Valdez vs Molina Predictions: Valdez’s long-awaited homecoming needs to impress

Two-weight world champion Oscar Valdez takes a rather low-key outing this Saturday, September 6 against Ricky Medina. The fight takes place at Domo Binacional in Mexico. ESPN Deportes carry the American broadcast, while there is no announced TV partner for the UK.

Read on for my Valdez vs Medina predictions.

Valdez vs Medina Odds

Valdez is the obvious favourite, with a 1/18 price in his favour. Medina is the 9/1 underdog. The draw is available at 22/1.

Valdez vs Medina Fight Preview

Saturday is about one thing and one thing only for Valdez. This bout with Medina is a must-win outing and he must win it well. At the age of 34, there will be few opportunities left for Valdez if he fails.

It is a last dance scenario that Valdez is taking seriously. Former trainer Manny Robles is back in the fold, the man who led the Mexican to the WBO featherweight title back in 2016. Robles, who led Andy Ruiz Jr. to his defining upset over unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua, will have a job on his hands.

Valdez was implored to retire by many, including his promoter Bob Arum, when former foe Emanuel Navarrete hammered him in six rounds of their rematch last year. Their 2023 fight had been thrilling. But Valdez seemed to carry the weight of that and other wars into the sequel. While Navarrete was better, Oscar was no longer able to match him as he had the previous year. 

It is tough to tell a fighter when to hang up the gloves. Especially one like Valdez, who usually bounces back. When Shakur Stevenson widely outpointed him in 2022, knocking the son of Sonora down in the process, Valdez dusted himself off and secured the first Navarrete shot.

When Valdez lost that fight in exhilarating fashion, he clubbed Aussie contender Liam Wilson to win an interim title and a ticket to fight Navarrete again. Despite the beating he took in that rematch being a concerning one, you can’t blame Valdez for assuming he can dust himself off as always.

Medina is certainly the man you want to be dusting yourself off against. The most charitable word for him is “unheralded”. ‘El Castigo’ has lost two of his last three, all in sub-10 round fights. The only name of note on his record is former world champion Raymond Ford, who won every round against him in 2022.

This is a homecoming fight in every sense of the word. This is not just Valdez returning to Mexico for a fight for the first time in 12 years. But this bout takes place in his home state of Sonora. The opponent has been hand-plucked to give him the best chance of victory. Nothing is certain in boxing, but if Valdez does not win this fight then retirement should be the only thing that follows.

Valdez vs Medina Full Card

Oscar Valdez vs. Ricky Medina

Israel Ramirez vs. Jose Amaro

Angel Patron vs. Carlos Vargas

Ricardo Gonzalez vs. Leobardo Quintana

Luis Corona Parra vs. Yohan Orduno

Valdez vs Medina Prediction

Valdez is more of a puncher than Ford, who Medina lasted the distance with. I can see the Mexican exhibiting that power. Medina has nine knockouts in 16 wins and none at this sort of level.

I expect Valdez to walk his man down and secure the knockout at 5/6.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.