Serrano vs Meinke Predictions: ‘The Real Deal’ goes 12 rounds again

WBA, WBO and IBF featherweight champion Amanda Serrano takes on Nina Meinke this Saturday (00:00 Sunday UK, DAZN). ‘The Real Deal’ is heavily-favoured to retain her titles as she boxes over the 12-round distance for the second time in her professional career.

Betfred Insights’ chief boxing writer, Joey Mills, offers his predictions for exactly how this featherweight showdown will pan out.

Amanda Serrano is expected to have an easy time with Nina Meinke in Saturday’s unified featherweight championship collision. Odds of 1/50 on a Serrano win give her a 98 per cent probability of emerging with her trio of titles intact. When you review the form guide, it is easy to see why. 

Serrano has lost just twice in her 49-fight professional career. The first of those losses was dealt out by Frida Wahlberg 14 years ago. Serrano lost a 10-round challenge for the WBC super featherweight championship on that occasion. The only other reverse on her record was a razor-thin split decision defeat to Katie Taylor in arguably the best fight of 2022. The latter is a fight Serrano has been keen to revisit, acknowledging that she would acquiesce to a 10-rounder in order to get the rematch signed. 

Serrano’s two defeats are unlikely to offer much inspiration to Meinke come Saturday. The Wahlberg fight came over a decade ago, with Serrano in the nascent form of the formidable fighter she would become. Meanwhile, Taylor is arguably the greatest female boxer of all-time. It is hard to see Meinke following in the footsteps of Serrano’s conquerors.

At the age of 35, ‘The Real Deal’ is at a point where analysts equip themselves with microscopes, looking for any sign of decline. Serrano has not offered much in the way of symbols indicating an erosion of her powers. It says everything about her primacy that the champion has begun taking on 12-round bouts with longer rounds at this stage of her career. The exceptional Taylor aside, no one could touch Serrano over 10-twos. The Puerto Rican has had to move the goalposts simply to test herself. 

As with her last bout, a victory over Danila Ramos, the main talking point here will be Serrano fighting over the same distance male champions do. She deserves all the credit in the world for taking a stand and using her platform to campaign for what she believes in. But in terms of picking a winner here, it is a remarkably simple task. Serrano exists on a different plain to Meinke, whose main triumphs have come at European title level.

Katie Taylor is the only fighter to have stopped Meinke. I believe with Serrano pacing herself for the full 12, this one is going to a wide points decision in favour of ‘The Real Deal. Serrano is 5/4 to win this one on points. Given the fact Serrano has not secured a stoppage for three years this seems like a logical choice in this unified world title attraction.

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