Pagan vs Montgomery Predictions: ‘Double J’ tries to quell Maliek’s ‘Mayhem’

Rising lightweight prospect Joshua James Pagan gets a dose of ‘Mayhem’ this Thursday, October 23 as he takes on Maliek Montgomery. The fight headlines at the Coliseo Pedrin Zorrilla in San Juan, Puerto Rico. DAZN will carry all the action live.

Read on for my Pagan vs Montgomery predictions.

Pagan vs Montgomery Odds

This is a close one. Pagan is the favourite, with the unbeaten man priced up at 5/6. Montgomery is not used to being an underdog. The price is 21/20 if you feel his loss last time out was an aberration. The draw, always illuminated in a close one like this, is priced at 16/1.

Pagan vs Montgomery Fight Preview 

Pagan is on that well-travelled road from amateur success to hopes of professional achievement. It is not easy to traverse. For every Oleksandr Usyk or Anthony Joshua who parlays unpaid glory into pro championships, the honour roll from any Olympics or major amateur championship is littered with names seen for the last time.

‘Double J’ won the USA Boxing National Championships in 2021 in the welterweight division. Pagan will be keenly aware that for every Errol Spence Jr. and Mike McCallum to emerge with that crown, there is an Anthony Thompson or LeChaunce Shepherd. Legends spliced with those who never kicked on from their amateur days.

Legend is a lofty bracket to aim for. For now, Pagan will make do with titles. There is the vacant NABO lightweight crown on the line here. Not a major honour by any means, but the WBO’s national bauble is a handy way of accessing their world rankings. The most recent previous holder, Abdullah Mason, meets Sam Noakes for the vacant WBO world title in November.

Pagan is only 13 fights into his pro journey, so the top belts are a little way off yet. But Montgomery feels like a well-timed test. An elevation in competition for ‘Double J’ after a conventional pro upbringing. 

Early fights saw Pagan take out the overmatched likes of Glenn Mitchell and Calvin Glover. Wesley Rivers, 1-0 at the time, did push him as far as a majority decision, but the Grand Rapids glovesman mostly had it his own way at the start.

Wins over then-unbeaten pair Ronnell Burnett and Roger Hilley were impressive. An ‘0’ in the loss column does not make you a phenom, but meeting fighters who are only used to victory is important in the development of a young fighter.

So what can Montgomery teach the 25-year-old? Quite a lot in my view. The Las Vegas resident was 20-0 until gatekeeper Jeremy Hill upset him last time out. The veteran had been in with top names like Nahir Albright and current IBF lightweight kingpin Raymond Muratalla. Montgomery bested him early, with some fine body work. But after being visibly hurt in the fourth round, Hill unholstered his switch-hitting weapons and enjoyed success down the stretch to take a unanimous decision.

Not every prospect reaches the top with an unblemished record. But they do get viewed differently for a while. Montgomery would not have to fight Pagan if he had beaten Hill. That blemish on his copybook has seen him temporarily moved from prospect to opponent. The b-side beckons. But it is all about what you do with it.

Look at Amir Khan. The unfairly-derided Olympian was blasted through the atmosphere by Breidis Prescott but went on to unify titles at super lightweight before embarking on huge pay-per-view fights with era-defining names like Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez and Terence Crawford.

Everything to play for then, for both competitors. Pagan is the undefeated next big thing. Montgomery the unbowed contender who once occupied Pagan’s plinth. Only one way can take home the NABO gateway to bigger things.

Pagan vs Montgomery Full Card

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Pagan vs Montgomery Prediction

Good fight, this. Maliek is a puncher, taking out 18 of his 20 foes. If he pours on the pressure a little more in that pivotal fourth round with Hill, we might be talking about ‘Mayhem’ going all the way.

But that defeat did render a blueprint on how to beat Montgomery. The 30-year-old likes to come forward and has a potent body attack. But Pagan’s win over hug-happy Haskell Rhodes shows he can rough it.

James Bernadin tried to push Pagan back and got out-boxed for his troubles. At his best, ‘Double J’ can work angles and distance to pick off a power-focused foe. The left is low, the shoulder is rolling, he is rarely static. The Philly Shell is not airtight yet and that left will have to work harder than ever as a body defence. But I reckon Pagan’s skillset suits this fight.

I’ll take Pagan to win at 5/6. I reckon he goes the long way to do it, given his four knockouts in 13 fights. But I’m confident Pagan comes out victorious.

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