Maroons vs Blues Prediction: Jojo joy expected in 3/1 Queensland victory

 | Tuesday 7th July 2026, 7:00

Tuesday 7th July 2026, 7:00

Maroons vs blues state of origin game iii

Everything goes on the line in the 2026 State of Origin decider on Wednesday as Queensland host New South Wales in a winner-takes-all Game III at Suncorp Stadium (8:05pm local, 11:05am BST, live on Sky Sports Action & Main Event).

The Blues’ comeback win in Game I was quickly forgotten when Billy Slater’s side handed them a hammering at the MCG three weeks ago. Below are my Maroons vs Blues predictions for Game III, plus Betfred’s match odds and the latest team news.

Maroons vs Blues Betting Tips

  • Maroons by 13+ @ 9/5
  • Maroons -5.5 & Jojo Fifita To Score A Try @ 3/1

*odds correct at time of publishing

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Maroons vs Blues Odds

The bookies have Queensland down to win a 26th title, with Betfred slating a Maroons victory at 8/15.

The Blues are 13/8, which implies a 38.1% probability, while the draw in 80 minutes is at 16/1.

In the regular two-way handicap market, the home side are giving up a 5.5-point start in return for lengthened odds of 5/6. NSW are 10/11 to win with the extra edge.

Team News

While Queensland coach Slater dropped a bombshell in the past week when admitting he doesn’t know if he’ll lead his state into next year’s series, there is nothing earth-shattering about his team selection.

He goes with the same starting XIII which won Game II, with just a couple of changes on the interchange bench to speak of. There, Jeremiah Nanai and Pat Carrigan replace Lindsay Collins and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, while Corey Horsburgh is the last reserve standing at No.20.

Rugby League Odds

Laurie Daley makes multiple changes to the Blues lineup but looks set to stick with Isaah Yeo ahead of Cam Murray at loose forward despite much talk about the need for change at 13.

Bradman Best, Stephen Crichton and Liam Martin come in, with no Brian To’o, Api Koroisau, Dylan Lucas or Kotoni Staggs in the squad after the 44-24 loss in Melbourne.

Haumole Olakau’ata and Blayke Brailey are added to the bench.

Maroons by 13+ @ 9/5

The Blues have flattered to deceive in this series so far.

Only when Kalyn Ponga was sent off in the opener in Sydney did they really seize the initiative, and at the MCG they were cut to shreds as Queensland ran in seven tries.

The Maroons have all the momentum, they have proved themselves to have the right combinations in the right places, and after their six second-half scores in Game II one has to believe they will be as confident as they could be arriving at Lang Park.

So I can see a big Queensland win in the decider, with the slight caveat that this 13-point win will be in the balance until the end if Daley makes the late switch to start with Murray over Yeo at lock.

Maroons vs Blues - Winning Margin 1-12
Maroons by 13+

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Maroons -5.5 & Jojo Fifita To Score A Try @ 3/1

I was all ready to go with Jojo Fifita for an anytime try at 5/4, but then Betfred added this Pick Your Punt option at 3/1.

Given the argument I’ve already made for a Maroons win over reasonable comfort, a one-score handicap added to a touchdown for the Titans winger looks like terrific value at 3/1.

Maroons vs Blues - Pick Your Punt
Maroons -5.5 & Fifita Try

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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