Nunez vs Diaz Predictions: Pour some ‘Sugar’ on me, in the name of glove

Eduardo ‘Sugar’ Nunez defends his IBF super featherweight championship for the first time this Saturday, September 6, when he takes on Christopher Diaz. Los Mochis in Mexico will host the champion’s first fight in his home nation since 2023. The fight will be broadcast live on DAZN.

Read on for my Nunez vs Diaz predictions ahead of this world title affair.

Nunez vs Diaz Odds

‘Sugar’ Nunez is 1/50 to score the win here. Diaz is 14/1 for victory while the draw is priced at 20/1. Read on to find out how this world title fight pits two foes with such a discrepancy against one another.

Nunez vs Diaz Fight Preview

‘Sugar’ Nunez has been touted as the next Mexican boxing star. It is a lofty standing, but one the IBF kingpin and Matchroom, his promoters, believe in. 

The signs have been good so far. A six-round loss to Hiram Gallardo in 2018 was an early learning experience. Gallardo faced Sunny Edwards the following year with an IBF ranking belt on the line. All things considered, that loss is no shame considering Nunez was barely out of his teens at the time. 

Since then it has been all wins, all the time. ‘Sugar’ has that special ingredient that makes Mexican fighters must-see attractions. The 28-year-old is a knockout artist. 27 of his 28 victories have come inside the distance, with only Masanori Rikiishi taking it to the cards for the vacant IBF title back in May.

Nunez went to Japan for that title bout, undaunted by facing Rikiishi in his hometown Yokohama. The plan had been for the Les Mochis man to face then-champion Antony Cacace. ‘Apache’ vacated the title he won from Joe Cordina last year to instead meet, and defeat, Leigh Wood. Many fans accused Cacace of “ducking” Nunez, while the outgoing champion cited the pivot as a business decision. 

But Nunez cannot afford to look back. He must train his eyes forwards, with Diaz standing in front of his further ambitions. ‘Pitufo’ is perhaps a curious choice for a world title challenge at this stage of his career. But the USA-born Puerto Rican does bring experience at the highest level.

Diaz fought Masayuki Ito for the vacant WBO super featherweight crown in 2018. ‘Smurf’ hit the deck in the fourth round and was widely-outscored for a unanimous defeat. 10 months later, a 10-0 Shakur Stevenson seemed to put paid to Diaz’s championship ambitions for good, picking him apart on points over 10 rounds.

After an eight-round knock-around in journeymen class, a victory over former world title challenger Jason Sanchez bagged Diaz another crack at glory. This time it was the featherweight title on the line, with WBO boss Emanuel Navarrete standing in his way. ‘Vaquero’ dominated and stopped Diaz in the 12th round, to put a punctuation mark on the performance. Diaz won plenty of fans through his bravery, but this was a mauling.

Former IBF super bantamweight champ Isaac Dogboe handed Diaz a second consecutive loss, winning a majority decision. It was a close, absorbing contest. But once again, when the lights were on bright, Diaz could not get a big victory.

That loss was almost four years ago now and the 30-year-old still has not got such a victory. Three stoppages of ordinary fighters were followed by a points loss to 19-0 prospect Henry Lebron last November. The only fight Diaz has had since was an eight-round points win over 9-0 Jose Meza.

Somehow, this has landed Diaz another opportunity to become world champion. I think the Puerto Rican’s slide since the narrow Dogboe defeat should have capped his title shots at two, personally. There is nothing on his resume since to justify this chance. 

But this fight is not envisioned as a rigorous test of Nunez’s credentials. After an away day to bring the belt back from Yokohama, perhaps the Mexican deserves to parade his newly-won title in his hometown. I just see Diaz being as over-matched as he was on his previous two dates with championship destiny.

Nunez vs Diaz Full Card

Eduardo Nunez vs Christopher Diaz

Pedro Guevara vs Adrian Curiel

Yoali Mejia Mosqueda vs German Valenzuela Barreras

Jorge Lugo Cota vs Jesus Lopez Perez

Luis Castillo vs TBA

Alexis Molina Aguirre vs Martin Jimenez Delgado

Andre Farca vs Alejandro Jair Sarabia Ortega

Jesus David Madero Heras vs Luis Carlo Armenta Cota

Angel Sandoval Gonzalez vs Victoriano Nunez

Alejandro Tapia vs Juan Macias Valenzuela

David Alexander Liera King vs Santiago Israel Alarcon Arellano

Gabriela Tellez vs Rocio Guerrero Dominguez

Omar Rico vs Jahir Reyna Juarez

Jesus Anuar Vazquez Valenzuela vs Ernesto Sanchez Rodriguez

Hector Beltran vs Moises Martinez Zumaya

Erick Soto vs Ricardo Adrian Rosales Ortiz

Bryan Hernandez vs Jose Carlos Lucero Leyva

Jose Flores Alvarez vs Geremy Fernando Valdez Mercado

Nunez vs Diaz Prediction

‘Sugar’ is a puncher, plain and simple. Rikiishi may have heard the final bell, but Nunez still threw punches in high volume. Meaty swings designed to finish fights. Two men from 29 opponents have survived such an onslaught.

I no longer think Diaz can survive such pressure. Still only 30 years of age, I do think the ring miles are adding up. ‘Pitufo’ only has six fights and two years on Diaz, the latter true in terms of both age and professional experience. But Diaz has been in harder fights and his tenacity is a concern.

Of his six fights that went beyond the 10th round, Diaz is 1-5. Admittedly we only have the Rikiishi win to go on when it comes to Nunez going that far, but he looked good late in Japan. The Mexican was still trying to finish the fight in the 12th round with all the aggression and output he had shown in the first session.

Nunez also has a pair of 10th-round knockouts and one in the ninth on his record. Whether it comes early (14 knockouts in the first two rounds) or late, the superstar from South of the Border usually gets it done. I think Nunez will rack up another knockout here at odds of 1/8. But to give our odds a little shine we can be more specific. I’m going to pick the sweetly-named star to win in rounds 7-9 at 23/10.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.