Opetaia vs Briedis Predictions: Jai knows the way

IBF cruiserweight champion Jai Opetaia defends his title against Mairis Briedis on Saturday, May 18. The bout will take place on the undercard of Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk’s undisputed heavyweight title bout. The card will be screened on both DAZN and Sky Sports Box Office. Here are my Opetaia vs Briedis predictions ahead of their cruiser bruiser.

The bout is a rematch of 2022 battle, in which Opetaia shocked the world by dethroning then-IBF king Briedis. The bout was a coming-out party for the impressive Aussie, who went from unsung to undeniable in one night. 

Over the past year, Opetaia has solidified his position as the man to beat at cruiserweight. Knockout wins over British pair Jordan Thompson and Ellis Zorro have laid his credentials bare. The two victories lasted under five total friends, displaying Opetaia’s ruthless streak.

Quick finishes and brutal efficiency have been hallmarks of Opetaia’s game since the very beginning. The only fighter who has managed to be competitive with the 28-year-old so far is Briedis himself. Opetaia emerged from the fight with the title, but also with a broken jaw. Their 12-rounder finished with scorecards of 115-113 and two lots of 116-112. A clear victory for the IBF king, but not the sort of routs he is used to.

The biggest variable here could be the fact that, while Opetaia has been asserting his dominance, Briedis has been sat on the shelf. Injuries have kept the Latvian star out of the ring. This rematch will be his first fight since July 2022, when he lost the title to Opetaia.

At the age of 39, that sort of lay-off can be fatal to a boxer’s world title dreams. There is no doubting Briedis’ pedigree. He has beaten quality former or reigning cruiserweight champions such as Yuniel Dorticos, Marco Huck and Krzysztof Glowacki. He arguably gave headliner Oleksandr Usyk his toughest fight, losing a majority decision to the current heavyweight king in 2018.

As well as the IBF, WBC and WBO titles, Briedis also won the 2019/20 World Boxing Super Series. His career has been gilded by achievement. There is no argument about the quality of Briedis’ career. But his future is a different story.

Can the Latvian boxer summon the same vitality that proved too much for all but Usyk? Can Briedis perform better than he did in the first Opetaia fight? Can he improve against a conqueror who is a decade his junior?

I don’t think he can. Briedis is one of the modern cruiserweight greats. Along with Usyk, Huck, Dorticos and Glowacki he was part of a thriving scene in the 2010s. But, Usyk aside, those men have seen better days. 

Glowacki has lost three of his last four fights, all by knockout. Huck hasn’t fought since 2020 and hasn’t contested a world title fight since 2017. Dorticos hasn’t fought for two years and hasn’t contested a world championship bout in four years. Apart from Usyk, who stands on the precipice of immortality, Briedis’ era is made up of yesterday’s men.

Which wouldn’t be such a problem if Opetaia wasn’t so definitively the man of tomorrow. Still in his 20s, knocking out challengers for fun. The Australian looks set to lead the way through the remainder of the decade. 

Briedis will go out on his shield. He has only ever lost to the best and if he drops another fight to Opetaia, that much will remain true. But I do feel like the challenger will suffer a knockout this time. 

Opetaia is one of boxing’s more lethal punchers. Meanwhile, Briedis is pushing 40 and may just be suffering from some ring rust. An active, sharp Briedis could make this a fight. But the 39-year-old is neither.

I feel Opetaia will wrap this up in the championship rounds. Briedis won’t go down without a considerable fight. But eventually I feel he will succumb. My pick is a 9/2 selection, which is Opetaia to win in rounds 10-12. Welcome to the new era.

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