Walsh vs Vargas Predictions: Power-punchers can preach caution or destruction

Unbeaten Irishman Callum Walsh takes on the son of a legend, Fernando Vargas Jr., this Saturday, September 13. The bout takes place on the undercard of Saul Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford. The event will be broadcast live on Netflix. 

Here are my Walsh vs Vargas Predictions.

Walsh vs Vargas Odds

Walsh is priced as a 1/3 favourite in this one. Vargas is dangerous and 13/5 should tempt a few who are seduced by the power of 'El Feroz'. The draw is 14/1.

Walsh vs Vargas Fight Preview

Each man brings something to this fight that the other one needs. Vargas will glare enviously at Walsh’s world rankings. The California-based Cork man is rated by the WBO, IBF and WBC, sitting as high as fifth with the latter.

Vargas brings a standout name, albeit one that is not entirely his own. The 28-year-old is the son of Fernando Vargas, the two-time super welterweight king and one of the most controversial and watchable personalities of the 90 and 00s. It might be unfair to confine the younger Vargas to the parameters of his father’s legend, but the kid has recycled papa’s ‘El Feroz’ nickname for a reason.

This is a brave piece of match-making due to the mirroring between the pair. Two undefeated prospects, both boasting real power. Walsh is 14-0 with 11 KOs, Vargas has won 17 without defeat and has finished 15 of his victims. Match-ups like this are always a treat. Boxers with real skin in the game squaring off.

Another reflective element with this 154-pound twosome is stylistic. Both are southpaw power-punchers who use a right hand lead to try and draw the opposition onto a hard-luck left. More often than not, that potent shot ends fights. 

It is a state of play that could send Saturday’s match-up one of two ways. Either the two will cancel each other out, with both Walsh and Vargas looking primarily to establish that range-finder right. Or the rivals will be forced to open up and throw bombs to establish dominance. Fans will be hoping for the latter.

Walsh has the better wins on his record. Scotland’s Dean Sutherland was a 19-1 former Commonwealth title challenger who failed to last a round with the 24-year-old phenom. Elias Espadas is a respected gatekeeper who lost a technical decision to Walsh. 

Perhaps Callum’s best moment so far was his two-round destruction of fringe contender Przemyslaw Runowski. The Pole holds a win over Samuel Vargas and had taken Michael McKinson and Josh Kelly the distance. Walsh decimated him, putting a real stamp on his place in the division going forward.

Vargas meanwhile flattened Gonzalo Gaston Coria last time out, a fair yardstick who had been in with Jaime Munguia and current unified middleweight champion Janibek Alimkhanuly. That was the Californian’s first scheduled 10-rounder, though his quarry could only last into the fourth. The rest of the 28-year-old’s victims have been journeymen or club-level pros for the most part. 

As evidenced by the above, it is Vargas who is taking the greater leap here. But Walsh is brave nonetheless. After all, the pride of Cork is the one with more to risk. A win or two over some warmed-over names from yesteryear would likely land Callum a world title chance given his rankings. But instead, Walsh walks onto a worldwide Netflix stage against an extraordinary power-puncher. It is that sort of risk that is the true measure of a potentially world-level operator.

Walsh vs Vargas Full Card

Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford

Callum Walsh vs Fernando Vargas Jr.

Christian Mbilli vs Lester Martinez

Mohammed Alakel vs John Ornelas

Serhii Bohachuk vs Brandon Adams

Ivan Dychko vs Jermaine Franklin Jr.

Reito Tsutsumi vs Javier Martinez

Sultan Almohamed vs Martin Caraballo

Steven Nelson vs Raiko Santana

Marco Verde vs Marcos Osorio-Betancourt

Walsh vs Vargas Prediction

As I said before, this fight offers two clear pathways. Either it will underwhelm as right jabs outnumber any and all other punches, with the two big-hitters worried what is coming back at them. Or each fighter will back their power for the sort of bombs-away punch-up a card as glitzy and well-watched as this deserves.

To tell you the truth, I see Walsh knowing too much for Vargas in either scenario. The American is a keen and powerful puncher, but he lacks a little sheen of technicality that makes a decent banger into a championship class fighter.

Power opens doors, but skill allows you an audience with those inside. Walsh is a bit more schooled in his work, having tested his theories against higher academics than Vargas has. I think that experience will see the transplanted Irishman prevail by stoppage at 7/4.

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