Clacton By-Election Odds: Nigel Farage & Reform UK are 1/6 to Win

Oh man. Does Nigel Farage not know that all of our attention is on the World Cup? We should be caring about Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham rather than preparing for a by-election but here we are.

The leader of Reform UK has resigned his seat as the Member of Parliament for Clacton but intends to stand again as he looks for the people of the Essex seaside town to show the establishment that they back him. Will it pay off? Let’s check out the opening Clacton by-election odds on Betfred…

For the live prices and to bet on this event - please check out the latest Clacton by-election Odds over on betfred.com

Editor's Note: Following publication, Rupert Lowe has announced that Restore Britain will not stand in this by-election but intend to do so in a second by-election later this year when/if Nigel Farage is forced to resign following the conclusion of the parliamentary investigation.

Farage has long been a gambler when it comes to his political career but this is a proper roll of the dice. After a stunning exposé by The Sunday Times at the weekend, where they revealed that he did not properly declare benefits provided by 32-year-old George Cottrell, who is a convicted fraudster. That report has caused him to face intense scrutiny ever since.

A livestream just after 2pm today saw the 62-year-old rail against the media and outright say that they are out to get him. That always makes me smirk considering his rise was heavily fuelled by the media, with the likes of the BBC bending over backwards to ensure that his view was heard despite low poll numbers. Watching his performance, he made it out that he's just a martyr and it was one big pity party.

Rather than allow the Parliamentary standards commissioner to fully investigate the issue though, to see if he’s guilty or non-guilty of any improper conduct, the MP for Clacton has chosen to get ahead of the story and make it an ‘us vs the world’ vote and asked the people of the Essex town to back him and show the establishment that they are happy for him to continue representing them on the Green Benches.

To me, it stinks of him knowing he’s about to get the book thrown at him and trying to get ahead of the story and dictate the narrative.

It is a stunning move but the opening odds here at Betfred seem to suggest that it is a clever-calculated move. The traders give him an 86% chance to hold on to the seat, he first won in the 2024 General Election. We have him as short as 1/6 to win the upcoming by-election but let me tell you this, I wouldn’t touch them at such a short price with the proverbial ten-foot bargepole. This by-election is nowhere near as straightforward as the opening prices dictate.

Firstly, Restore Britain aren’t going to go away. We saw how they made plenty of noise in the Makerfield by-election just last month. Leader Rupert Lowe has already put out a statement saying that they intend to stand and that Nigel Farage is essentially, pretty self-centred. There is clearly no love lost there and they can syphon off a significant percentage of the vote from Reform UK.

I would not be stunned if they could clear 15% of the total vote and that could be enough to change the winner. We’ve opened with them at 16/1 and that feels long. Plenty of natural Reform UK voters do not believe they are right-wing enough and they'll be numerous of these in Clacton.

Between the two extreme right-wing parties, we have the other right-wing party - the Conservatives - and they will enter this by-election buoyed by their sensational victory in Aberdeen South last month. It has shown that the Tories are not a busted flush and could still win in the right circumstances. We have them at 5/1 and that is way too long. They should be much nearer the 3/1 or 5/2 bracket. Maybe even shorter. They are the bet to place at this point.

Farage won in 2024 with 21,225 votes, beating the Tories by 8,405 for a very comprehensive victory. That win though came when the Conservative Party was at an extremely low ebb after years of scandals and a rotating cast of leaders that would make the Sugababes blush with the rate of turnover. To be fair to Kemi Badenoch, she’s more than steadied the ship and made them electable again.

Andy Burnham will surely be Prime Minister by the time the by-election is held but that is unlikely to move the needle for who is going to win. Labour’s best performance with the current boundaries was 25% in 2010. They won’t be a factor and nor will the Greens or the Lib Dems.

This is about which right-wing party can win. Reform UK (with Farage as the candidate) are the favourites and rightly so. His lack of time and investment in the seat over his two years of representing them though will harm him. Enough to cause him to lose? I’m not sure but this’ll be a lot closer than the market expects.