Cordina vs Cacace Predictions: Joe to retain IBF title

IBF super featherweight champion Joe Cordina defends his title against Anthony Cacace on Monday, May 18. The bout takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on the Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk undercard. DAZN, TNT Sports Box Office and Sky Sports Box Office all televise the fight.

Here are my Cordina vs Cacace predictions ahead of the Ring of Fire card.

Last Saturday, Lauren Price became the 14th boxer from Wales to win a world championship. Now the country’s 13th all-time belt-holder, Joe Cordina, gets to add to the swelling national pride. From Jimmy Wilde to Joe Calzaghe to Cordina and Price, Wales’ boxing lineage is strong.

Cordina is a two-time holder of the IBF belt, despite having never lost a fight. He was somewhat unfairly stripped of the belt through injury after defeating Kenichi Ogawa. Considering the fact Cordina would not even be out of the ring for a year, while many other champions are far less active than that, it was a ridiculous move by the IBF.

But Cordina beat his successor, Tajikistan’s Shavkat Rakhimov, by split decision on his return. The 32-year-old followed that up with a successful first defence, beating Edward Vazquez via majority decision. Though that fight was not without controversy.

Vazquez was aggressive throughout, working Cordina hard from bell-to-bell. Some thought he had done enough to win and the usual shouts of “robbery” rung out on social media. As is often the case, those were somewhat exaggerated. But Cordina’s own appraisal that he had beaten Vazquez while at his worst felt fair.

Can Cacace go a step further than the excellent-but-beaten Vazquez? His record would suggest not. While Vazquez came in having gone to the wire with the highly-touted Raymond Ford, who is now a world champion, Cacace has been more of a domestic concern. 

That’s not to say he isn’t a fine fighter. A former British and IBO champion, he has racked up some fine wins at British and European level. But facing Cordina for a world belt is a huge step-up from where Cacace has operated. He is yet to face a world class fighter or a former title challenger. Going straight in with an unbeaten champion is a bold move.

Of course, it is impossible to know for sure where a fighter’s ceiling is until he has reached it. There has been an indication of where Cacace’s can be found. He lost a 2017 British and Commonwealth title fight to Martin J Ward via unanimous decision. 

But a boxer can evolve mightily in seven years. Cacace has six wins since, all by decision. It could and should have been more, but the COVID-19 pandemic decimated boxing activity for a long period. Cacace was one of hundreds of pros who suffered due to a massively pared-back schedule.

Still, there is nothing in Cacace’s ring history or performances that suggests he can take the title here. Cordina may have struggled last time out, but across his career he has looked too good for his challenger here. 

Neither man is a big puncher, which makes the 1/2 on the fight to go the distance appealing. As for an outcome, I’m leaning towards Cordina on points. I think it’ll be a comfortable night for the Welshman. An opportunity to strut his stuff in front of the influential Saudi boxing fraternity.

My pick is a 4/5 shot: Cordina on points. I feel like the champion is well-fixed to outbox Cacace and come away with his title and unbeaten record intact. Some huge unification fights await for Cordina once he takes care of business here.

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