Foster vs Conceicao Predictions: An upset win for the eternal challenger?

 | Friday 5th July 2024, 13:33pm

Friday 5th July 2024, 13:33pm

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WBC super featherweight champion O’Shaquie Foster makes the third defence of his title this Saturday July 6, when he takes on Robson Conceicao. The bout takes place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The fight serves as the co-main event for Shakur Stevenson’s WBC lightweight title battle with Artem Harutyunyan. Sky Sports Action will screen the card.

Here are my Foster vs Conceicao predictions ahead of this super featherweight throwdown.

Foster vs Conceicao Tips

  • Conceicao to win @ 2/1
  • Fight to go the distance - Yes @ 1/3

Despite winning a pair of world title defences, Foster’s reign is yet to truly catch fire. He was excellent in outlanding the excellent Rey Vargas to win the crown in February 2023. But since then it has been a case of diminishing returns. 

Foster has felt like a movie hero, for whom the chase was ultimately more triumphant than the aftermath of the catch. There is a reason they cut Rocky off at the credits, rather than showing him huffing and puffing through mandatory title defences.

Against Eduardo Hernandez in October 2023, Foster was behind on the cards going into the 12th round before summoning a last-gasp knockout win. Then against Abraham Nova in February, the champion nicked a split decision. The fight was far-closer than expected, with a knockdown late on helping Foster on his way to a narrow points win.

By rights, both opponents should have been dispatched with the minimum of fuss. While Vargas was the favourite in their title fight, Foster has faced two big underdogs since. The irony is that his best performance came against the only member of the trio favoured to beat him. 

It goes back to that point about the chase being more exhilarating than the catch. Some fighters find winning a world title suits them better than defending one. If you put your whole life into pursuing something, it is natural to feel a creeping emptiness once you have secured your prize. Did Alexander not weep once his conquest was over?

If Foster needs a greater challenge in his search for meaning and motivation, look no further than Conceicao. The Olympic gold medalist and three-time title challenger is a proven commodity at world level. The Brazilian holds a win over Xavier Martinez and a draw with unbeaten phenom Emanuel Navarrete. Conceicao has gone the distance against show headliner Stevenson and Valdez in world title fights too. In short, he is the real deal.

The one step Conceicao has been unable to take is to lift a world title. He came mighty close last time out against Navarrete, getting up from two knockdowns and pounding the champion at the final bell. Even his opponent admitted he deserved a rematch but it never came to pass. Instead, he goes in with Foster.

It is a good fight for the challenger. You could make an argument that Foster would rank fourth on a list of the world titlists Conceicao has faced. That is not a shot at the incumbent, but more a reflection of the rarefied air in Conceicao’s lungs. Stevenson, Navarrete, Valdes and Foster would probably be the order most observers would place the fighters in.

There is an air of intrigue around this one. The card is main-evented by Stevenson vs Harutyunyan, a fight where Shakur’s win seems like a formality. But this co-main event has real jeopardy and real doubt over the outcome. A sight we should be far more accustomed to in boxing than we are these days.

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Foster vs Conceicao Fight Odds

Foster is a 4/9 favourite. Conceicao is out at 2/1. The draw, not out of the question given how close some of these boxers’ fights have been recently, is good value at 16/1. I’d normally steer punters clear of a draw, but it might just be worth a punt given the history of the fighters.

Foster vs Conceicao Full Card

Shakur Stevenson vs Artem Harutyunyan WBC World Lightweight Title

O'Shaquie Foster vs Robson Conceicao WBC World Super Featherweight Title

Keyshawn Davis vs Miguel Madueno

William Foster III vs Eridson Garcia

Kelvin Davis vs Kevin Johnson

Abdullah Mason vs Luis Lebron

Ali Feliz vs Robinson Perez

Keith Colon vs Hunter Turbyfill

Foster vs Conceicao Prediction

Foster has flattered to deceive in his world title defences so far. ‘Ice Water’ has looked lukewarm against opposition that he was expected to beat. Once again, Foster is the favourite in a defence of his world crown.

Meanwhile, Conceicao has left it all in the ring in his recent outings despite not emerging with a belt around his waist. I truly feel it will be fourth time lucky for the Brazilian here. Navarrete had him on the canvas, but he is a far more accomplished power-puncher than Foster. I think Conceicao will remain upright here and wreak havoc on the favourite.

My pick is Conceicao to get the job done on points here, priced at 2/1. Foster is yet to fight like a world champion and ultimately I think that will be his downfall.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page

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