Mielnicki Jr vs Cruz Predictions: Youth to trump experience

Vito Mielnicki Jr takes on Ronald Cruz in Las Vegas on Saturday, May 4. The super welterweight contest takes place on the undercard of Saul Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia, live on DAZN. Here are my Mielnicki Jr vs Cruz predictions ahead of this battle of prospect vs veteran.

Mielnicki is just 21 years old but has already amassed 18 professional fights, losing one. He is coming off the back of a busy 2023, in which he fought four times and scored four knockouts. ‘White Magic’ picked up his best win so far last April when he stopped the capable Jose Charles in four rounds.

The former four-time Junior National Golden Gloves Champion is still serving his boxing apprentice, which is why 2021’s majority decision loss to James Martin can probably be discounted. Mielnicki was a teenager at the time, yet to fully realise his physical and technical potential.

The Jersey boy is becoming a man though and Ronald Cruz will test that progress on Saturday night. An unfussy Californian puncher, he is very much par for the course in terms of Mielnicki’s recent level of competition. At 19-3-1 he is far from a journeyman, but he is growing accustomed to a role as a reasonable test for boxing’s emerging talents.

It was in this capacity that Cruz was employed last June, when he met highly-rated former amateur standout Xander Zayas. A lot of figures in the boxing fraternity are very excited about the Puerto Rican and Cruz was brought in to give him some rounds. The 32-year-old did his duty, taking 21-year-old Zayas the full eight rounds before dropping a unanimous decision.

This 10-rounder is designed to fulfil a similar purpose. Cruz is charged with giving Mielnicki a thorough workout between those ropes. The veteran will resent the implication and I have no doubt he will be coming to win. But this bout has been devised for two primary reasons. To get Mielnicki in front of the huge audience a Canelo card attracts and to give him some experience.

As for what that experience will look like, I feel like it won’t be overly taxing but it could be a long night for Mielnicki. Nobody has stopped Cruz before and, while Mielnicki will have two more rounds to do it than Zayas did, I’m not convinced he’ll managed it.

I feel this one goes to the cards, albeit with the younger man winning pretty much everything between first bell and last. Cruz brings durability, stamina and experience. What he doesn’t bring is enough power, guile or technique to knock Mielnicki off his impressive stride. I’m going for a Mielnicki points victory at odds of 21/10.

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