Diaz vs Duarte Predictions: La Migrana to bounce back from Garcia loss

Joseph Diaz Jr takes on Oscar Duarte on Saturday, April 27 in a fight that could be career-changing for both men. The Save Mart Center in Fresno, California will stage the bout on the undercard of Jose Ramirez vs Rances Barthelemy. DAZN will televise proceedings. Here are my Diaz vs Duarte predictions ahead of a true crossroads fight.

Both men are more than familiar with the big occasion, but are coming into this one knowing there is no guarantee of main-event fights in their future. It is not too dramatic or final to argue that the loser of this one will fade from view, with only the victor permitted further dalliances with the spotlight.

Duarte’s last fight was a defeat, albeit one that has aged particularly well. The eighth-round stoppage he suffered at the hands of Ryan Garcia in December is perfectly understandable in context. ‘KingRy’ went on to shock the world last weekend by knocking Devin Haney down three times and sealing a decision win. 

As impressive as Garcia has been since, a defeat is still a defeat. A knockout loss, particularly the first of your career, can send a fighter on a downward slope. Duarte will be keen to resign the Garcia loss to the history books with a win here. He gets that chance against a fighter who has excelled at the very highest level. Duarte cannot pass this chance up to add Diaz’s scalp to his resume.

Former IBF super featherweight and WBC interim lightweight champion ‘Jo Jo’ Diaz once had the boxing world at his feet. In 2021 he was the reigning holder of the latter belt and had lost just one of 34 fights. Since then, he has dropped four of his last five. It has left a fighter once synonymous with the conversation around elite lightweights on the outside looking in.

As with Duarte’s loss to Garcia, there are caveats considering the strong level of competition Diaz has faced. Haney outscored him, a result in which there is no shame considering he went on to become the divisional undisputed champion before moving up. William Zepeda beat him on the cards too, but Diaz remains the only man to take the destructive warrior the full 12-round distance.

An upset defeat to contender-turned-gatekeeper Mercito Gesta was the moment many started to see Diaz’s decline. After years of hard fights, was this majority decision defeat an indication that the end was near. While he was just 30 at the time, there is more to a boxer’s age than the candles on the cake. 

Diaz had spent years at the top, boxing top fighters like Javier Fortuna, Tevin Farmer, Shavkat Rakhimov and Gary Russell Jr. After the bracing back-to-back of Haney and Zepeda, perhaps something had to give.

After the Gesta setback, Diaz reset with a solid win over the overmatched Jerry Perez. While the opposition was nothing that will sneak into his highlight reel, ‘Jo Jo’ needed a win to keep his career alive. But a split loss to Jesus Antonio Perez, himself having lost three of his last four, might have left Diaz’s dreams on life support.

Unfortunately for the 31-year-old, I don’t think matters will get much better here. While we can’t know how Duarte will react to the Garcia defeat, he feels much fresher and not just because he is five years younger than his opponent. While Duarte ate a tough loss from a world class opponent last time out, Diaz’s recent form has spoken of a wider fading of his abilities. While he retains his durability and has kept some of the fights close, men who would never have beaten him in the past now do so as a matter of routine.

I feel like Duarte will do the same. I could see it being tight on the cards and I don’t believe he’ll get ‘Jo Jo’ out of there. But Diaz is patently not the fighter he once was while I feel like Duarte has more levels to show. I’m going for the 11/10 shot of a Duarte points victory in this pivotal crossroads clash, with the price implying a 47.6% probability.

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