Australia vs Italy Prediction: Wallabies to bounce back

 | Friday 17th July 2026, 14:33

Friday 17th July 2026, 14:33

Having suffered a 42-26 home defeat at the hands of France, Australia will be looking for a response in Perth on Saturday morning (6:10pm local, 11:10am BST, ITV1) as they prepare to host Italy in the Nations Championship at HBF Park.

Below are my Australia vs Italy predictions, as well as all the essential team news and match odds.

Australia vs Italy Betting Tips

  • Australia -15 handicap @ 5/6

Prices accurate at time of publication

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Australia vs Italy Odds

Australia are the overwhelming favourites at 2/13 for the win on Saturday, while Italy are 9/2 to secure a memorable and shock success at HBF Park.

A draw in Perth is 33/1, while the Wallabies to be leading at half-time and full-time is available at 4/11.

Team News

Australia start with Angus Bell, Brandon Paenga-Amosa and Allan Alaalatoa in the front row, with locks Josh Canham and Jeremy Williams in the engine room.

Rob Valetini, Carlo Tizzano and skipper Harry Wilson start in the back row, with Ryan Lonergan and Declan Meredith combining in the half-backs.

Len Ikitau and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii form a powerful centre combination, while the Wallabies have back three of Harry Potter, Max Jorgensen and Tom Wright.

Meanwhile, visitors Italy have gone with Muhamed Hasa, Gianmarco Lucchesi and Marco Riccioni in the front row, with locks Giulio Marini and Federico Ruzza in the second row.

Riccardo Favretto, captain Michele Lamaro and Ross Vintcent complete the pack, while Alessandro Garbisi and Paolo Garbisi start in the half-backs.

Paolo Odogwu starts in the centres alongside Juan Ignacio Brex, while the Azzurri have a back three of Monty Ioane, Louis Lynagh and Lorenzo Pani.

Australia -15 handicap @ 5/6

With nine defeats in their last 10 games, it has been a tough run for the Wallabies heading to Saturday’s clash in Western Australia.

However, there are plenty of reasons to suggest the Aussies can get back to winning ways by overcoming an improving Italy side, who have beaten the Wallabies in the last two meetings between these nations.

Joe Schmidt’s side suffered an agonising 33-31 defeat to Ireland in their opening Nations Championship game, before a 42-26 loss against the French last weekend.

The Wallabies will certainly be battle-hardened ahead of a clash with an Italy side who lost 27-10 against Japan in their Nations Championship opener, before a 47-17 drubbing at the hands of New Zealand.

Australia will have to tighten up in defence, as they have conceded 33 or more points in their last four games, a record which makes it extremely hard to win Test matches.

However, given the attacking talent they have on show, with the likes of Suaalii, Jorgensen and Wright in a star-studded backline that tested the British & Irish Lions in last year’s Test series, the Wallabies to win and cover the -15 handicap on offer here gets the nod.

Australia vs Italy - Handicap 3-Way (Rolling Middle Line)
Australia -15

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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