US PGA Championship Sunday Betting Tips: Experience key in 2/1 double

Alex Smalley carries a two-shot lead into the final round of the PGA Championship, in what promises to be a mad dash for the finishing line at Aronimink Golf Club today.

Read on for my US PGA Championship Sunday betting tips...

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

*You can bet on the tournament and check out the latest US PGA Championship 2026 Odds over on betfred.com

Leaderboard after round three:

1st – Alex Smalley (-6)

T2 – Matti Schmid (-4)

T2 – Nick Taylor (-4)

T2 – Jon Rahm (-4)

T2 – Aaron Rai (-4)

T2 – Ludvig Aberg (-4)

T7 – Rory McIlroy (-3)

T7 – Xander Schauffele (-3)

T7 – Patrick Reed (-3)

T7 – Maverick McNealy (-3)

In a major championship like no other, 30 players still sit within five of the lead with just 18 holes left to play. However, it’s a man chasing his first pro victory, Alex Smalley, who remains on top.

Entering the third round in a share of the lead, Smalley succumbed to nerves early doors, bogeying three of his first four holes to slide down the leaderboard. He recovered in impressive fashion, making seven birdies over his final 12 holes to build that advantage as we start round four.

Improvements have been easy to find for the former No. 12 amateur, but this would still come as a huge shock (and immense achievement) if he were to make his first title win a major championship. I’m fascinated to find out how he copes with the pressure.

Where do we even start with that mammoth list of challengers? The biggest moves of the day were made by unlikely contenders Nick Taylor and Matti Schmid, as each fired a five-under 65 to climb into 2nd place. Though it’s the name of Jon Rahm who stands out among the nearest contenders, as he looks to capitalise on his best chance of a major win since 2023.

Ludvig Aberg looked in complete control of his game for most of the third round and has every chance of his own major breakthrough. Although, he’ll have to avoid the careless errors that crept into his game on the back nine yesterday. Meanwhile, the quiet and unassuming Aaron Rai aims to end an over 100-year wait to become just the second

English winner of this event, after Jim Barnes won the first two renewals in 1916 and 1919.

Rory McIlroy continued his ascent up the standings following his slow start, backing up his three-under 67 with a 66 to sit on -3. He’s now just three off the lead as he chases a seventh major win that would put him joint-seventh on the all-time list. Two further major champions accompany him on that number: the dangerous Xander Schauffele and Patrick Reed, alongside halfway leader Maverick McNealy.

Other notable displays include Justin Rose shooting a 65 to move into 11th place on -2. Last week’s Truist Championship winner Kristoffer Reitan joins him in that position, as do major winners Cameron Smith, Hideki Matsuyama and Martin Kaymer.

The leaderboard is so bunched that despite disappointing over-par rounds for fancied players such as Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young and Justin Thomas, they are still only five/six shots off the lead. They could post a low one early and watch a group of leaders with mixed experience struggle their way home.

I’ve frankly never seen anything like this, and it feels like an impossible task to try and predict who will walk away with the Wanamaker Trophy from such a long list of contenders. With that being said, I’m certainly going to enjoy watching it all unfold at Aronimink later today.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Alex Smalley 9/2, Jon Rahm 5/1, Ludvig Aberg 11/2, Rory McIlroy 13/2, Xander Schauffele 11/1, Scottie Scheffler 14/1, Nick Taylor 16/1, Aaron Rai 16/1

Having started the week as a 150/1 shot, few could’ve predicted that Alex Smalley would arrive at the final round as the narrow favourite at 9/2. He’s followed by an elite list of players, with Jon Rahm the 5/1 second-favourite, while Ludvig Aberg is the third-favourite at 11/2.

The major-winning trio of Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler are next in the betting, but you could honestly make a sound case for any of the top 20 or so in the betting.

It’s a day that is packed with possibility and unpredictability, and with Aberg, Gotterup and even Koepka still live from the outright picks, I’m happy to let it run.

Instead, it’s back to the two-balls and I’ve picked out two players I feel should have the beating of their respective playing partners in this final round.

Justin Thomas to beat Aldrich Potgieter

First up, I’m taking Justin Thomas to get the better of Aldrich Potgieter. The young South African’s unsustainable putting display in round one has slowly caught up with him as the week has progressed and, with his waywardness off the tee also becoming more problematic, the experience of Thomas should win through.

Each of these players started the week strongly, as Potgieter gained over five strokes with the putter to share the first round lead, while Thomas hit the ball well on his way to a one-under par opening round.

Thomas backed that up with another 69 in round two as Potgieter recorded a solid level-par round to stay within one of the lead. However, both players struggled on moving day, with Thomas firing a 72 and Potgieter a 73 – leaving each of them on level par, six off the lead.

Potgieter’s power makes him the standout driver of the two, but his inaccuracy can lead to plenty of trouble around here. JT is outperforming him in each other area throughout the season and that has translated to this week.

Whilst both of these players have regressed over the course of the event, if we remove Potgieter’s incredible putting display on Thursday, it’s Thomas who has been the steadier all-round player. He’s also a two-time winner of this championship compared to debutant Potgieter still chasing his first major top-50 finish.

All things considered, he looks value to take down this two-ball at 4/6.

Kristoffer Reitan to beat Chris Kirk

Kristoffer Reitan and Chris Kirk both shot the joint-best rounds of the day on Saturday, with their five-under 65s moving them into contention just four off the lead.

That said, it’s the Norwegian who arrives as the more confident player after his heroics at Quail Hollow last week. He’s also a superior putter and with the long game warming up in the last two rounds, I fancy this proven Sunday performer to come out on top of this battle.

Reitan certainly appeared to be suffering a little hangover from his victory at the Truist Championship on Thursday, firing a one-over 71 due to a subdued ball-striking display. This picked up significantly in round two, as he ranked 5th in GIR, 7th in SG: Ball Striking and 10th in SG: Approach, but short-game struggles stopped him making any progress up the leaderboard.

He put it all together yesterday, maintaining that quality with the long game to again rank 7th in SG: Ball Striking, marrying it with a ranking of 8th in SG: Putting to shoot a five-under-par round that included two eagles.

Kirk opened with rounds of 73 and 70 before also finding that excellent 65 on moving day. He is the best iron player in the field this week but has been found wanting in every other area, save for a spike with the putter to rank 4th on the greens in round three.

For a player who ranks 136th in SG: Putting for the season, it would be a surprise to see him repeat that today. Reitan, on the other hand, ranked 34th with the putter on the DP World Tour last season, and the club has warmed up recently on the PGA Tour, ranking 37th in this field across the last three months.

That makes him far more likely to keep up those improvements on the greens. When we combine this with his progressive ball striking and a top-20 ranking in round four scoring across the last 12 months, he could be a real threat from off the pace.

You can check out Jamie's full US PGA Championship Preview here...