Japan vs Italy Prediction: Jones absence will hurt Japan hopes

The Prince Chichibu Memorial Ground in Tokyo is the venue for Saturday’s Nations Championship clash between Japan and Italy (09:00 BST, live on ITV 4). Just two places separate these two sides in the world rankings and this promises to be a tigjt affair.

The Cherry Blossoms will be without coach Eddie Jones, due to disciplinary issues, and his absence could help swing the game in the Azzurri’s favour. Read on for my Japan vs Italy predictions.

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Italy have had the upper hand over Japan in previous meetings, with the Azzurri winning eight of their 10 contests.

Being on home soil though should make a big difference to the hosts, who have won four of their last eight internationals in Japan.

Italy go into this tournament having beaten both England and Scotland in this year’s Six Nations, although both of those victories came in Rome.

Japan vs Italy Odds

Japan, currently ranked 12th in the world, are available at 2/1 to gain a victory in their first ever Nations Championship match.

Italy, who have lost their last five matches on the road, are on offer at 2/5 to take the points, while the draw can be backed at 20/1.

Team News

Forwards coach Neal Hatley will take charge of Japan, in the absence of the banned Jones, and he has handed a debut to an uncapped fly-half.

Ryunosuke Ito, a 21-year-old student, will wear the number 10 jersey and is one of four uncapped players in the Japan squad.

Lock Warner Dearns - who won the Super Rugby title with Wellington - will captain the hosts, while the Toulouse player Naoto Saito will start at scrum-half.

The 37-year-old Michael Leitch has been named on the bench as he looks to win his 93rd international cap.

The Italian XV will also include some new faces, with winger Malik Faissal and flanker Alessandro Ortombina both handed starts.

Coach Gonzalo Quesada has plenty of experience elsewhere in his starting XV, with captain Michele Lamaro winning his 55th cap.

Paolo Garbisi, who also has 54 appearances for his country, starts at fly-half while Exeter’s Stephen Varney has been named as Italy’s scrum-half

Italy to win @ 2/5

Defeat to Wales in their final match saw Italy fail to claim their best-ever Six Nations finish, as a win would have seen them take third spot.

There were plenty of positives though to come out of that campaign and they will look to build on that in the inaugural Nations Championship.

Performances on the road has been one area needing improvement for Italy, whose last away win came over Namibia in June 2025.

The last meeting between these two sides came back in the summer of 2024, when Italy ran out 42-14 victors in Sapporo.

Italy to win by 6-10 Points @ 4/1

It’s fair to say that Japan have improved since that last meeting with the Azzurri, highlighted by a thrilling 25-23 victory over Georgia in Tbilisi in their last international.

Prior to that win, they were beaten by a single point in Cardiff against Wales and lost by just four points to Australia when they met in Tokyo last year.

Stand-in coach Hatley insisted this week that “a big part of our DNA is attack”, so you can expect the hosts to try and take the game to their opponents.

Italy’s experience though could prove decisive in what looks like being a tight clash between two improving teams.