Inoue vs Akhmadaliev Predictions: We’ve had the biggest, now prepare for the best

Arguably boxing’s pound-for-pound king, Naoya Inoue looks to prove it this Sunday, September 14 against Murodjon Akhmadaliev. The undisputed super bantamweight title will be on the line at the IG Arena in Nagoya, Japan. The bout will be streamed live to UK viewers on the Top Rank Boxing Facebook channel. 

Here are my Inoue vs Akhmadaliev predictions.

Inoue vs Akhmadaliev Odds

Normally in this section I keep it to outcome odds. Inoue’s price for a win is 1/9, but that is not why you’re here. ‘Monster’ is to 2/5 to score the knockout, which is the first market most go to when the Japanese superstar fights.

Akhmadaliev is no mug and there are not many fights at super bantam where he’d enter at 13/2, or 13.3% implied probability. The draw is 18/1, a result neither fighter has had as a professional. 

Inoue vs Akhmadaliev Fight Preview

Akhmadaliev will tell you that his crack at the mighty ‘Kaibutsu’ has been a long time coming. A cynic will tell you this fight would have arrived a lot sooner if Akhmadaliev had done his bit. 

As always with an Inoue fight, there is an element of the M. Bison about it. To paraphrase the Raul Julia-illuminated villain from 1994’s fever dream Street Fighter, “The day Inoue graced your ring was the most important day of your life. For him, it was Sunday”.

For all its importance in the life and work of Akhmadaliev, if all goes to plan this will not be the biggest fight in Inoue’s near future. Win in Nagoya and the 32-year-old will close out 2025 with a battle against David Picasso, before a mega-money, mega-status clash with Junto Nakatani in 2026. A clash with his most pre-eminent pretender will be the biggest all-Japan boxing match in history.

But Inoue never overlooks what is in front of him. It is hard to remember the last time he entered the ring without his next foe either already being known or at the very least being heavily-rumoured. When you’re the best in the world, which Inoue is in your humble author’s opinion, there is always a queue. The fact the 32-year-old has not one but two opponents already lined up says it all.

Nakatani differs in that he is the first Inoue foe where a changing on the guard is the theme. It remains to be seen whether the heir apparent has emerged too early to take the throne from the still-lethal king.

But that is a debate for another day. The fact is that Akhmadaliev has earned a shot he could arguably have had two years ago. When Inoue moved up to super bantamweight and relieved Stephen Fulton of the WBC and WBO titles, Akhmadaliev held the WBA and IBF straps. But an upset loss to former kingpin Marlon Tapales via split decision put the brakes on this fight. 

Inoue would instead relieve Tapales of those belts with a 10th-round knockout and he has held them ever since. For Akhmadaliev, it was time to hit the comeback trail. His work on the rebound has been sharp and successful. Three fights, three wins, three knockouts. Can’t say fairer than that.

But what does Akhmadaliev bring to the table that Inoue has not seen in his 30 fights and 30 wins? The challenger from Uzbekistan does pack a wallop. 11 of 14 victims have failed to hear the final bell. Inoue’s chin has been more fallible at super bantamweight than at any other point in his illustrious career. Nobody dropped the ‘Monster’ from light flyweight to bantamweight. But Ramon Cardenas had Inoue on the deck last time out, while Luis Nery also floored him last year. 

Could that be the key for Akhmadaliev? Certainly, the fact Inoue has publicly shrugged off the idea of going to featherweight suggests super bantamweight poses a physical challenge close to his limit. Two knockdowns suffered in four fights feels significant. Of course, Inoue went on to destroy Nery and Cardenas in fights that were not even close, knockdown aside. But when a fighter is as perfect as Inoue, one focuses on the first blemish to appear.

Akhmadaliev also has good composure and excellent shot selection. There is very little Inoue has not seen in a prize ring, but the challenger at least asks uncommon questions. I do not see Akhmadaliev coming to survive or being particularly daunted. If he goes out, he will do so on his shield.

Whether that is their chosen destiny or not, a warrior’s comeuppance is always the outcome against Inoue. It is six years since anyone even managed to take him the distance. The legendary Nonito Donaire did that in 2019’s Fight of the Year. Inoue punished his insolence in two rounds of a rematch. You have to go back almost a decade to May 2016, to find the last boxer Inoue faced who he has never knocked out. That man was 23-20-5 David Carmona, whose record suggests that being the answer to this particular quiz question may endure as his finest legacy.

Inoue vs Akhmadaliev Full Card

Naoya Inoue vs Murodjon Akhmadaliev

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Inoue vs Akhmadaliev Prediction

Inoue by knockout. No? Alright let’s try and make it a bit more interesting for you. Akhmadaliev is gifted enough to make it a fight, with his style more multi-dimensional than the fighters ‘Kaibutsu’ makes absolute mincemeat out of. His only defeat came via split decision, so there is nothing to suggest he will fold at the first sign of trouble.

But the second sign? The third? Like death, the taxman or the Mrs Brown’s Boys Christmas Special when you’re too full of turkey to reach the remote; Inoue always gets you in the end. I reckon that end comes in rounds 7-9 at 5/2.

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