Stanionis vs Maestre Predictions: Stanionis the pick in clash of amateur standouts

WBA ‘regular’ welterweight champion Eimantas Stanionis defends his title against Gabriel Maestre this Saturday, May 4. The bout takes place on the undercard of Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia in Las Vegas, Nevada. DAZN will screen the show. Here are my Stanionis vs Maestre predictions ahead of a clash of former amateur standouts.

There is a lot of amateur pedigree between these two. Stanionis and Maestre met in the unpaid code in 2015, with Stanionis edging a decision. The two had reckoned on meeting again at the Rio 2016 Olympics, but both were eliminated and Stanionis turned pro the following year. 

Stanionis won the European Amateur Championships in 2015. Meanwhile, Maestre took bronze at the 2013 World Championships and competed at two Olympic Games. Both have broadly seen their amateur quality translate into the pro ranks. 

Each man is undefeated, though Maestre endured a 2022 draw with Olympic bronze medalist Taras Shelestyuk. Both have held versions of the WBA world crown. Stanionis is the reigning WBA ‘regular’ ruler, having beaten Radzhab Butaev for the strap last time out. Maestre won the WBA’s interim version in just his fourth fight, climbing off the canvas to outpoint Mykal Fox. Many felt he was fortunate to emerge with that unanimous decision victory. 

This meeting is a fascinating clash of two men who, despite an eight-fight discrepancy in professional contests, find themselves in similar positions. Each man competed at the top of their sport as amateurs. Both have gone unbeaten in the professional ranks, but are yet to truly stand out in a crowded division. Both men are seeking a signature win to back up their Olympic pedigree.

Such is the nature of their low-key pro careers, it is arguable whether a win for either here would count as that signature victory. But it would certainly be a start, taking the ‘0’ of an old amateur rival and lifting a world title belt in the process.

There are some big names on each man’s record, but they were faced in the twilight of their careers. Maestre stopped former two-weight world champion Devon Alexander in three rounds a year ago. But ‘The Great’ was 36 and the defeat was Alexander’s fourth in a row. Meanwhile, Stanionis went to a No-Contest with ex-WBA welterweight champion Luis Collazo in 2021 after a clash of heads opened up a cut on his foe. 

Eventually, one or both of these men will have to mix it up with the best of their era if they want to be taken seriously. Feasting on yesterday’s men will not sustain them forever at the forefront of the boxing zeitgeist. A victory in this bout should propel the winner into more meaningful fights.

As for who will secure that victory, I like Stanionis here. Both have a tendency to plant their feet a little too much, but the champion is tighter defensively. Stanionis also tends to be less predictable, with a wider boxing vocabulary than that of Maestre. I think he will prove too rugged for the challenger in this one and take a convincing decision win, priced at 13/8.

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