Santillan vs Norman Jr Predictions: Santillan to march on to WBO title shot

World-ranked welterweights meet this Saturday, May 18 as Giovani Santillan takes on Brian Norman Jr. The fight takes place at the Pechanga Arena in San Diego, California and will be aired live on Sky Sports Action.

Here are my Santillan vs Norman Jr. predictions ahead of top-level welterweight war.

Santillan is taking quite the risk here. He is the mandatory challenger to the WBO welterweight championship currently held by Terence Crawford. ‘Bud’, who also holds the WBA and WBC straps, has agreed to move up in weight to face WBA 154-pound king Israil Madrimov.

Santillan could have waited, secure in the knowledge he would get either a shot at Crawford if he comes back down or a shot at the vacant title if he remains at 154 pounds. But instead, he stakes that lofty number one spot with the WBA against the body’s 10th-ranked contender, Brian Norman Jr.

It’s a brave move but perhaps one born out of necessity. Santillan’s last fight took place in October, when he scored a sixth-round knockout of Alexis Rocha. With Crawford’s shot at Madrimov not taking place until August, Santillan would be risking a year or more of inactivity. 

So ‘Gallo de Oro’ has aimed to stay limber with a fight in the interim while the Crawford situation sorts itself out. Fair play to him, because Santillan could definitely have chosen an easier battle. 

Norman comes into this one with an unbeaten record of 25-0, boasting 19 knockouts with one No Contest. The American is the power-puncher in this fight, with Santillan having 17 knockouts from his 32 outings. Santillan has mixed at a higher level, which could have eaten into that stoppage percentage, but Norman is known for knocking guys out.

This could end in something of a war. While he doesn’t do it as frequently as Norman, Santillan has his share of highlight-reel KOs. If this fight opens up we could be in for a real war. Usually these sort of meetings go one of two ways. We either see two men frozen in caution or two warriors swinging until one goes out on his shield.

With so much at stake, I can see the former scenario happening, at least at first. But without venture nothing is gained in this all-or-nothing sport. Norman is well aware that he can close the distance between number 10 and number one in the rankings with a victory here. 

That could mean that, after a quiet opening, he ramps up the pressure. Santillan will be forced to fight fire with fire. Both men are capable of bringing the heat. Each man is also in possession of a great deal of speed. The more you look at this fight, the more you see how great this is as a style match.

So if these men do throw caution to the wind, what then? While Norman does have the power advantage, I feel Santillan is quicker at administering his particular brand of violence. He also has greater experience against top fighters. Last time out, he knocked out a world-ranked fighter in Rocha. I am backing him to do the same here.

The Santillan knockout is priced at 6/5. I feel there is drama in this one and both men could be hurt before it's through. But when push comes to shove, ‘Gallo de Oro’ is better-equipped to take the win and move on to his mandated WBO title shot. 

Get up to £5 in Free Bets if your PickYourPunt on Fury v Usyk loses!

How to qualify?

• Place a bet on any PickYourPunt market on Fury v Usyk (odds of 3/1 or greater) after 10:00 on 17/05/24.
• Receive 50% of your stake back in Free Bets up to £5 within 24 hours if your bet loses.

You can find all our latest boxing tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page