Collazo vs Valdez Predictions: ‘El Pupilo’ will teach late replacement a lesson

Pound-for-pounder Oscar Collazo gets another late replacement opponent, as the WBA, WBO and The Ring strawweight kingpin takes on Neider Valdez. Original opponent Joey Canoy pulled out due to visa issues, leaving the under-equipped Valdez to take on one of the planet’s most potent boxers. DAZN will air the bout live from the Frontwave Arena in Oceanside, California.

Read on for my Collazo vs Valdez predictions as one of the world’s best gloves up and takes centre stage.

Collazo vs Valdez Odds

The diminutive Collazo is unsurprisingly a big favourite at 1/16 while the patchy Valdez is 12/1 to score the upset. The draw is marketed at 14/1, a result Valdez has tasted three times. 

Collazo vs Valdez Fight Preview

As we go to press, there is no concrete word on whether the WBA and WBO will sanction this bout as a world title fight. BoxRec and DAZN both list this as a championship fight, but there is no direct word from the sanctioning bodies on the subject yet.

You can understand the reticence, given Valdez’s poor recent record. The 25-year-old is 2-3-1 in his last six outings, having been knocked out in all three defeats. The wins came against a 4-1 opponent and a 0-1 foe. The draw was suffered opposite a 4-4 fighter. To say Valdez is fortunate to find himself here would be an understatement.

Is fortunate the right word when the task at hand is stepping in front of this strawweight whirlwind? Collazo is 14-0 with 11 knockouts. In unifying the WBO, WBA and The Ring 105lbs titles, he has scored seven knockouts in eight world title bouts. That includes a seventh-round knockout of current WBC king Melvin Jerusalem and becoming the first man to beat then-WBA kingpin Knockout CP Freshmart.

Collazo has been attempting to unify the division. Old rival Jerusalem was set to engage him in a rematch, but the bout fell through due to promotional wrangling. So Joey Canoy signed on the dotted line instead. When visa issues put paid to that bout, the promotion sought to bring in former title contender Luis Castillo. When a visa could not be secured for Castillo on such short notice, Valdez was handed the poisoned chalice in order to save the event and DAZN’s broadcast slot.

What we are left with is a showcase. Some will sell you the Rocky narrative. But if Messrs Douglas, Rahman and Turpin were the Balboas of their time, Valdez is more of a Spider Rico. We are not quite at Tim Tomashek levels, a local club fighter who was a few beers deep in the crowd when he received the shock call-up to immediately box then-WBO heavyweight champ Tommy Morrison (himself another Rocky alum, playing Tommy Gunn in the series’ nadir Rocky V). But Valdez would certainly be in the bottom-quarter of a ranking of world title challengers.

Full credit to the kid, this is a gigantic step-up in class. Valdez faces one of the sport’s most destructive forces on short notice and with the eyes of the world on him. A decent showing could unlock lucrative doors for the Mexican. Just ask Josh Padley, whose brave last-minute assignment against Shakur Stevenson saw him land a Matchroom contract. Valdez doesn’t have to win this fight to leave feeling like a victor. Which is probably for the best.

Collazo vs Valdez Full Card

Oscar Collazo vs Neider Valdez

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Joshua Edwards vs Garreth Payton

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Nikolai Terteryan vs TBA

Lorenzo Garcia vs Tylan Gilmore-Smith

Collazo vs Valdez Prediction

Valdez has very fast hands and some nice technique in offensive situations. But his chin is suspect and he is easily bullied. Erick Rosa moved him around the ring at will on the way to beating him. Valdez’s power is up for debate, too. While 12 knockouts from 15 wins looks good on paper, nine of the men who he has stopped were either debutants or had losing records.

Collazo has speed, power, precision, footwork and awkwardness. Valdez is fast, perhaps even faster with his hands. But I am unconvinced he has the artillery to trouble one of boxing’s most complete current champions. I like Collazo here in a one-sided affair. The champion is 1/16 for the victory.

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