Paul vs Perry Predictions: Mike Perry is Jake Paul’s fall guy

Jake Paul takes on Mike Perry this Saturday, July 20 at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. The cruiserweight eight-rounder will be broadcast live on the DAZN platform. The undercard features the likes of unified featherweight champion Amanda Serrano, unbeaten prospect Ashton ‘H20’ Sylve and ex-WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

Here are my Paul vs Perry predictions ahead of this latest influencer boxing offering.

Paul was initially scheduled to be walking into a very different challenge this Saturday. ‘The Problem Child’ was originally supposed to be facing former undisputed heavyweight champion Mike Tyson on this date. ‘Iron’ Mike had to withdraw from the summer showdown due to an ulcer flare-up, with ex-UFC star Perry stepping in to fill the date in Jake’s diary.

This was supposed to be Paul’s big step-up. It says a lot about the company he generally keeps that facing a 58-year-old man is seen as a vast improvement on his level of opposition. But to Paul’s fanbase, who can name about five boxers between them, the Tyson brand carries weight. 

Paul’s fans were reared on YouTube. On the video-sharing platform, Tyson never ages. You can pull up footage of him making mincemeat of Michael Spinks, levelling Larry Holmes and butchering Frank Bruno. In a prevailing culture where nostalgia and the cutting-edge exist simultaneously, where you can watch Kenan & Kel and The Bear in the same binge, Tyson is forever.

Reality bites harder than teeth on an ear and Tyson was forced to pull out of this battle of the generations. But everyone involved in bringing you the Paul vs Perry fight wants you to remember what is at stake. What the next chapter will be. One of the main fight posters doesn’t even feature Perry at all, instead depicting Tyson’s head looming above Paul, like when the deceased Bleeding Gums Murphy talked to Lisa on The Simpsons. ‘Mike’s got next’ is the wording.

So why should the public care about a fight that even the promoters seem unbothered by? If this is merely a promotional tool for the Tyson showdown, if it even happens, then what intrigue does it hold as a combat sports event? Sadly, very little.

It is hard to buy into the hype here when the scenario is so familiar. “Jake Paul vs retired MMA fighter” is a well-worn trope by now. Perry’s one pro boxing outing came in a decision loss to Kenneth McNeill, who is now 13-5. While he has a knack for bare knuckle boxing, where he has gone 5-0 largely against fellow UFC retirees, he has no pro boxing pedigree whatsoever.

Perry is not even the best ex-UFC star Paul has faced. ‘The Problem Child’ has beaten the legendary Anderson Silva, knocking the ancient ‘Spider’ down in the process. Silva had at least had some success in pro boxing, including a win over Chavez Jr. Perry’s “Controversies” section on Wikipedia is twice as long as the “Boxing” section.

Which is primarily why he was given this assignment. Perry appeals to the target demographic. Fans of influencer boxing don’t want boxing at all. They want controversy, social media flashpoints and explosive incidents. It’s WWE without the acrobatics

Paul pursuing a 58-year-old man was bad enough. But fighting yet another Octagon relic is somehow worse. At least the Tyson fight, if you can call it that, had the intrigue of what would happen if Mike landed first. The fleeting possibility that the former ‘Kid Dynamite’ still packed enough of an explosion to remove Paul from the sport once and for all.

But this fight just feels like watching a repeat. Paul has learned enough inside the squared circle to hold off the likes of Perry. As ridiculous as it would have sounded when he first crossed over, Paul now has more boxing experience than these men. His 10 pro fights lacked quality and value but he still had them. Those ring minutes were still logged. Against fighters like Perry, that is enough.

Jake Paul vs Mike Perry Fight Odds

Paul is 2/9 to get the job done here, a reflection of his experience in picking off ex-UFC fighters. Perry is a 7/2 underdog here, giving him an implied probability of 22.2% for a victory. The draw is available at 12/1.

Jake Paul vs Mike Perry Full Card

Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry; Cruiserweight 

Amanda Serrano vs. Stevie Morgan; Women's super lightweight 

H20 Sylve vs. Lucas Bahdi; Lightweight 

Tony Aguilar vs. Corey Marksman; Lightweight 

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. vs. Uriah Hall; Cruiserweight 

Shadasia Green vs. Natasha Spence; Women's super middleweight 

Julio Solis vs. TBA; Lightweight 

Alexis Chaparro vs. Kevin Hill; Middleweight 

Angel Barrientes vs. Edwin Rodriguez; Super bantamweight 

Ariel Perez vs. Dane Guerrero; Light heavyweight

Jake Paul vs Mike Perry Prediction

Perry is tough, that much is true. I feel that grit combined with Paul wanting to protect the Tyson payday will lead to a distance fight here. Look for ‘The Problem Child’ to outbox his man rather than become embroiled in a firefight. 

My selection is Paul by decision at odds of 23/10. With Tyson looming, the influencer is likely to go safety-first here. 

I also like the Either Fighter To Have a Point Deducted market, which is attractive at 7/2. These are uncouth affairs at the best of time, with MMA fighters sometimes relying on muscle memory with the odd wrestling move. I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone penalised here.