Uruguay vs Spain Prediction: Biesla’s men to rack up the Booking Points

After a lucklustre display against Cape Verde, Spain came out against Saudi Arabia and had the game won by the first hydration break. Saturday's clash (1AM - ITV), will surely be more challenging and our Spanish-based Football Expert believes it'll be a tight match against Uruguay.

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon delivers his Uruguay vs Spain Predictions including a single, Bet Builder Double and what he thinks the final score might be...

2026 World Cup

Group H

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	Form
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	5	7	D W W W
2	Cape Verde	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3	D D D
3	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2	D D L
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2	D L D

View All Groups

Spain head to Mexico for their final game in Group H. They've got work to do to clinch top spot, and they can expect few favours from a Uruguay side that is fighting to stay in the competition. 

With four points on the board, there is no danger of La Roja missing out on a place in the knockout stage. However, the outcome of this game will determine their potential path to World Cup glory. 

Victory would ensure Luis de la Fuente's side top the group and face either Austria or Algeria in the next round. However, defeat in Guadalajara could potentially set up a mouthwatering round-of-32 clash against holders Argentina. 

There is little doubt about which of those options Spain would prefer. They are still finding their feet at this tournament, with key players fighting back to full fitness. After a shaky start in the form of a goalless draw against Cape Verde, the European champions were much more convincing on matchday two. 

With Lamine Yamal returning to the starting lineup following a hamstring injury, they swept past Saudi Arabia with three first-half goals setting up a 4-0 win. Yamal got on the scoresheet, but was replaced at the interval with his coach keen not to overwork the teenager, whose last club appearance was back in April. 

Mikel Oyarzabal also netted twice before being replaced at the break. It's only over the past 18 months that the 29-year-old has emerged as the starting forward for Spain. The Real Sociedad man often flies under the radar, but a return of 31 goals in 51 appearances for club and country since the start of last season highlights his class. 

What Uruguay would give for a striker capable of those sorts of numbers at the highest level. The likes of Diego Forlán, Edinson Cavani and Luis Suárez spearheaded their challenge at the World Cup for many years. Darwin Núñez felt like the natural heir earlier in his career. However, his career has stalled, and he was even omitted from Al-Hilal's league squad in the second half of the 2025/26 season. 

Marcelo Bielsa still started the former Liverpool man in the opening game against Saudi Arabia, but a wasteful team display saw the South Americans only draw 1-1, despite having 27 shots. 

Núñez dropped to the bench against Cape Verde on matchday two, as La Celeste aimed to book their ticket into the next round. However, individual errors contributed to a 2-2 draw against the tournament debutants, who gave as good as they got in an entertaining encounter. 

The only player who has truly excelled for the two-time world champions so far at this tournament has been Maxi Araújo. The Sporting wideman has scored two of his team's three goals, and assisted the other one for Agustín Canobbio. His battle with Spain's right-back is one to look out for, and it could hold the key to Uruguay's hopes of progress. 

*You can check out all of the live World Cup Odds across all of our markets over on betfred.com

Team News: 

Spain switched to something resembling a 4-2-3-1 structure last time out, with Dani Olmo coming into the side. That allowed Pedri to operate slightly deeper, in a position closer to the one he's used to at Barcelona. Along with Yamal's return, that contributed to a livelier showing from La Roja. 

We could potentially see an unchanged lineup in Guadalajara, although De la Fuente may consider bringing Nico Williams back into the team on the left flank. New Liverpool signing Víctor Muñoz remains sidelined with a hamstring injury. 

Uruguay will be missing Giorgian de Arrascaeta and Ronald Araújo due to injuries again. Those issues have hampered them at this World Cup, but they will still feel like they've badly underachieved in only taking two points from games against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. 

Bielsa will surely be contemplating changes. José María Giménez may come into the defence, while Núñez is pushing for a recall in attack, with Real Oviedo striker Fede Viñas yet to score in two outings at this tournament. 

FT

Uruguay

0 - 1

Spain

Match Odds: 

Spain are priced 8/13 to win this game. You can back the Draw at 11/4, while Uruguay are on offer at 5/1 to kick their World Cup into life with a vital win. 

The South Americans are priced at 6/5 to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market. They are averaging 21.5 attempts per game at this tournament so far, and Bielsa's men are on offer at 5/1 to have the most shots in this match. 

You can back Spain to win to nil at odds of 13/10. La Roja are also on offer at 16/5 to win both halves, while they're priced at 12/5 to score over 2.5 goals. 

After his brace against Saudi Arabia, Oyarzabal leads the way as the 1/1 favourite in the Anytime Goalscorer (Sub Switch) market. Alternative options include Yamal at 13/10, and Olmo at 9/4. 

You can also back Uruguay's Maxi Araújo to continue his fine tournament by scoring or assisting at odds of 17/5. 

*You can bet on this match and get all of the live Uruguay vs Spain Odds over on betfred.com...

Bet 1 - Over 1.5 goals & Federico Valverde 2+ shots @ 0.95/1 

A draw would likely be enough for Uruguay to progress, but that's not certain. In any case, it's hard to see a team coached by Bielsa simply parking the bus and playing for a point. He'll likely make some tweaks from the opening matches, but will still want his players to press aggressively and try to force mistakes from this Spanish side. 

That should help create a more stretched game than the opening matches involving La Roja at this tournament. With Yamal likely to be ready to play most of the game, it should be a difficult 90 minutes for the Uruguayan defence. 

At the other end of the pitch, La Celeste will ask some questions. They've been using Valverde in an advanced midfield role and he's had 10 shots across the opening two games. The Real Madrid man has been given plenty of licence to shoot from range in dead-ball situations. 

With that in mind, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Over 1.5 goals and Valverde to have 2+ shots. 

Bet 2 - Team with most booking points - Uruguay @ 4/5 

Spain have only picked up one yellow card so far at this tournament. They tend to spend so much time on the ball that there is rarely much need to dive into challenges. 

If they prove too strong for Uruguay in this contest and work up a clear lead, I can see Bielsa's side growing frustrated as their World Cup dreams start to die. If it turns into a more competitive affair, there's also a strong chance that the underdogs will resort to tactical fouls and some gamesmanship. In that situation, they'll likely seek to slow the game down in the latter stages as they battle to hold on to a result. 

Either way, there looks to be value in backing Uruguay to be the team that finishes with the most booking points at 4/5.