Paul vs Joshua Predictions: The Problem Child meets The Problem Solver

Jake Paul takes on two-time unified heavyweight champion of the world Anthony Joshua this Friday, December 19. The eight-round heavyweight clash takes place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. Netflix will air the most talked-about boxing event of the year live on their platform.

Read on for my Paul vs Joshua predictions.

Paul vs Joshua Odds

AJ is the favourite for this one, which is a given. The 36-year-old is marketed at 1/12 while his unconventional opponent is 6/1 for the victory. The draw is priced at 22/1, a stalemate which would be a victory in itself for Paul.

Paul vs Joshua Fight Preview

Read those names again. Drink it in. Jake Paul. Anthony Joshua. This is 2025. This is boxing.

It isn’t, of course. Not really. Not according to many, including BOXXER main man Ben Shalom. Despite all Jake’s pleas that we include him among the sport’s genuine competitors and Eddie Hearn saying the influencer is “a top 50 cruiserweight”; Friday’s fight simply isn’t boxing. 

It is an occasion. An athletic endeavour shrouded in celebrity and permitted by the post-COVID 19 mass media landscape. It is a happening closer in scope and significance to Avengers: Endgame, the Eras tour and Will Smith slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars.

But at its core, in among the panning shots of Hollywood glitterati and TikTok stars you wouldn’t recognise if they turned up for Christmas dinner, the glamour and the trending moments of viral ‘aura’; there will be up to eight rounds of professional boxing in the heavyweight division.

One man is over-qualified for this reality. Anthony Joshua is an Olympic gold medalist, having sparked a revolution at London 2012. AJ has held the IBF, WBO and WBA heavyweight championships on two occasions. The towering Watford man has beaten 28 opponents and knocked out 25 of them. Joshua has beaten six men who have held versions of boxing’s heavyweight title. He has even knocked out one man who held the UFC Heavyweight Championship.

But Paul did not get where he is by making peace with reality. The starry-eyed, acid-tongued social media star is the first fistic Gen Z messiah. No boxer has brought more fans to the sport and attracted a greater global audience while holding a worse standing in the profession. His record is 12-1. Paul’s opposition has either been pensionable, pitiful or both. 

But Jake’s pay-per-views sell by the bucketload. He brings in a global audience on Netflix that would send the middle-aged, forever-children of Stranger Things back to the Upside Down. When he opens his mouth, no matter what emanates from it, the world listens.

Paul will not be looking at those 28 career wins that AJ boasts. He will be laser-focused on Joshua’s four losses. Particularly the knockout defeats to Andy Ruiz Jr and Daniel Dubois. Because ‘The Problem Child’ knows he is not capable of the technical ecstasy of Oleksandr Usyk, who beat Joshua twice in dominant points displays. But like Snicker-munching folk hero Ruiz and hard-punching, precarious Brit Dubois, Paul is coming in with just a puncher’s chance.

Joshua arguably has more to lose than the bleach-blonde bluffer in the opposite corner. He is approaching a fight where an early knockout win is a minimum requirement. Where even a competitive victory on points or via late stoppage will condemn his career. 

Sure, even if Joshua wins we will still be fed the reported Tyson Fury fight. That bout is past its sell-by date, but it feels almost mandatory to finally tie a ribbon on the boxing decade that began with Fury’s ascension against Wladimir Klitschko. 

But will anyone take that fight seriously if AJ is tentative against Jake? If he huffs and puffs his way through on points? What if, as many fear but Hearn denies, Paul is ‘carried’ to the end? Allowed to look good? Such a display would fatally wound the legitimacy of Joshua vs Fury.

So a knockout win is the only solution. Is it one Joshua will produce? Will Paul allow him to, either in the ring or out of it? That is where the intrigue of this controversial contest sits. We are being sold a professional heavyweight boxing match. Will we actually get one?

Paul vs Joshua Full Card

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Paul vs Joshua Predictions

Paul can handle himself by now. While meaningless from a world-level boxing perspective, you don’t come through fights with the likes of UFC great Anderson Silva or washed-up ex-champ Julio Cesar Chavez Jr if you can’t defend yourself at all times.

But Joshua is different. Physically, even at a Jake-capped 245 pounds, he is Paul’s clear superior. ‘El Gallo’ has been fighting almost exclusively at cruiserweight, apart from the Mike Tyson sham. Joshua will weigh more than Paul and stands five inches taller than him.

The experience? AJ. The power? AJ. The technique? AJ. The chin? Debatable. But Paul has only scored seven knockouts in his career and none of those came against good opposition. Arguably none of his wins have, but that’s a matter for another day.

Speaking logically, Joshua should win this by early knockout. So I am going to take a leap of faith and assume everything we see on Friday can be taken at face value. I’ll take AJ in rounds 1-2 at 11/10.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.