Independiente Valle vs Rosario Central Prediction: Di Maria to dazzle in card-crazy contest

Top spot is up for grabs in Group H of the Copa Libertadores as leaders Rosario Central head to the Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito to take on Independiente del Valle. Heading into the final round of fixtures on Wednesday, Rosario are three points clear at the summit, but if the Ecuadorian hosts win, they will overtake their Argentine counterparts by virtue of a superior head-to-head record, with the two sides playing out a goalless draw in last month’s reverse meeting.

Below are my Independiente Valle vs Rosario Central predictions, supported by team news and match odds, ahead of this group game (5pm local, 11pm BST).

Team News

Juan Cazares, Richard Schunke, Guido Villar, Jean Arroyo and Patrik Mercado (all knee) are out injured for Independiente Valle, as is Joaquin Pombo (shoulder).

Football Odds

As for Rosario Central, Juan Komar (heart), Juan Gimenez (knee), Lisandro Duarte (unspecified) and Agustin Sandez (suspended) miss out.

Head-to-head record

The two sides drew 0-0 in Rosario last month in their first-ever meeting.

Independiente Valle vs Rosario Central Odds

Independiente Valle, who have won both of their home games so far in Group H, beating Venezuelan side Universidad Central and Paraguayan outfit Libertad 3-1 and 4-1, respectively, are 10/11 favourites, implying a 52.4% probability of success.

Rosario Central, who have a perfect away record in the group stage, edging out Libertad 1-0 and easing past Universidad Central 3-0, are 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, to triumph in Quite, with the draw offered at 9/4.

Former Real Madrid and PSG star Angel Di Maria, back with his boyhood club Rosario, is 9/1 to Score First, boosted from 8/1.

Total Cards Over/Under +4.5 - Over 4.5 @ 1/1

All five of Rosario’s Group H games have gone over 4.5 cards, including last month’s reverse fixture with Independiente at the Gigante de Arroyito, where five were shown; two yellows apiece, and one red for the visitors.

Independiente, meanwhile, have seen two of their five group matches finish with at least five cards.

In a top-of-the-table clash, I’m expecting more fireworks between the two teams on Wednesday, with over 4.5 cards a strong possibility.

Remember, with Betfred, a yellow card counts as one, a red card as two, and two yellows resulting in a red amount to three.

So, if a player is booked twice and is sent off, and there is just one other booking in the match, four cards have been shown, which would go under the 4.5 line.

Anytime Goalscorer - Angel Di Maria (ROS) @ 10/3

This looks like a good price for a guy who has scored twice in four Group H appearances and three times in his last six games across all competitions.

Di Maria, who turned 38 years old in February, has struck 14 goals in 35 games for Rosario since leaving Benfica for a second time in the summer of 2025.

The 2022 World Cup winner takes penalties, too, converting six of the seven he has taken for Rosario, including one in the Libertadores victory at Universidad Central on 29 April, although he did see his last one saved by Libertad goalkeeper Rodrigo Morinigo on 5 May.

Still, one saved penalty is unlikely to see him taken off spot-kick duties, and even in open play, he remains a big danger to the opposition’s goal.

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