Mbilli vs Derevyanchenko Predictions: Christian gets an acid test

Christian Mbilli takes on Sergiy Derevyanchenko this Saturday, August 17 at the Centre Videotron in Quebec, Canada. The super middleweight battle will be screened live on Sky Sports Action. 

Here are my Mbilli vs Derevyanchenko predictions ahead of this exciting encounter.

Mbilli is on the verge of greatness. Ranked at number one by The Ring and in the top three of every other sanctioning body, world titles are almost guaranteed to lay in his future. The 29-year-old is 27-0 with 23 big wins coming by way of knockout. However you slice it, Mbilli is an impressive fighter.

The Frenchman is riding a run of three knockout victories. In his last outing, Mbilli took out Britain’s Mark Heffron in the opening round with a well-picked body shot. ‘Solide’ has an eye for a finish and an exciting style. Both should stand him in good stead going into Saturday’s scrap.

Mbilli has beaten decent names like Rohan Murdock, Carlos Gongora and Nadjib Mohammedi. The victories have taken him close to the summit of the division. But, it has to be said, Derevyanchenko is by far the best fighter Mbilli has ever faced.

The Ukrainian’s quality is not immediately obvious when you glance at his record. 15-5 does not scream world class. But Derevyanchenko has developed a reputation as someone who not only takes top fighters to their absolute limit, but who has been unfortunate not to be awarded victories over some of them.

Many fans certainly felt he had done enough to pip Jaime Munguia in their June 2023 meeting. Derevyanchenko ran Danny Jacobs incredibly close back in 2018 while Carlos Adames needed a majority decision to get past him in 2021.

For a fighter who is best-known for his glorious failures, the zenith was a star-making 2019 war with Gennady Golovkin. The IBF middleweight championship fight served to put Derevyanchenko on the map. 

An argument could be made that the Ukrainian pushed ‘GGG’ harder than any fighter not named Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez ever has. Many fans have posited that if the fight had been held under the old 15-round championship distance, that Derevyanchenko was best-placed to win.

Of course, you get nothing in this game for hypothetical victories. Ultimately, despite the thrilling fights he has given us and the conniptions he has given multiple world champions, Derevyanchenko is 15-5. His last victory over a world class fighter came in 2019, when he outscored Germany’s ex-world boss Jack Culcay. 

At the age of 38, it seems like the cult favourite’s powers may be waning. Derevyanchenko has lost four of his last six encounters. The victories have come against the middling likes of Vaughn Alexander and Joshua Conley. One wonders if ‘The Technician’ still has the capacity to push world level competitors to the limit.

We shall get our answer against Mbilli. The French contender has proven himself at a certain level. Whether Derevyanchenko is in decline or not, he still exists on a higher plane than Mbilli’s 27 previous victims. This is a robust test for both men. Roll on Saturday.

Mbilli vs Derevyanchenko Odds

Derevyanchenko is 18/5 to turn the clock back with a surprise victory over Mbilli. The Frenchman is 2/9 to prevail while a draw can be backed at 18/1.

Mbilli vs Derevyanchenko Full Card

Christian Mbilli vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko; Super middleweight​ 

Osleys Iglesias vs. Sena Agbeko; Super middleweight 

Dzmitry Asanau vs. Matias Carlos Adrian Rueda; Lightweight 

Arslanbek Makhmudov vs. Guido Vianello; Heavyweight 

Leila Beaudoin vs. Lizbeth Crespo; Women's super featherweight 

Jahi Tucker vs. Santiago Fernandez; Middleweight 

Abdullah Mason vs. Mike Ohan Jr; Lightweight 

Thomas Chabot vs. Matias Ezequiel Guenemil; Super featherweight 

Wilkens Mathieu vs. Facundo Nicolas Galovar; Super middleweight

Mbilli vs Derevyanchenko Prediction

I think this will be a gruelling night’s work for Mbilli. Derevyanchenko has fought a laundry list of excellent opponents and not one of them has stopped him. The Ukrainian is a master of keeping a fight close.

However, he very rarely presses home that advantage when matched against the best. I think Mbilli belongs in that category and thus I can see him scoring a decision victory here. You can back my selection at 11/10 if you feel like the Frenchman is taking this one on the cards.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.