Beterbiev vs Smith Predictions: Callum can shock the world

The year’s first truly massive boxing match is here, as Artur Beterbiev puts the WBC, IBF and WBO light heavyweight titles on the line against Liverpool’s Callum Smith. Betfred Insights broke the fight down in detail here. But now it is time to lay it on the line and offer definitive fight predictions ahead of this blockbuster match-up.

Beterbiev comes in with a fearsome reputation forged in 19 fights, all of which he has won by knockout. It is enough to make 1/2 on a stoppage win for the champion feel like a gimme, even at short odds. History tells you that if you step in the ring with Artur Beterbiev, you get knocked out. It’s that simple.

But is it really? For one, Callum Smith has never been knocked out in 30 professional fights. Only Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez has beaten him. Meeting the now-undisputed super middleweight champion at arguably his peak in 2020, ‘Mundo’ was handily outscored. The result cost him his WBA and The Ring belts, but Smith had never been knocked down while collecting those titles. He has proven that even at the highest level, he is durable.

Of course there is a first time for everything and Beterbiev always gets through with a clean shot eventually. It is hard to see any light heavyweight on the planet withstanding the pure power of the Russian-Canadian slugger. Smith to be knocked down is available at 2/7, with the markets agreeing that the Liverpudlian is unlikely to stand up to the assault.

But what of Beterbiev? Can he be hurt? Smith has shown an increase in power since growing into the light heavyweight division from his old super middleweight days. Lenin Castillo and Mathieu Bauderlique have both been brutally dispatched since Smith made the move.

Beterbiev meanwhile, is no stranger to hitting the deck. Britain’s Callum Johnson had him down in their 2018 war. Watching that fight back, it is striking how much quicker Beterbiev was at that stage. Can the champion avoid Smith’s power when he was getting caught by so readily at a time when his reflexes were stronger? 

Anthony Yarde also hurt Beterbiev multiple times before succumbing via stoppage last year. With Smith fresher, younger, quicker and with power of his own, surely at some point he will hurt Beterbiev? I’d wager it is inevitable, which makes 9/2 for both fighters to be knocked down an appealing prospect. This belief is bolstered by the fact neither fighter is the sort to exercise caution and make their opponent go looking for them. There will be a lot of punches in this one and both men could hit the deck.

As for a winner, my scout report outlined Beterbiev’s subtle decline. Recent clashes with Yarde and Marcus Browne showed a fighter getting hit more than he used to and increasingly relying on power to get him out of trouble. Beterbiev’s plight is redolent of Deontay Wilder’s recent fall. ‘The Bronze Bomber’ always found the shots he needed to win from behind, until he failed to do so against Tyson Fury and Joseph Parker. Smith is a gifted boxer with physical gifts that could make it very hard for the 38-year-old to keep up. 

This is why I am leaning towards a Callum Smith victory. It is always a tricky game picking an overwhelming favourite to lose. How do you go against a man who has not only never lost, but has never even let an opponent hear the final bell? But I think Smith is getting to the champion at the right time. Beterbiev is slowing down. Watch one of his fights from the 2010s and contrast it with his 2020s outings and that much is clear. Meanwhile, admittedly on limited evidence, there are signs Smith is peaking since moving up to 175 pounds.

Smith is 7/2 to get the job done in Canada this Saturday. A points win is a brave selection at 17/2, considering he would need to avoid Beterbiev’s power for 36 frantic minutes. But considering how durable Beterbiev is and allowing for his lack of speed and verve these days, it might just be the pick. He is there to be outboxed and Smith might just be the man to do what 19 others could not.

You can find all our latest boxing tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page