Inoue vs Ioka Predictions: O brother, where art thou?

WBC bantamweight champion Takuma Inoue defends his gold against decorated four-weight world champion Kazuto Ioka this Saturday, May 2. The bout serves as chief support at the Tokyo Dome as Takuma’s brother, the great Naoya Inoue, defends the undisputed super bantamweight crown against Junto Nakatani. The event will be broadcast live on DAZN.

Stay tuned for my Inoue vs Ioka predictions ahead of this high-stakes co-main event.

Inoue vs Ioka Odds

Inoue is the favourite here at 4/11 while his legendary foe is marketed at 12/5, following a pair of losses to Fernando Martinez last year. The draw is priced at 14/1.

Inoue vs Ioka Fight Preview

While the night is all about Naoya Inoue and his crunch clash with worthy rival Nakatani, Takuma and Ioka deserve this huge platform for a quality bantamweight title clash.

The younger Inoue cannot help but be overshadowed by his illustrious brother. Anyone would suffer by comparison to the supreme fistic talent of the post-Mayweather era. But Takuma is a worthy champion in his own right.

You cannot mention Japanese boxing champions without mentioning Kazuto Ioka. A four-weight champion from strawweight to super flyweight, the 37-year old has been a defining figure in the country’s boxing legacy.

Ioka is a fighter who, after two losses last year to Fernando Martinez, is starting to be defined more by his legacy than his current abilities. There is no shame in losing to the Argentine dangerman, but seeing Martinez pounded into defeat in 10 rounds by Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez doesn’t help Ioka’s case.

Martinez was an undefeated world champion when he got hold of the Japanese icon. The first fight was thrilling, with Ioka demonstrating speed that befuddled his foe but also letting Martinez’s greater workrate win out in key moments.

The second saw the South American slugger pin his man back and use aggression to overcome Ioka’s greater boxing acumen. It was another tense affair, but perhaps a clearer demonstration of Martinez’s present-day superiority.

Ioka has been out since, scoring a fourth-round knockout of unheralded Maikel Ordosgoitti. It was largely a counter-punching display, something he couldn’t get away with against a ferocious fighter like Martinez.

Interestingly, Inoue’s best work often comes with the same back-foot invitation to a more attack-minded challenger. Last time out, the Kanagawa rocket pulled off a points win over former kickboxer Tenshin Nasukawa with cool, pull-back counters and a willingness to let his less experienced foe dictate the pace.

That unanimous points win last November bagged Inoue the WBC bantamweight belt. It was his second world title, after losing his WBA crown to Kumamoto sensation Seiya Tsutsumi.

Inoue had won that vacant belt against intense pressure fighter Liborio Solis. Once again, Inoue’s work was a lesson in the finer art of counter-punching. A fistic jape in which he allowed the dogmatic Venezuelan believe he was dictating the pace, all while pulling his opponent’s marionette strings until the evening ended with a world title belt around Inoue’s waist.

When two defensive masters meet, it goes one of two ways. Either a phony war ensues, in which neither man chances his arm knowing he is fighting his own reflection and one mistake could shatter the mirror. Or they abandon their tendencies trying to win on the front foot and we get a real throwdown. Fans will hope for the latter, but there is something to be said for the purist battle of two excellent counter-boxers.

Inoue vs Ioka Full Card

Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani

Takuma Inoue vs Kazuto Ioka

Toshiki Shimomachi vs Reiya Abe

Sora Tanaka vs Jin Sasaki

Kosuke Tomioka vs Shogo Tanaka

Deok No Yun vs Yuito Moriwaki

Yoshiki Takei vs DeKang Wang

Inoue vs Ioka Prediction

In a fight of two well-matched competitors, you have to look at the intangibles. Ioka has lost two of his last three fights and is 37 years old. While sports science and less fights means that number isn’t as prohibitive as it used to be, we are still more used to seeing top heavyweights in their late 30s over bantamweights.

Inoue is fresher and has considerable momentum. The Nasukawa win has aged well, given the former Floyd Mayweather exhibition foe’s impressive stoppage of Juan Francisco Estrada last month. Inoue is carving out a niche for himself in the shadow of his iconic brother. Now he needs to put his style to the test against a man who has taken counter-punching to the very top of his sport.

I back Inoue to do just that and I reckon he retains his title with a decision on the night at 4/6. 

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