Estrada vs Rodriguez Predictions: ‘Bam’ to take the torch by force

 | Friday 28th June 2024, 13:40pm

Friday 28th June 2024, 13:40pm

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The legendary Juan Francisco Estrada will defend his WBC and The Ring super flyweight titles against pound-for-pound-ranked Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez this Saturday, June 29. This superb match-up will take place at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. DAZN will broadcast the world title bout.

Here are my Estrada vs Rodriguez predictions ahead of one of this year’s most exciting fights.

Estrada vs Rodriguez Tips

  • Rodriguez on points @ 5/6
  • Fight to go the distance - Yes @ 1/2

The boxing landscape has been heavily tilted in recent years. Outside of Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez’s biannual emergence in the Nevada area and Naoya Inoue destroying all comers in Tokyo, the biggest fights have largely emanated from Saudi Arabia. But Estrada and Rodriguez’s meeting is proof that often, the most exciting fights are the ones that take place without the watchful eyes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Eminem and The Undertaker.

This is boxing at its best. In the challenger’s corner stands one of boxing’s most exciting practitioners. Already a two-weight world champion at the age of 24, ‘Bam’ Rodriguez is a fixture of any reputable pound-for-pound list. Now he plays the rare role of challenger as he chases the unrivaled divisional number-one.

In the champion’s corner we welcome Estrada. A living legend of the sport whose performances transcend titles. He has those too of course. ‘El Gallo’ is a two-weight world champion in his own right and currently holds the WBC and The Ring super flyweight gold. But the iconic trilogy he won against Roman ‘Chocolatito’ Gonzalez will live longer in the memory than any championship belt.

A decade separates these fighters, with Estrada now 34. The Mexican has also been out of the ring since December 2022, the occasion of his trilogy-clinching win over ‘Chocolatito’. These facts could put him at a disadvantage. 

First, the lay-off. Rodriguez has boxed twice since Estrada’s last outing, most recently stopping Britain’s Sunny Edwards in a flyweight unification battle. This combination of youth and freshness could be terminal for Estrada’s title reign.

The second point is more acute. Two of Estrada’s last three fights have come against Gonzalez. Their trilogy earned scores of fans specifically because of how punishing it was. Perhaps the lay-off was a reflection of how much a third go-round with ‘Chocolatito’ took out of Estrada. If that is the case, taking the ‘Bam’ fight is a huge risk. Rodriguez is the last fighter you want to meet if you’re ailing.

Rodriguez has made it a point to clear out the greats of flyweight and super flyweight. Longtime divisional leaders like Srisaket Sor Rungvisai and Carlos Cuadras, both former Estrada rivals, have each been beaten. Now ‘Bam’ looks to eliminate another icon of the super flyweight scene. Perhaps the greatest of them all.

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Estrada vs Rodriguez Fight Odds

The champion finds himself in the unusual position of underdog for this one, with odds of 4/1 that he will beat ‘Bam’. Meanwhile, challenger Rodriguez is a 2/9 favourite to take the titles and legendary scalp of ‘El Gallo’. A draw is priced at 14/1.

Estrada vs Rodriguez Full Card

Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Jesse "Bam" Rodriguez; For Estrada's WBC and Ring Magazine super flyweight titles 

Yamileth Mercado vs. Ramla Ali; For Mercado's WBC women's world super-bantamweight title Sunny Edwards vs. Adrian Curiel; Flyweight 

Arturo Cardenas vs. Danny Barrios; For Cardenas' WBC Continental Americas super-bantamweight title 

Fabian Rojo vs. Daniel Gonzalez; Welterweight 

Gabriel Muratella vs. Carlos Fontes; Bantamweight 

Leonardo Rubalcava vs. William Flenoy; Super-lightweight

Estrada vs Rodriguez Prediction

Estrada has won his last eight fights, since a 2018 loss to Srisaket Sor Rungvisai which he avenged the following year. ‘El Gallo’ has defeated every opponent he has ever faced, having also avenged losses to ‘Chocolatito’ and Juan Carlos Sanchez Jr. But I am afraid I must pick against him here.

I feel that ‘Bam’ is too young, too fresh and too strong for this version of Estrada. I am sure we will witness an almighty fight. The champion will go out on his shield and give everything he has. But time waits for no man and neither does Jesse Rodriguez. I’m going for the challenger by decision at 5/6.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page

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