Dixon vs Carabajal Predictions: Rhiannon’s title destiny awaits

Rhiannon Dixon stands on the verge of glory this Saturday, April 13, as she takes on Karen Carbajal for the vacant WBO lightweight championship of the world. DAZN televise the 28-year-old’s first world title tilt. Warrington’s Dixon will be the home favourite, with Manchester’s AO Arena hosting the bout. Here are my Dixon vs Carbajal predictions ahead of this lightweight showdown.

If you were looking for guidance on how to win a world title fight at this famous Arena, you couldn’t do much better than Dixon’s trainer; Anthony Crolla. The former WBA lightweight champion effectively inherited the keys to the famous building when Ricky ‘The Hitman’ Hatton retired. ‘Million Dolla’ had five world title bouts within its iconic confines, including knocking out Darleys Perez in five rounds to win his global crown.

Now Crolla leads one of his charges into a world title bout for the first time. Dixon can glean plenty from her trainer about how to navigate this stage. Not that she has had much trouble with anything the sport has thrown at her so far. Dixon is 9-0 and has held the Commonwealth and European titles. This WBO title attraction is the logical next step for a fighter destined for the top.

Carbajal will be a thorough test of her world class credentials. The 33-year-old knows all about mixing it with the best. Her sole loss was a unanimous decision defeat to Katie Taylor for the undisputed lightweight championship. She might not have defeated the Irish icon, but spending 10 rounds in the company of arguably the greatest female fighter ever takes some doing. Dixon has enjoyed a fine career thus far, but she has never encountered greatness in the same way Carabajal has.

It is interesting to note that the Taylor defeat, taking place at Wembley Arena in October 2022, remains the only time Carbajal has boxed outside of her native Argentina. ‘Burbuja’ has collected some solid wins in her homeland. A victory over former unified world champion Edith Matthysse last time out teed the Dixon fight up for her nicely. But Carbajal is yet to prove her mettle as a road warrior.

She will have to adjust to a hostile environment. Manchester fight fans vociferously cheer on their own and Dixon, with Arena icon Crolla in her corner, can count on that support. They can also count on the skills with which the Warrington southpaw has earned this title chance.

Dixon’s dominance since turning pro in 2019 has been almost total. Peruse her record and you will find that not only has she never lost a fight, but she has scarcely dropped a single round. Last time out she trounced former WBC interim champion Katharina Thanderz in a shutout to lift the European title. Dixon has largely been untouchable so far, no matter what her opponent has brought to the table.

In this case, Carbajal brings endurance, durability and experience. Neither of these fighters are noted for throwing bombs, with a cumulative four knockouts in their combined 32 pro fights. This contest is going the distance unless something truly remarkable happens. This is reflected in the 1/8 odds of the fight going to the cards.

So who will triumph when it gets there? I can’t see past Dixon in this one. The Warrington boxer has hardly been troubled at all in her nine professional abouts. Nothing I have seen from Carbajal makes me think she can knock off her co-challenger. She’ll ask questions of the hometown fighter, but Rhiannon can and will answer them all. 

I’m going for the 2/5 shot of a Dixon points victory. There will be more challenging nights for her as champion, but her coronation in front of a packed Manchester Arena feels like destiny.  

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