Kelly vs Agyarko Predictions: Boxing’s avoided men meet in centre-ring

IBF super welterweight champion Josh Kelly makes his first title defence against Irish contender Caoimhin Agyarko (6pm, DAZN PPV & Ultimate). The bout takes place as the chief support to Anthony Joshua’s headliner at Jeddah Stadium against Kristian Prenga.

Read on for my Kelly vs Agyarko predictions.

Kelly vs Agyarko Odds

Champion Kelly is marketed at 1/5 to defeat his Irish challenger. Agyarko is on the market at 4/1 as the 18-0 super welterweight contests his first world title. If you fancy a draw, that’s up at 14/1 as we go to press.

Kelly vs Agyarko Fight Preview

Kelly had convinced British fight fans of his class before he annexed the IBF 154lbs title from the dangerous and undefeated Bakhram Murtazaliev. ‘Pretty Boy’ had his work admired by millions on Channel 5 as he gritted through a tough bout with current European super middleweight kingpin Troy Williamson and blasted out Flavius Biea in a round.

The coming-out party for many was his absorbing majority decision win over the then-unbeaten Ishmael Davis. Kelly shone at Wembley Stadium on a star-studded card headlined by Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois and featuring Liam Gallagher’s last pre-Oasis comeback solo performance.

So despite coming in as an underdog against the vicious and calculating power of Murtazaliev, Kelly was still fancied in British trade circles. His unorthodox style has befuddled many a foe and the Russian KO artist never quite solved the puzzle. Kelly hung tough at times and deservedly out-scored a man who had eviscerated Tim Tszyu in three rounds in his most recent outing.

What makes this fight fascinating, alongside the always-tasty England vs Ireland angle, is the fact Agyarko also boxes to confound at times. He calmed the tides of the aggressive Williamson with head movement and jerky, angular raids. But he can also handle himself in the pocket. Agyarko wore a gruesome eye injury through his own win over Davis, another common opponent, but he recovered from a knockdown and took home the points win.

When two back-foot, counter-punchers fight the question is; who will take the initiative. Both have thrived when picking off pressure fighters. But neither is one-dimensional.

I was ringside last year when Agyarko was forced to push the pace against another Kelly, Ryan Kelly. The tricky Brummie is no relation to the IBF champion, but his fight with Caiomhin is instructive. Agyarko eked out a majority decision on the front foot, closing his man down but losing some rounds to sharp counters. It was nip-tuck all the way. Opinion in the cavernous, toilet-less warehouse that passes for Sheffield’s Park Community Arena was split on the victory. I thought Agyarko had done enough, but believe me it was tight.

Kelly, too, has sometimes been forced to initiate. Against gatekeeper Wiston Campos back in 2019, he did this by timing jabs from mid-range and scoring with looping overhand rights. In a decision win over Gabriel Corzo back in 2023, Kelly’s attack-minded assault involved jabbing to draw counters before his footwork created gaps to unleash heavier stuff.

The centre of the ring will be the key battleground where this fight is won and lost. But each man has put in hard yards to even get there.

It was assumed Kelly’s time had been and gone. Status as one of Britain’s most avoided fighters saw his resume robbed of bigger names. A 2021 stoppage defeat to former WBA ‘regular’ boss David Avanesyan for the European welterweight strap nudged the gifted stylist further into the ‘who needs him?’ club.

Kelly’s Channel 5 stardom, with terrestrial TV still capable of carrying a fighter into more homes than sport-specific subscription outlets, and his excellent display at Wembley against Davis, finally ripped the shackles off the proud Sunderland man.

Agyarko is on-course to be the first black Irishman to contest a world title. But anyone who has spent time in Agyarko’s company knows that distinction isn’t enough. The 30-year-old is here to win.

The Irishman has been chomping at the bit for a big fight and thought he had one when he was set to square off with the gifted Brandon Adams. But the unbeaten American collapsed in his hotel room the day before the bout, leaving Agyarko out in the cold.

Happily, Agyarko’s world-level dreams have not dissipated. He now meets a quality champion in a battle of under-appreciated super welterweights. A fight like this has been a long time coming for both men. A shot at glory for one and the first defence of a long-coveted title for the other.

Kelly vs Agyarko Full Card

Anthony Joshua vs Kristian Prenga

Hamzah Sheeraz vs Simon Zachenhuber

Josh Kelly vs Caoimhin Agyarko

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Oleksandr Khyzhniak vs Lenny Patrach

Jacob Bank vs Pawel August

Mikie Tallon vs Orlando Pino

Nishant Dev vs Cesar Diaz

Ziyad Almaayouf vs Frank Lucian Mango

Mohammed Alakel vs Lydon Chircop

Sultan Almohammed vs Efren Besalduch

Omar Hikal vs Brian Castellano

Mohamed Mabrouk Yehya vs Bryan Zapata

Kelly vs Agyarko Prediction

As I detailed above, this battle of traditional counter-punchers is going to come down to who is the finer pressure fighter. I make Agyarko a touch more hittable when he’s on the front foot, with Kelly employing something of a hybrid style in coming forward. 

When the champion is on the attack, he still judges range, still pops in counters, but does so behind a probing jab and unleashes the right hand when openings appear. Kelly is a puzzle, even when he’s got his foot on the gas.

Agyarko can meet this challenge head on and invite Kelly’s sharp returns, or try and wait it out from distance and try to win a chess match. The Irishman is an excellent fighter and a worthy challenger. But I make Kelly just slightly better-placed to emerge with the win on points (1/2).

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