Zepeda vs Cabrera Predictions: ‘Camaron’ will continue his rise

 | Friday 5th July 2024, 15:54pm

Friday 5th July 2024, 15:54pm

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Knockout artist William Zepeda takes on Giovanni Cabrera this Saturday, July 6 at the Toyota Arena in Ontario, California. The lightweight fight will be screened live on DAZN.

Here are my Zepeda vs Cabrera predictions ahead of this clash of world-ranked contenders.

Zepeda vs Cabrera Tips

  • Zepeda in round five @ 14/1
  • Zepeda by KO @ 1/2

Zepeda is in an unusual position. The 30-0 puncher is one of the few subjects that all four sanctioning bodies can agree on. The WBC, WBA, IBF and WBO all list ‘Camaron’ as their number-one contender. His right to a title shot is undisputed, you might say.

So why isn’t Zepeda getting one? Especially given the fact his fourth-round TKO of Maxi Hughes in March was a WBA and IBF title eliminator? The reason comes down to timing. 

Shakur Stevenson defends his WBC strap this weekend against Artem Harutyunyan. WBA king Gervonta Davis just retained his gold by knockout of Frank Martin last month. Vasiliy Lomachenko, the IBF titlist, only won the title in May. Denys Berinchyk also won his WBO strap in the same month. 

With the champions unavailable and his claim to face them unassailable, Zepeda could have put his feet up. He doesn’t need to be fighting this weekend. Particularly not against a world-ranked contender in Cabrera. 

The Mexican warrior has always been an active fighter. Excluding his debut annum of 2015, where he only turned over in November, and the pandemic nightmare of 2020, Zepeda has never fought less than twice in a calendar year. Waiting for one of the champions to fancy it was never on the agenda for the 28-year-old.

Cabrera is not a huge name but he is ranked in the WBC and WBA top-10s, Zepeda has not chosen a slouch here. There are clues on his record as to why he has been selected, however. 

Cabrera has a 22-1 ledger but with only seven knockouts. That is manna from heaven for Zepeda, who is confident in a fire-fight. The Mexican is 30-0 with 26 knockouts, including stoppage victories in his last three outings.

Zepeda has fought at a higher level than Cabrera, with names like the aforementioned Hughes and Joseph ‘JoJo’ Diaz on his record. Wins over ex-champions like Rene Alvarado and former contenders such as Mercito Gesta came when they were past their prime, but still accounted for good experience.

His opponent doesn’t have the same sort of name value on his ledger. Cabrera’s best win was probably a 10-round decision over Gabriel Flores Jr. He also went the distance with ex-world champion Isaac Cruz, though a split decision loss was a bit too charitable for his performance.

What we have here is a contender on the cusp of a world title marking time with a decent but safe fighter. Zepeda has not been matched with a journeyman or gatekeeper. Cabrera isn’t a washed-up name from the past and will come to win. But the idea of him doing so feels extremely remote.

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Zepeda vs Cabrera Fight Odds

Zepeda sits at 1/20 here, a reflection of his domination at lightweight. Cabrera lags behind at 8/1 while the draw sits at 20/1 or 4.8% in implied probability terms.

Zepeda vs Cabrera Full Card

William Zepeda vs. Giovanni Cabrera, 12 rounds, lightweight 

Alex Martin vs. Pedro Campa, 10 rounds, super lightweight 

Japhethlee Llamido vs. Ryan Lee Allen, 8 rounds, super bantamweight 

Joel Iriarte vs. Yainel Alvarez, 6 rounds, welterweight 

Ricardo Sandoval vs. Angel Acosta, 10 rounds, flyweight 

Manuel Flores vs. Nohel Arambulet, 10 rounds, super bantamweight 

Joshua Garcia vs. Jason Buenaobra, 6 rounds, super featherweight 

Gael Cabrera vs. Mychaquell Shields, 6 rounds, super bantamweight 

Daniel Luna vs. Joseph Walker, 4 rounds, super featherweight

Zepeda vs Cabrera Prediction

Picking Zepeda to win here won’t pull up any trees on your betslip. Neither will his 1/2 for a knockout. So let’s get creative.

In his last 10 fights, Zepeda has been the distance twice, won three fights in the sixth round, two in the fourth, two in the third and one in the second. By my unofficial reckoning, Zepeda has fought four guys better than Cabrera in that time; Hughes (TKO4), Diaz (UD12), Gesta (TKO6) and Hector Tanajara (RTD6).

My findings have me leaning towards an early-to-mid knockout. I am backing Zepeda to wrap things up in the fifth round at odds of 14/1.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page

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