Garcia vs Duarte Predictions: Back the Mexican to pull off the shock win

Houston, Texas sees a potentially explosive fight in the junior welterweight division in the early hours on Sunday morning, as fallen idol Ryan Garcia attempts to start the rebuild of his career, against a dangerous looking Mexican in Oscar Duarte. We've previewed the fight and given you our predicitions.

There appears to be some serious bad blood in the run up to this fight but interestingly enough, not between the two main fighters.

Ryan Garcia (23-1-0 (19ko)) took the opportunity in the pre-fight press conference to launch an assault on his own promoters Oscar De La Hoya and long-term associate Bernard Hopkins, claiming that they wanted him to lose the fight and also took a jab at Hopkins bizarre recent line where he stated "I will see how Ryan looks and then make my personal decision on whether he should fight again."

De La Hoya responded in a now-deleted tweet, questioning Garcia's mental health. Oh the irony... 'KingRy' is currently in litigation with Golden Boy Promotions over his contract and it was clear that Garcia feels under-appreciated and badly represented by ODLH and his team.

Garcia is one of the only remaining superstars on the promoter's books and whilst his selling power may have diminished, following his KO loss to Gervonta 'Tank' Davis in April, he still is a huge name in boxing.

His first fight at the new 140lb limit of junior welterweight is against a really tough looking opponent in Oscar Duarte Jurado (26-1-1 (21ko)). The Mexican is also co-promoted by GBP and looks a live threat going into this one, having won his last 11 fights via stoppage.

However, he has never fought any one anywhere near the pedigree of Garcia and it will be interesting to see if the 27-year-old has the ability to step up several levels in one.

Where and when is the fight taking place?

The fight is taking place at the Toyota Centre in Houston, Texas on Saturday 2nd December and will be broadcast live and exclusively on DAZN in the UK.

The event is a Oscar De La Hoya promotion for Golden Boy Promotions, with the main card expected to start at 12am and the main event ring walk due to take place at around Sunday 4am UK time.

What does the full fight card look like?

• MAIN EVENT: Ryan Garcia vs Oscar Duarte Jurado
• Shane Mosley Jr vs Joshua Conley
• Floyd Schofield vs Ricardo Lopez Torres
• Darius Fulghum vs Pachino Hill
• Danilo Diez vs Jose Valenzuela Alvarado
• Sean Garcia vs Joseph Johnson
• Gael Cabrera vs Alejandro Dominguez
• Asa Stevens vs Dominique Griffin

(subject to change)

What are the fight odds?

Ryan Garcia is a solid 1/4 favourite with the Betfred traders, giving him a 80% chance of victory. Oscar Duarte is a 3/1 outsider, meaning he has a 25% implied probability of victory . The draw is available to back at 20/1, if you fancy this scrap to be a really close one.

What's been said?

Main press conference starts on the 25 minute mark.

"They're backing this guy to beat me, just like they thought (Romero) Duno would beat me. He was the next Filipino star, now it's the next Mexican star.

I've put everything into this fight, I'm extremely committed, first time for a long time. 2021 broke me , 2022 changed me and 2023 opened my eyes, I'm about to come back.

I'm laser-focused and that's where my confidence comes from. Oscar is a tough opponent, he's, here to fight but I'm here to make an example to the 140 (lb) division"

Ryan Garcia

"I'm very happy and content to be here, this was a dream and now it is a reality.

This Saturday, you'll see my best version, I have a great team and this Saturday, I'll be winning."

Oscar Duarte

Oscar Duarte to win via KO/TKO - 11/2

I'll fully admit, I came into writing this article not knowing much about the Chihuahua native but having watched his fight highlights and boy can he bang.

This is gonna be a good ol' Mexican standoff, as reflected by the 4/11 odds on this fight to not go the distance.

Both men are extremely explosive and heavy-handed and while I highly rate Garcia, he is clearly not in a good place with his promotional set-up and could come into this one too hyped up.

That looks like a fatal move against Duarte who is looking to take his head off and who has done to 21 other fighters in the past.

Garcia has shown he can be hurt in several fights in the past, including when he was dropped by Luke Campbell. Duarte looks to hit way harder than that and will be a much bigger man.

Given Duarte's lack of experience at this level, it would be no surprised to see 'KingRy' dispatch him but at odds of 11/2, I have to take a chance on the dangerous Mexican.

You can find all our latest Boxing Betting Tips on our Betfred Insights hub.