Dubois vs Miller Predictions: ‘Big Baby’ is a live underdog who just might get it done

Daniel Dubois was the moral winner for many when he faced WBA, WBO and IBF heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk. But the blow that winded the Ukrainian and kept him on the mat for a lengthy period was judged low by the referee. Usyk rallied and stopped Dubois in the ninth round. In boxing you get nothing for “nearly” and Dubois starts his climb back to the top on Saturday against Jarrell Miller.

‘Big Baby’ is a divisive figure in boxing. Undoubtedly talented, Miller has been the subject of a number of failed drugs tests. One such failure put the kibosh on a title shot against then-champion Anthony Joshua. The issue has reared its head in Riyadh, with ‘AJ’ and Miller exchanging a few words.

But Miller would do well to keep his focus on Dubois. Unfairly derided as a quitter in some quarters for both the Usyk defeat and a 2020 stoppage at the hands of Joe Joyce, this designation isn’t entirely fair. Particularly in the latter case, where a broken orbital bone took ‘Dynamite’ out of the action.

But Dubois has many gifts. His power is unquestionable, Usyk can tell you that even he alleges he felt it below the belt. 18 of Dubois’ 19 victories have come inside the distance. There’s a reason they call this guy ‘Dynamite’. He’s a fair boxer too, usually going about his work in a patient and thoughtful manner, creating openings for his power shots.

But in the minus column is that question of heart. His wins have come when they were supposed to whereas his defeats have come at a level above his other competition. Does Dubois have the mental fortitude when he’s facing a fighter that isn’t a long-shot to beat him?

Dubois’ chin is also a cause for concern. Former cruiserweight Kevin Lerena had him on the deck three times in their wild 2022 brawl. Dubois rallied to stop him but it was a worrying night. Usyk had him down twice too, another ex-cruiser who had stepped up. Obviously ‘The Cat’ is so much more, given he is an unbeaten two-weight world champion, but it is fair to say Dubois has been decked by fighters not noted for their power.

Miller is certainly noted for his. ‘Big Baby’ is 26-0 with 22 wins by knockout. He has largely fed on familiar fodder like Lucas Browne, Gerald Washington and Bogdan Dinu. While there a few bigger names than Dubois on his resume, none of them were close to their prime by the time Miller punched them towards the nursing home. 

But Miller brings size and strength into the equation. He nearly matches Dubois’ own 6-foot-5 frame at an inch shorter, but routinely weighs in at over 300 pounds. With a few exceptions, he has worn that weight well, with muscle making up a large percentage of his giant frame. Miller is unlike anyone else Dubois has ever fought.

Fights like this one are often settled by whoever lands a clean, hard shot first. If that is Miller, it is hard to see Dubois bouncing back given his history. If it is Dubois then Miller will be asked questions he has never had to answer before. It makes picking a winner difficult, but not impossible.

I’m leaning towards Miller in this one. He is the bigger, stronger man and he has less miles on the clock. While Dubois has the better resume, Miller has the confidence and physical freshness of a man who has never been defeated. Given the concussive power he possesses, it is hard to imagine Dubois standing up to the pressure Miller can exert. 

‘Big Baby’ is considered the underdog in the markets, but 11/4 for the American to stop Dubois is a fantastic bet. Standing up to the power of a genuine world class heavyweight is something Dubois has never quite managed. The pick here is for Miller to finish his man.