending up on the losing side and Usman Khawaja hit a good second-innings 72.

In the last two here Australia scored 598/4d against the Windies in 2022 and 487 against Pakistan last year so big runs are available if you know how to get them on this quick surface where you can go big, once you’re in. Batting first is the way to go.

Australia vs India Odds

Australia are 2/5, implied probability of 71.4%. India are 9/4 (30.8%) with the draw an unlikely 9/1, or 10%.

Beating Australia on their own patch is easier said than done, which is why that West Indies win last year can be viewed as such an anomaly.  And it’s never been done here, where the hosts are four from four.

India have caused some upsets here in Australia over the past few years and though the absence of Shami was something they will have prepared for, no Sharma or Gill presents a bigger problem. It’s one thing scoring big runs in what can be tricky conditions if you’ve played in them before but for Jurel or Khan it won’t easy, while KL Rahul very rarely opens these days, so will have to -re-adjust to that. India are clearly not at full strength, then.

So a few reasons to leave the 9/4 on the tourists well alone.

The 9/1 draw could be interesting if India bat first, post over 450, Australia respond with a similar score and the wicket stays true. But that said, there haven’t been any draws in the (small) sample of four matches played here.

Australia should win but then again, that price of 2/5 is telling you that anyway. Better to sit this one out in terms of the match winner and learn some things ahead of the next Test.

0.5pts Ravindra Jadeja to be Top Away Team Batsman @ 16/1 & 0.5pts Ravi Ashwin to be Top Away Team Batsman @ 28/1

In at least one match in this Series, Ravindra Jadeja or Ravi Ashwin will rescue India from a top-order collapse brought about by the pace, bounce and menacing lines and lengths of Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood. That’s not a statement of fact but rather a theory; but one that has legs.

After all, Jadeja, who is likely to bat at seven has four centuries and 21 fifties from his 77 Tests, averaging 35, while Ashwin’s numbers are pretty impressive themselves. With six centuries, that's two more than Jadeja, though his 14 fifties and average of 25.9 aren’t quite as good as what the CSK man has.

Of course, not all those milestones were reached under pressure after the top-order failed and obviously not all of them resulted in wins on the top batsmen market.

But some certainly were. In the recent Series against New Zealand Jadeja top-score twice in the Second Test with 38 and 42, while back in September it was Ashwin in business, top-scoring with 113 in the First Test, beating Jadeja’s next-best of 86 in the process!

Crucially, if there is to be a top-order collapse, it might just be here. Not just because the Perth wicket may catch India’s batsmen off guard more than if it was towards the end of the Series but also because of the two absent batsmen. Paddikkal and Jhurel/Khan may go on to have good matches but it’s hard to argue that the team wouldn’t be stronger with Sharma and Gill in the side and Rahul down at six, rather than opening.

Following that narrative, they’re more likely to be part of a batting collapse than if the two senior men were around.

Splitting stakes between Jadeja (16/1) and Ashwin (28/1) could be way to go.

1pt Mitchel Marsh to be Top Home Team Batsman @ 8/1

For Australia, you could make all sorts of cases for different players.

Labuschagne (7/2) for example hit 143 and 50 here in Perth back in 2019 against New Zealand, followed by 204 and 104 not out in the same match here at Perth again in 2022. So he likes playing here.

Khawaja (4/1) is probably the most consistent Test opener in the world bar England’s Ben Duckett at the moment, while Travis Head (also 4/1) is a run machine, whatever the format.

But the value option appears to be Mitch Marsh. Over the last 10 Tests Australia have played, no-one has scored more than his 750 runs at an average of 47. And he was in the runs the last time Australia played here against Pakistan, hitting 90 and 63, although on the day, neither of those were enough to top score.

He’ll bat at six so there’s always the concern someone might be on a hundred by the time he comes to the crease, but then again, he’s an 8/1 shot, not 2/1, so we can’t have it all our own way.

Besides, he can score quickly when in the mood and may be up against a tiring attack, so can catch up with a big score, if needed.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...