Edwards vs Ward Predictions: Homecoming win for Rhys

Rhys Edwards squares off against former British champion Thomas Patrick Ward on Saturday, May 11. The vacant WBA intercontinental featherweight strap will be on the line at the Utilita Arena, in Cardiff. The card will be available to watch live on Sky Sports Action, with Lauren Price taking on Jessica McCaskill in the main event.

Here are my Edwards vs Ward predictions ahead of a firecracker of an undercard battle.

Edwards took a big step up in levels last time out when he faced Brad Foster’ ‘The Blade’ is a former British and Commonwealth champion with quality wins over the likes of Josh Wale and James Beech Jr. Still only 26, Foster has plenty left to offer the sport.

But Wales’ Edwards boxed superbly over the course of 10 rounds to score a 97-94 victory on the referee’s scorecard. After learning his trade with a succession of wins in four and six-rounders, Edwards graduated to 10-round level with a fine victory over a more-than-worthy opponent.

Now he squares off with another former holder of the Lord Lonsdale Challenge Belt. Ward has only tasted defeat once in his career, in extremely high-quality company.  Otabek Kholmatov thrashed him in five rounds, knocking the Brit down multiple times in the process. The fact Kholmatov then pushed highly-rated Raymond Ford to the limit in a WBA title challenge makes this result more understandable in hindsight.

While he might be short of world class, Ward is a tremendous domestic competitor. He holds wins over the likes of former world title challenger James ‘Jazza’ Dickens. A British title reign and stints with the IBF European belt have helped his reputation. This is far from a hometown canter for Welshman Edwards.

Edwards is favoured here, though not overwhelmingly so. Betfred have him at 1/2 to triumph by any method. This gives the home fighter an implied 66.7% percentage chance of victory. Understandable given the relative similarities in record, the fact Edwards has never lost and the venue.  

In terms of an outcome, I do not foresee either man getting this done inside the distance. Edwards has four knockouts from 15 wins while Ward has just five stoppages in his 34 victories. The 2/11 odds of the fight going the distance aren’t the most attractive, but they are as close to a sure thing as you’ll ever find. 

It will be interesting to see the vastly-greater experience of Ward play out. Edwards has only been 10 rounds once in his career but he is facing a fighter accustomed to championship bouts. Will the away fighter seize the initiative as this one goes longer? Or perhaps Edwards’ relative freshness will see him through to the end.

I’m edging towards the latter. This feels like Edwards’ fight to lose. The setting, the ascendant trajectory and the promise he has shown are a heady cocktail. Ward is by far the best fighter he has ever faced. But is the County Durham man blunted by his horror show against Kholmatov?

Ward has only fought one eight-rounder since and it was nowhere near as tough a fight as this. His mettle will truly be tested here. I feel that, in a way, he will pass that test. But not clearly enough to win.

My pick is Edwards to get the nod on the scorecards at 8/11. It feels like now is the time for the Welshman to propel himself into British title contention. What better way to do so than beating two former title-holders in a row? The Cardiff environs are just the icing on the cake for Edwards.

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