Baraou vs Eggington Predictions: Crossroads clash favours the German

Abass Baraou and Sam Eggington clash this Friday for the vacant European super welterweight championship. The protagonists are 29 and 30 years of age respectively, but this still has the feel of a crossroads clash. Baraou looks to be peaking at a time when Eggington is seeking a return to his former glory as a continental king.

Baraou emerged as a gifted amateur prospect, securing a European gold medal and a bronze at the World Championships before turning pro. The German took to the paid code with aplomb initially, amassing a fine 9-0 record. Wins over former IBF champion Carlos Molina and ex-world title challenger Ali Funeka strengthened his claim. 

But Baraou took a step too far, or his team did, when matching their fighter against former WBA interim champion Jack Culcay. Despite giving up an experience edge to his world class countryman, Baraou ran him close. But it wasn’t enough, as our subject lost a split decision to Culcay. 

Since then Baraou has recalibrated, competing at a lower level as he looks to build back up into title contention. The 29-year-old has gone 5-0 since the Culcay defeat, with three wins coming inside the distance. Three of those bouts were eight-rounders with the other two being scheduled for 10. This Friday, Baraou competes over 12 rounds for the first time since the Culcay defeat.

Eggington could probably teach Baraou a little something about rebuilding from a loss. ‘The Savage’ is better than his 34-8 record suggests. His purple patch came between late 2016 and mid-2017. In consecutive fights, Eggington stopped former amateur standout Frankie Gavin, ex-world champion Paulie Malignaggi and European welterweight king Ceferino Rodriguez. 

Eggington couldn’t sustain this fine form, losing his newly-won title to Mohamed Mimoune via split decision in his next fight. His career has undergone a series of high and lows since. Sam was stopped by former world champion Liam Smith in five rounds and lost a Fight of the Year contender with Ted Cheeseman. But he followed that reverse up with solid wins over common Baraou foe Carlos Molina and Ashley Theophane. His last defeat came against Dennis Hogan by majority decision in an IBO title shot. Eggington was mocked in the aftermath for claiming to have only watched 40 seconds of his opponent while training for the bout.

‘The Savage’ would do well to take a more considered look at Baraou ahead of this one. Both men come into the fight in solid form. Baraou has won his last five while Eggington has won two from two since the Hogan defeat. Despite their similar ages, you do wonder if Eggington’s history of hard, championship fights will tell. Baraou certainly seems the fresher of the two going into this one. 

Baraou has been moved carefully since the Culcay defeat. If he is being matched with Eggington, it’s because his team feel he is ready for the challenge. I peg him as ready for it too and feel that he will leave with the European title. Baraou can punch, but has usually gone the distance with the better fighters he has met. I count Eggington among those and I’m picking Baraou to win this one via decision at 6/5. But with Eggington involved, expect this to be an absorbing contest with the odd twist and turn along the way.

You can find all our latest boxing tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page